My Monday blog

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Music historians recognize the late Bing Crosby as the industry's original laid-back crooner.

However, if Bing were alive today, he'd be singin' the blues about the current horse racing meet named in his honor.

Bing Crosby Season, a syrupy way Del Mar markets its fall season, is striking mostly sour notes.

Racetrack management yesterday canceled its Thursday card for the second time in as many weeks.

Cancellation of the November 21 and November 28 (Thanksgiving Day) eight-race programs reduces the number of racing days in Del Mar's boutique meet from 15 to 13.

Skeptics place an emphasis on the first syllable in boutique (BOO-teek) to voice displeasure after the racetrack issued a press release to explain the curious cancellations.

Del Mar management cited a weather forecast, which predicted rain five or six days in advance, for the decision to abort the Thursday programs.

Call it a trifecta of fake news, propaganda and downright deception.

Never before in the 82-year history of Del Mar racing, dating to 1937 when Bing Crosby's voice dominated the radio and television airwaves, has racing been canceled at Del Mar due to inclement weather.

The stormy weather was a convenient excuse for a much bigger problem with California racing: a severe shortage of healthy horses.

Why the parade of four and five-horse fields in southern California?

Some are blaming an unsafe racing surface at Santa Anita Park where 30 horses met their demise during a marathon meet last winter and spring.

Others say the real problem involves the fragile nature of overmedicated horses participating in cutthroat competition.

Still others blame recent pressure from animal activist groups that cause weak racetrack administrations to make rash decisions and adopt overreaching policies.

Again, why is Del Mar canceling two important racing dates from its fall meet?

Stormy weather, according to the racetrack's Twitter feed.

Total nonsense.

And the lame excuse is emblematic of an industry unable and unwilling to confront its problems or deal with the truth while simultaneously deceiving its customer base.

Not surprisingly, SoCal-based trainer Peter Miller has sent a string of 25 horses to Churchill Downs.

Fellow trainers Doug O'Neill, Phil D'Amato and Bob Hess, Jr. are looking for opportunities elsewhere.

Jock Martin Garcia has moved his tack to Kentucky while Joe Talamo will ride the upcoming meet at Oaklawn Park.

Only 46 horses competed on last Friday's eight-race card after 18 scratches decimated the November 22 program.

And the most disturbing number of all from last Friday's action: Only 2,275 patrons passed through the Del Mar turnstiles where Bing Crosby once greeted a huge crowd and a nationwide television audience (NBC) during Opening Day festivities in 1937.

It's time for California's horse racing leaders to demand stricter drug policies and fewer racing dates, a pair of obvious initiatives aimed to offer a quality product free from corruption, contamination and catastrophe.

Del Mar can launch the California comeback by telling the simple truth.

Or it can continue to live the lie that has become California racing.
 
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Viejo Dinosaur

EOG Master
Lived in Southern California from 1976-1979 during my military service...Been many, many times at various horse tracks in the area...Del Mar definitely my favorite place to enjoy a day at the races...Very sad to see what has happened to the horse industry there....this is definitely rock bottom for the industry....hard to imagine better times ahead....
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Those were the days, Arturo.

I first arrived in SoCal in the decade of the eighties.

Hollywood Gold Cups drew crowds of 80,000-plus.
 
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John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Taking the product to the people (simulcast wagering) instead of having the people come to the product had a downside.
 

blueline

EOG Master
people arent going to invest an entire day to play a game they dont understand and see 10 mins total of actual racing
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
My biggest gripe with horse racing is one I sense is shared by many others - those not "so-called" experts.

I don't like the fact I can bet a horse at, say, 20-1 odds but yet the horse closes at 5-1 and that is what I have him (or her) at. In all other sports when you walk away from the counter you know what your payout will be if you win. If I bet the Broncos +3 and they go to -3 or +7 I still have the Broncos +3. Not in horse racing although the most accurate comparison would be betting $110 to win $100 on the Broncos +3, having them cover and then being told even though you bet the Broncos -110 they actually went off -150 so now instead of getting $100 I get around $73-ish.

If the books did that they would be out of business by Monday.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
My biggest gripe with horse racing is one I sense is shared by many others - those not "so-called" experts.

I don't like the fact I can bet a horse at, say, 20-1 odds but yet the horse closes at 5-1 and that is what I have him (or her) at. In all other sports when you walk away from the counter you know what your payout will be if you win. If I bet the Broncos +3 and they go to -3 or +7 I still have the Broncos +3. Not in horse racing although the most accurate comparison would be betting $110 to win $100 on the Broncos +3, having them cover and then being told even though you bet the Broncos -110 they actually went off -150 so now instead of getting $100 I get around $73-ish.

If the books did that they would be out of business by Monday.


That's the nature of the parimutuel concept, Wink.

Horseplayers accept the risk.

The situation worsened with the explosion of exotic wagering in the 1980's or thereabouts, thus depressing win pools and making the odds fluctuate more wildly.

Also, the lack of investment in technology to process wagers at a faster pace is a concern that should be addressed.

It's a terrible look when an odds-on favorite drifts up to 6/5 on the far turn after getting burned up in a speed duel.

I sometimes chuckle that horseplayers bemoan a late drop in win pool odds, but rarely say a word when the odds shift in their favor.

Additionally, horseplayers don't say anything if they lose 25-50% of expected value in the exacta pool.

Only the win prices are scrutinized.

Final note: Fixed odds were available for a short time at one race book in Las Vegas (the ill-fated Sport of Kings) until the property ceased operation due to financial reasons.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
CA is pussafied by the left. Nobody can stand to see the poor little horsie get hit and have to run.


Having toured the backstretch at both Del Mar and Santa Anita, I can attest that horses in California are treated better than the homeless in California.
 

cheapseats

EOG Master
I always thought the 1989 ( or about ) tax law change with respect to passive and non passive income/expense was the beginning of the end for racing.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
I always thought the 1989 ( or about ) tax law change with respect to passive and non passive income/expense was the beginning of the end for racing.


The 1986 Tax Reform Act was devastating to horse racing.

Tax benefits, at one time, were the number one reason to own a racehorse.
 

blueline

EOG Master
whats the day rate in SoCal 125 or 150?
race maybe 7 starts in a year
race you aim for may not even fill
look how many trainers are now listed as part owner
game is running short on owners
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
whats the day rate in SoCal 125 or 150?
race maybe 7 starts in a year
race you aim for may not even fill
look how many trainers are now listed as part owner
game is running short on owners


TVG's Kurt Hoover mentioned the other day that it takes about $35,000 a year to maintain a horse in California.
 

WeinketoWarrick

EOG Master
I’m 33 and have been an addicted follower and nearly-everyday bettor of the sport for over a decade.

The sport is destined for success at only NYRA and Kentucky. Maybe Oaklawn and Florida too since those generations won’t be dead yet.

Biggest problem with racing tho is the lack of star power. Nobody for the general public to follow and support from a casual perspective that boosts pools.

Chrome, Arrogate, Gun Runner, just to name a few. Look at their careers vs Lebron’s. Imagine if it were possible for Zenyatta to run for 8-10 years. Imagine those three all racing against each other vs this year’s stock plus her.

Breeding has ruined the game more than anything. Short term profits are creating a lack of long term recognition outside the industry.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
Many of us got our gambling start on racing. Many people did not have access to a local bookmaker, and offshore wagering was not yet an option. I was a sports fan before a racing fan. Having said that, my favorite gambling days are the real big racing days (Breeders Cup, Triple Crown) where there are big fields and lots of public money. The opportunities on those days offset the high takeout.

But with sports betting becoming a legal reality in many venues, racing will die if takeout isn't cut. It just won't be able to compete with sports betting.
 

skinny

EOG Addicted
Horse race handicapping involves a huge learning curve.

The millennials prefer to swipe right or swipe left.
This.
No question horseracing is a complicated game, and young people are not going to take the time to learn it when there are so many other gambling options today.
Also if a young person who is price sensitive and understands the math is going to take one look at the takeout and say bye-bye.
 

MrTop

EOG Master
it is why they put In-Game ...... you can bet when you miss the start of the game. Had to do it. Great idea. We could do without the free roll. I would think when 5-G get installed for phones it will be a better network for betting on the run
 
Come on JK and the rest of you, the "issue" is right under your noses and you don't seem to want to talk about it. The problem is quite simply there are no slots at the tracks in California. The smart money these days are buying up 3k or 5k claimers in lousy states with little or no slots money and shipping them to New York, Kentucky or Ohio where there is slots money galore and the competition amongst the horses isn't really that much great. Every track is starved for content where there is slots money, the horsemen got way too big a share of the slot revenue so you get these races that would be crappy maidens running for peanuts in a state without the slots money racing for 30-40k purses in states with slots money. I know a bunch of guys doing this as we speak, they love Fall because all the lousy circuits have owners who can't get rid of horses fast enough so they don't pay for their winter upkeep. Take that horse and put him in the lowest class race in a slots state and if he gets into the money, the payout gives them all their investment back and pays for a couple months of upkeep.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
Come on JK and the rest of you, the "issue" is right under your noses and you don't seem to want to talk about it. The problem is quite simply there are no slots at the tracks in California. The smart money these days are buying up 3k or 5k claimers in lousy states with little or no slots money and shipping them to New York, Kentucky or Ohio where there is slots money galore and the competition amongst the horses isn't really that much great. Every track is starved for content where there is slots money, the horsemen got way too big a share of the slot revenue so you get these races that would be crappy maidens running for peanuts in a state without the slots money racing for 30-40k purses in states with slots money. I know a bunch of guys doing this as we speak, they love Fall because all the lousy circuits have owners who can't get rid of horses fast enough so they don't pay for their winter upkeep. Take that horse and put him in the lowest class race in a slots state and if he gets into the money, the payout gives them all their investment back and pays for a couple months of upkeep.

I guarantee you "smart money" is not buying up $3k to $5k claimers. They eat just the same as the Graded stakes horses. But they have steeper vet bills. Figure at least $100/day plus vet bills. A hard way to make money.
 
I guarantee you "smart money" is not buying up $3k to $5k claimers. They eat just the same as the Graded stakes horses. But they have steeper vet bills. Figure at least $100/day plus vet bills. A hard way to make money.

Whether you belive it or not it's happening. Look at Aqueduct on Wednesday. One race with a 28k purse and rest are 40k and up. Most of them are Maidens! The arbitrage is huge, buy a horse running in cheap races elsewhere, ship them in for 2-3 races a month and see what happens. Not all are going to work out but the math is there and everyone is talking about it. The guy managing Aqueduct told me they know about it and they aren't complaining because what used to be 5-7 horse fields are now 8-10 most races. The only thing they do to limit it is have a couple races a day that are limited to NY bred horses. Those guys used to train tax write offs for wealthy NYC folks, now these guys are making money and having fun winning races even though about 2,000 people are actually in the grandstand watching on weekdays.
 

ejd_5277

EOG Dedicated
Come on JK and the rest of you, the "issue" is right under your noses and you don't seem to want to talk about it. The problem is quite simply there are no slots at the tracks in California. The smart money these days are buying up 3k or 5k claimers in lousy states with little or no slots money and shipping them to New York, Kentucky or Ohio where there is slots money galore and the competition amongst the horses isn't really that much great. Every track is starved for content where there is slots money, the horsemen got way too big a share of the slot revenue so you get these races that would be crappy maidens running for peanuts in a state without the slots money racing for 30-40k purses in states with slots money. I know a bunch of guys doing this as we speak, they love Fall because all the lousy circuits have owners who can't get rid of horses fast enough so they don't pay for their winter upkeep. Take that horse and put him in the lowest class race in a slots state and if he gets into the money, the payout gives them all their investment back and pays for a couple months of upkeep.

No slots at tracks in Kentucky, either.
 

blueline

EOG Master
cheap track shippers to AQU from the last 365 calendar days

BTP 0
CBY 0
CT 00003 00000 00% 00% 00%
DED 0
ELP 00001 00001 100 100 100
EVD 0
FE 0
FP 0
HOU 0
IND 00002 00000 00% 00% 00%
LAD 0
MNR 0
MVR 0
PID 00002 00000 00% 50% 100
PM 0
PRM 0
RET 0
RP 00001 00000 00% 100 100
RUI 0
SUF 0
SUN 0
TAM 00010 00002 20% 30% 50%
TDN 0
TP 00002 00000 00% 00% 00%
TUP 0
WRD 0
ZIA 0
 
cheap track shippers to AQU from the last 365 calendar days

BTP 0
CBY 0
CT 00003 00000 00% 00% 00%
DED 0
ELP 00001 00001 100 100 100
EVD 0
FE 0
FP 0
HOU 0
IND 00002 00000 00% 00% 00%
LAD 0
MNR 0
MVR 0
PID 00002 00000 00% 50% 100
PM 0
PRM 0
RET 0
RP 00001 00000 00% 100 100
RUI 0
SUF 0
SUN 0
TAM 00010 00002 20% 30% 50%
TDN 0
TP 00002 00000 00% 00% 00%
TUP 0
WRD 0
ZIA 0

Ok maybe bad example due to the high costs there. What are the stats for shippers at other NY tracks?
 

blueline

EOG Master
Im assuming Belmont and Saratoga would also have high costs. I dont notice that many out of state shippers to FingerLakes
 

Bigrunner

EOG Master
CA is pussafied by the left. Nobody can stand to see the poor little horsie get hit and have to run.

But American war criminals are Warriors. And Navy admirals are part of the Deep State. JK mentions propaganda in his original post, if he only understood true propaganda.
 

cheapseats

EOG Master
POTUS in Afghanistan with the troops while the loonies embark on more waxing their carrots. Go back to revs joint dufus.
 

Bigrunner

EOG Master
POTUS in Afghanistan with the troops while the loonies embark on more waxing their carrots. Go back to revs joint dufus.

Probably trafficking one anti American conspiracy after another. And then you'll parrot that same anti American propaganda you fucken retard.

Obama wiretapped my phones. Debunked

Obama was born in Africa. Debunked

Ukraine not Russia meddled in the election. Debunked

Putin said he didn't interfere in our election. I don't see why he would. Debunked you fucken anti American Retard!
 
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