Sincerest condolences to sports bettors who wagered on the Washington Redskins +6.5 over the Philadelphia Eagles.
Final score: Eagles 37 Redskins 27.
On the surface, it looks like just another result from the Week 15 scoreboard.
But serious NFL followers know better.
The Redskins played their hearts out and deserved a better fate both straight-up and against the spread.
Rookie quarterback Dwayne Haskins Jr. registered his best game as a pro, but as luck would have it, a mistake by Haskins on the final play of the game ruined the day for Washington fans and gamblers alike.
Philadelphia linebacker Nigel Bradham recovered a fumble near midfield and rumbled 47 yards for an unlikely tack-on touchdown as time expired.
In a cruel twist of gambling fate, the Eagles never had the pointspread covered until the clock showed 0:00.
This is nothing new.
We've seen it before and we'll see it again.
Predictably, recreational bettors in the sports book at MGM Grand were hooting and hollering for several minutes after the game to celebrate their good fortune.
One goofball even raced around the perimeter of the sports book with winning tickets raised above his head.
Another Philly backer, wearing a green Eagles t-shirt, shouted "Fly, Eagles Fly" while flapping his arms like a bird.
Lucky bettors charged to the windows to cash their tickets on Philadelphia -6.5 while rightful winners were denied payment.
Keep backing teams like the Eagles as a 6.5-point road favorite and you'll proceed directly to the poorhouse.
The profits from the lucky win are likely to be squandered in the coming weeks.
After all, the Redskins were the right side, but simply caught the wrong result.
It happens.
Gamblers who understand randomness and its impact on sporting events -- and more precisely, betting outcomes -- view late-game hijinks as an occupational hazard, an unavoidable part of this sometimes frustrating exercise.
Here are a half-dozen notes scribbled across my Don Best rotation schedule:
1) By rule, no extra-point attempt was administered after Philly's 47-yard fumble return for a touchdown with no time left on the clock.
That rule was changed before the start of the 2018 NFL season.
In the past, NFL teams would be required to kick an extra-point or attempt a two-point conversion after scoring with no time on the clock.
2) Should I be betting more side-and-total parlays?
Is it easier to predict the side and total in the same game than to find a pair of sides or a pair of totals in different games?
Furthermore, is it easier to hit 53-55% at odds of 11/10 or 28-30% at odds of 26/10?
Most gamblers wisely think about favorite-and-over or dog-and-under combinations.
That's logical.
But I believe the favorite-and-under combination is a sneaky-good way to play.
3) Make it 14 straight UNDERS now in the Army-Navy football series.
Navy easily defeated Army, 31-7, last Saturday in the 120th meeting between the service academies.
Navy now leads the all-time series 61-52-7.
CGT displayed closing numbers of Navy -11.5 and 42 for the annual showdown.
Army struck first but Navy responded with 31 unanswered points to win going away.
The favorite-and-under parlay combination scored in this rivalry game in Philadelphia when Army's offense, which averaged 311 yards per game this season, rushed for only 123 yards on the day.
4) Navy's run of 31 consecutive points serves as a lesson for sports bettors in search of pointspread winners.
No matter the sport, the ability of a team to score unanswered points/runs/goals is the single most important quality to winning AND covering.
It is said basketball is a game of scoring runs, but so is football, soccer, hockey and baseball (quite literally).
Point production and point prevention are widely discussed, but game control and scoring runs should be studied more closely.
5) There are many parallels between sports handicapping and horse handicapping.
The athletes on the field react a lot like thoroughbreds on the racetrack.
Rest, fitness, level of competition and the conditions of the event are factors for both athletes, human and equine.
My favorite angle in both arenas: Bet AGAINST a bad team off an exhausting win or a low-level horse exiting a big effort, provided said entry is attracting attention in the betting marketplace.
6) Gambling is easy, winning is hard.
Final score: Eagles 37 Redskins 27.
On the surface, it looks like just another result from the Week 15 scoreboard.
But serious NFL followers know better.
The Redskins played their hearts out and deserved a better fate both straight-up and against the spread.
Rookie quarterback Dwayne Haskins Jr. registered his best game as a pro, but as luck would have it, a mistake by Haskins on the final play of the game ruined the day for Washington fans and gamblers alike.
Philadelphia linebacker Nigel Bradham recovered a fumble near midfield and rumbled 47 yards for an unlikely tack-on touchdown as time expired.
In a cruel twist of gambling fate, the Eagles never had the pointspread covered until the clock showed 0:00.
This is nothing new.
We've seen it before and we'll see it again.
Predictably, recreational bettors in the sports book at MGM Grand were hooting and hollering for several minutes after the game to celebrate their good fortune.
One goofball even raced around the perimeter of the sports book with winning tickets raised above his head.
Another Philly backer, wearing a green Eagles t-shirt, shouted "Fly, Eagles Fly" while flapping his arms like a bird.
Lucky bettors charged to the windows to cash their tickets on Philadelphia -6.5 while rightful winners were denied payment.
Keep backing teams like the Eagles as a 6.5-point road favorite and you'll proceed directly to the poorhouse.
The profits from the lucky win are likely to be squandered in the coming weeks.
After all, the Redskins were the right side, but simply caught the wrong result.
It happens.
Gamblers who understand randomness and its impact on sporting events -- and more precisely, betting outcomes -- view late-game hijinks as an occupational hazard, an unavoidable part of this sometimes frustrating exercise.
Here are a half-dozen notes scribbled across my Don Best rotation schedule:
1) By rule, no extra-point attempt was administered after Philly's 47-yard fumble return for a touchdown with no time left on the clock.
That rule was changed before the start of the 2018 NFL season.
In the past, NFL teams would be required to kick an extra-point or attempt a two-point conversion after scoring with no time on the clock.
2) Should I be betting more side-and-total parlays?
Is it easier to predict the side and total in the same game than to find a pair of sides or a pair of totals in different games?
Furthermore, is it easier to hit 53-55% at odds of 11/10 or 28-30% at odds of 26/10?
Most gamblers wisely think about favorite-and-over or dog-and-under combinations.
That's logical.
But I believe the favorite-and-under combination is a sneaky-good way to play.
3) Make it 14 straight UNDERS now in the Army-Navy football series.
Navy easily defeated Army, 31-7, last Saturday in the 120th meeting between the service academies.
Navy now leads the all-time series 61-52-7.
CGT displayed closing numbers of Navy -11.5 and 42 for the annual showdown.
Army struck first but Navy responded with 31 unanswered points to win going away.
The favorite-and-under parlay combination scored in this rivalry game in Philadelphia when Army's offense, which averaged 311 yards per game this season, rushed for only 123 yards on the day.
4) Navy's run of 31 consecutive points serves as a lesson for sports bettors in search of pointspread winners.
No matter the sport, the ability of a team to score unanswered points/runs/goals is the single most important quality to winning AND covering.
It is said basketball is a game of scoring runs, but so is football, soccer, hockey and baseball (quite literally).
Point production and point prevention are widely discussed, but game control and scoring runs should be studied more closely.
5) There are many parallels between sports handicapping and horse handicapping.
The athletes on the field react a lot like thoroughbreds on the racetrack.
Rest, fitness, level of competition and the conditions of the event are factors for both athletes, human and equine.
My favorite angle in both arenas: Bet AGAINST a bad team off an exhausting win or a low-level horse exiting a big effort, provided said entry is attracting attention in the betting marketplace.
6) Gambling is easy, winning is hard.
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