Ten notes and observations from the scorecard of a dedicated sports bettor:
1) It takes two teams to make the total
True in every sport.
Last Saturday's four college football games involving eight FBS teams proved the point.
Under, under, under and under.
UConn punted 11 times from 13 possessions and failed to score in a 45-point loss to Fresno State.
New Mexico State managed only a 27-yard field goal despite five trips to the red zone in a 27-point loss to rival UTEP.
Hawaii put up a measly 10 points when thoroughly outclassed in a 34-point loss to UCLA at the Rose Bowl.
And Nebraska head coach Scott Frost (12-21 overall, 9-18 in the Big Ten) suffered yet another listless loss as his team fell behind Illinois, 30-9, before scoring the game's final 13 points.
2) Winning teams do not surrender a slew of unanswered points
Again, true in every sport.
Nebraska mismanaged its game against Illinois by allowing the 6.5-point home underdog to score 28 consecutive points in a 30-22 defeat.
A Big Red blogger at HuskerOnline assigned a letter grade of "F" to Nebraska's rushing offense, passing offense and special teams play.
Quarterback Adrian Martinez, who promises a lot and delivers very little, is a turnover-machine, having committed 36 turnovers (20 interceptions and 16 fumbles) in three-plus seasons in Lincoln.
While much talk centered around Bret Bielema's debut at Illinois, let's not forget former ESPN college football analyst Trev Alberts also was making his debut as athletic director at his alma mater.
Alberts will be the man who hands Frost his pink slip at season's end.
Here's hoping you did not bet OVER 6 on Nebraska's season win total.
3) Focus intently on the first few weeks of every new season
This strategy sets the table for the rest of the year.
Handicappers need a solid foundation to understand the ebb and flow of a long season.
Avoid placing too much emphasis on preseason predictions from the media, coaches or so-called experts.
Preview magazines project the fates of all teams in a league or conference with imperfect information.
The complete sports handicapper absorbs the preseason information, but trusts production and performance over polls and predictions.
Trust what you see more than what you read.
4) Know the difference between a scripted play and a broken play
Don't give full credit to heavily-favored college football teams for success on broken plays.
Against overmatched teams, broken plays in college football or college basketball often times work.
Very few broken plays are successful in the NFL or NBA.
5) Track the ability of a football team's defensive unit to pursue and tackle
Football is a game of attrition.
Seek to support the most physical defensive teams.
How quickly does an offensive player hit the ground when the defensive team initiates contact?
I contend a team's defense breaks down neatly into two groups: The front seven and the back seven.
So, the linebacking crew is part of both groups and deserves special attention from smart handicappers.
6) Never underestimate the importance of special teams
View a punt or kickoff as the initial play in a team's defensive stand.
Likewise, a punt return or kickoff return serves as the start of an offensive drive.
The battle for field position is especially critical for teams that are challenged, either offensively or defensively.
Mistakes on special teams sometimes lead to points for the opponent.
And a punt block or kickoff return can create game-changing swings in momentum.
7) Exercise caution when betting hard games or hard numbers
What are hard games and hard numbers?
Here's a hard game: Week 10 of the NFL regular season featuring division rivals like the Ravens and Steelers or Rams and 49ers.
Game 6 or Game 7 in an NBA or NHL playoff series is another example of a hard game.
Hard numbers?
Attacking an NFL or NBA betting board an hour before kickoff or tipoff at a time when most of the good bets at odds of 11/10 have disappeared.
8) Bet early and bet late
If you're going to spend only two hours following the betting marketplace, make it the first hour of wagering and the last hour of wagering.
You catch the mistakes of the oddsmakers in the first hour of wagering and the mistakes of the betting public in the final hour of wagering.
And remember, anyone can make a limit wager on the favored side.
Significant wagering action on a low-profile underdog, especially money-line wagers on the 'dog, should be respected a bit more.
.
9) Study the body language of coaches and athletes
This is one of my specialties.
Has been for a long time.
Study the huddles in both football and basketball games and observe the dugout interactions in baseball.
Promote teams that exhibit chemistry and camaraderie and demote squads where dissension is present.
In college football and college basketball, downgrade head coaches who sweat every play and argue every referee's decision.
Not the way to go.
I like my coaches to be smart, creative, prepared and most of all, composed.
Here's a unique technique I've employed recently: Read the lips of coaches and players on the sidelines.
During the first month of the WNBA season, I caught Las Vegas Aces head coach Bill Laimbeer telling overmatched Indiana head coach Marianne Stanley: "We're good, we're really really good."
Now if only I could have read the lips of veteran NFL quarterbacks Andy Dalton and Nick Foles this past Saturday night as they were discussing rookie quarterback Justin Fields of the Chicago Bears.
10) Win handily, lose begrudgingly
I have a running debate with fellow EOG contributor WINKYDUCK, who claims it's better to lose a game in blowout fashion from start to finish than to lose a wager by getting beat at the last moment.
No no no.
Horseplayers, who also bet sports, know better.
At the racetrack, you want to lose as many photo finishes as possible, as frustrating as that sounds.
Why?
It's a sign your selections are running well enough to win.
In contrast, losing handicappers watch their horses languish in the back of the pack, a calamitous warning for subsequent wagers.
Dead sides in the sports book, like dead horses at the racetrack, must be avoided at all costs.
This gambling axiom -- Win handily, lose begrudgingly -- also works well for athletes on the playing field.
Check out the team with the best record in the American League this season.
The Tampa Bay Rays are an impressive 82-48.
Amazingly, eleven of the team's 48 losses have come in extra innings.
When the Rays lose, they lose begrudgingly.
Question: Name the only MLB team with a worse record in extra innings than the Tampa Bay Rays?
Answer: The mighty Los Angeles Dodgers.
Winky's favorite team is 4-11 in extra frames this season.
1) It takes two teams to make the total
True in every sport.
Last Saturday's four college football games involving eight FBS teams proved the point.
Under, under, under and under.
UConn punted 11 times from 13 possessions and failed to score in a 45-point loss to Fresno State.
New Mexico State managed only a 27-yard field goal despite five trips to the red zone in a 27-point loss to rival UTEP.
Hawaii put up a measly 10 points when thoroughly outclassed in a 34-point loss to UCLA at the Rose Bowl.
And Nebraska head coach Scott Frost (12-21 overall, 9-18 in the Big Ten) suffered yet another listless loss as his team fell behind Illinois, 30-9, before scoring the game's final 13 points.
2) Winning teams do not surrender a slew of unanswered points
Again, true in every sport.
Nebraska mismanaged its game against Illinois by allowing the 6.5-point home underdog to score 28 consecutive points in a 30-22 defeat.
A Big Red blogger at HuskerOnline assigned a letter grade of "F" to Nebraska's rushing offense, passing offense and special teams play.
Quarterback Adrian Martinez, who promises a lot and delivers very little, is a turnover-machine, having committed 36 turnovers (20 interceptions and 16 fumbles) in three-plus seasons in Lincoln.
While much talk centered around Bret Bielema's debut at Illinois, let's not forget former ESPN college football analyst Trev Alberts also was making his debut as athletic director at his alma mater.
Alberts will be the man who hands Frost his pink slip at season's end.
Here's hoping you did not bet OVER 6 on Nebraska's season win total.
3) Focus intently on the first few weeks of every new season
This strategy sets the table for the rest of the year.
Handicappers need a solid foundation to understand the ebb and flow of a long season.
Avoid placing too much emphasis on preseason predictions from the media, coaches or so-called experts.
Preview magazines project the fates of all teams in a league or conference with imperfect information.
The complete sports handicapper absorbs the preseason information, but trusts production and performance over polls and predictions.
Trust what you see more than what you read.
4) Know the difference between a scripted play and a broken play
Don't give full credit to heavily-favored college football teams for success on broken plays.
Against overmatched teams, broken plays in college football or college basketball often times work.
Very few broken plays are successful in the NFL or NBA.
5) Track the ability of a football team's defensive unit to pursue and tackle
Football is a game of attrition.
Seek to support the most physical defensive teams.
How quickly does an offensive player hit the ground when the defensive team initiates contact?
I contend a team's defense breaks down neatly into two groups: The front seven and the back seven.
So, the linebacking crew is part of both groups and deserves special attention from smart handicappers.
6) Never underestimate the importance of special teams
View a punt or kickoff as the initial play in a team's defensive stand.
Likewise, a punt return or kickoff return serves as the start of an offensive drive.
The battle for field position is especially critical for teams that are challenged, either offensively or defensively.
Mistakes on special teams sometimes lead to points for the opponent.
And a punt block or kickoff return can create game-changing swings in momentum.
7) Exercise caution when betting hard games or hard numbers
What are hard games and hard numbers?
Here's a hard game: Week 10 of the NFL regular season featuring division rivals like the Ravens and Steelers or Rams and 49ers.
Game 6 or Game 7 in an NBA or NHL playoff series is another example of a hard game.
Hard numbers?
Attacking an NFL or NBA betting board an hour before kickoff or tipoff at a time when most of the good bets at odds of 11/10 have disappeared.
8) Bet early and bet late
If you're going to spend only two hours following the betting marketplace, make it the first hour of wagering and the last hour of wagering.
You catch the mistakes of the oddsmakers in the first hour of wagering and the mistakes of the betting public in the final hour of wagering.
And remember, anyone can make a limit wager on the favored side.
Significant wagering action on a low-profile underdog, especially money-line wagers on the 'dog, should be respected a bit more.
.
9) Study the body language of coaches and athletes
This is one of my specialties.
Has been for a long time.
Study the huddles in both football and basketball games and observe the dugout interactions in baseball.
Promote teams that exhibit chemistry and camaraderie and demote squads where dissension is present.
In college football and college basketball, downgrade head coaches who sweat every play and argue every referee's decision.
Not the way to go.
I like my coaches to be smart, creative, prepared and most of all, composed.
Here's a unique technique I've employed recently: Read the lips of coaches and players on the sidelines.
During the first month of the WNBA season, I caught Las Vegas Aces head coach Bill Laimbeer telling overmatched Indiana head coach Marianne Stanley: "We're good, we're really really good."
Now if only I could have read the lips of veteran NFL quarterbacks Andy Dalton and Nick Foles this past Saturday night as they were discussing rookie quarterback Justin Fields of the Chicago Bears.
10) Win handily, lose begrudgingly
I have a running debate with fellow EOG contributor WINKYDUCK, who claims it's better to lose a game in blowout fashion from start to finish than to lose a wager by getting beat at the last moment.
No no no.
Horseplayers, who also bet sports, know better.
At the racetrack, you want to lose as many photo finishes as possible, as frustrating as that sounds.
Why?
It's a sign your selections are running well enough to win.
In contrast, losing handicappers watch their horses languish in the back of the pack, a calamitous warning for subsequent wagers.
Dead sides in the sports book, like dead horses at the racetrack, must be avoided at all costs.
This gambling axiom -- Win handily, lose begrudgingly -- also works well for athletes on the playing field.
Check out the team with the best record in the American League this season.
The Tampa Bay Rays are an impressive 82-48.
Amazingly, eleven of the team's 48 losses have come in extra innings.
When the Rays lose, they lose begrudgingly.
Question: Name the only MLB team with a worse record in extra innings than the Tampa Bay Rays?
Answer: The mighty Los Angeles Dodgers.
Winky's favorite team is 4-11 in extra frames this season.
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