My Strongest NFL Play Of The Year Goes Tonight!!!
- Thread starter THE SHRINK
- Start date
I am hearing most places need Oak, but not a bloodbath.
Keith Richard
Banned
Until the world champions start losing a game or 2 I keep betting them regardless of the spread. All this team does to prove themselves is win every week. :+signs9-1
Losebet,
You are a funny guy and I love your avatar...:+excited-
You are a funny guy and I love your avatar...:+excited-
OMNIVOROUS FROG
EOG Master
THE SHRINK said:
Thought for a minute you were going to force one in there The SHRINK.
Just another primetime chalk and over. Better opportunity will arise, a underdog with some value. No, not the Raiders. The best bet was no bet. Tough when you have zebras and popular team on primetime vs. Bad news Raiders. 17 penalties for 149 yards?
Best Wishes...OF:+waving-5
I always thought the best bets are the ones that win. I have concluded that I will forever be a Square!
"Value" is always obvious in hindsight.
Perception of "value" before kickoff is not the same as "value" at the final gun!
No such thing as value. Only winning bets and the usual.
:cocktail
Public wins game, half and over. Public was right on the Patriots and Colts all last year. Sometimes public is right like tonight and wrong like Miami vs. FSU.
Raiders played their 5th preseason game tonight and have a long way to go, Collins looks a little lost and the team showed little fire. Patriots were untested in the second half and coasted home. New England will need a bit more against a more competitive team and the Raiders need coaching and discipline as the penalties were just ridiculous.
Raiders played their 5th preseason game tonight and have a long way to go, Collins looks a little lost and the team showed little fire. Patriots were untested in the second half and coasted home. New England will need a bit more against a more competitive team and the Raiders need coaching and discipline as the penalties were just ridiculous.
Seems like a few are praising you for passing on your bet. Well, that's all fine and good, but it came off as hot air to me.
I took a side and lost. And I'm sure I'll lose again in the future. But the important point is that we all come out ahead in the long run.
I agree, though, that sometimes discretion is the better part of valor.
Fezzik at -120 does look like a steal to me.
I took a side and lost. And I'm sure I'll lose again in the future. But the important point is that we all come out ahead in the long run.
I agree, though, that sometimes discretion is the better part of valor.
Fezzik at -120 does look like a steal to me.
Lose/Winbet,
If I was as sharp as you it wouldn't have taken me this long to figure out who you are. Good Luck.
If I was as sharp as you it wouldn't have taken me this long to figure out who you are. Good Luck.
OMNIVOROUS FROG
EOG Master
Tough to say sharp/square in this particular game. Both teams have big followings, but the Patriot followers have fatter wallets. Some things do not change. The Pats win and cover, probably won over 2 straight years at home. One of the best chalk covering teams I have ever seen. The Raiders still have no defense, a questionable offense, and horrible lack of disclipline. Even though The SHRINK wasted all of our time with this Strongest no play, it was the correct result to just watch this one. People feel compelled to bet primetime games. However, the numbers are the tightest on these games.
Have to question why the Raiders went for two? No, not really, they needed two 8 point scores when down 30-14. However by missing it set up a nasty middle, as many books did make it to 50 1/2. That is how tight the numbers were on this game. All 4 teasers hit. And a total middle. I thought I may learn something from this game. The only thing I learned was the Raiders are still lame. Pats offense still nasty. Would prefer to see them vs. someone besides an overated cellar dweller.
Best Wishes...OF :+waving-5
Can you pass games vs Fezzik?
Have to question why the Raiders went for two? No, not really, they needed two 8 point scores when down 30-14. However by missing it set up a nasty middle, as many books did make it to 50 1/2. That is how tight the numbers were on this game. All 4 teasers hit. And a total middle. I thought I may learn something from this game. The only thing I learned was the Raiders are still lame. Pats offense still nasty. Would prefer to see them vs. someone besides an overated cellar dweller.
Best Wishes...OF :+waving-5
Can you pass games vs Fezzik?
OF,
I PASSED because there were no 7 flats out there and I had a slight lean towards New England at that number, which was around for glimpses but I did NOT want to recommend BUYING down to 7.
As you recall, that got me into trouble years ago, lol...
As for FEZZIK and I, you may wish to look at the odds that PINNACLE is currently using because had I known I'd be getting 6-5 virtually, I'd have bet PINNY, rather than FEZZIK...
I only have to pick 5 games each week in the HILTON contest and the same with FEZZIK (we are both using our Hilton plays against each other)...
Therefore, YES, I will be PASSING on quite a few games since 5 is usually enough for me to bet on the NFL each week...
By the way, when are you going to start posting plays on a regular basis to match your posts??? :cocktail
THE SHRINK
I PASSED because there were no 7 flats out there and I had a slight lean towards New England at that number, which was around for glimpses but I did NOT want to recommend BUYING down to 7.
As you recall, that got me into trouble years ago, lol...
As for FEZZIK and I, you may wish to look at the odds that PINNACLE is currently using because had I known I'd be getting 6-5 virtually, I'd have bet PINNY, rather than FEZZIK...
I only have to pick 5 games each week in the HILTON contest and the same with FEZZIK (we are both using our Hilton plays against each other)...
Therefore, YES, I will be PASSING on quite a few games since 5 is usually enough for me to bet on the NFL each week...
By the way, when are you going to start posting plays on a regular basis to match your posts??? :cocktail
THE SHRINK
OMNIVOROUS FROG
EOG Master
Polaris said:
There is no such thing as value. I might as well quit the business as that is all I look for.
Best Wishes...oF:+waving-5
I don't always agree with OF, but to make suck a statement that there is no such thing as VALUE is FOOLHARDY...
Polaris,
I am surprised by that...:smoke
Polaris,
I am surprised by that...:smoke
IDENTITY said:
WE????? :wow1
I don't recall betting the seond half with anyone...
THE SHRINK
OMNIVOROUS FROG
EOG Master
The SHRINK, I had just a bad of year at football last year as I can remember. I am playing the Hollywood, where I put 10 games I have isolated early. Colleges have been good so far. I have a thread in NCAA football, we have good discussions there. My strongest sport is hoops, without a doubt. I just hope to grind a small profit until baskets start.
Thanks for the rundown on you vs. Fezzik challenge. Sounds like a hoot, and will get lots of interest, just not from me, as I am not in it. Hanging with WNBA, MLB and NCAA football for now. Regret not buying 50 1/2 un but you are either working a sport or not. Bases have a few weeks left for regular, then real season begins. I want a game or two of NFL, before I even venture in that pond. I hate to ask this, but if you were waiting for a certain number, why didn't you just say that, instead of stringing everyone along?
Good luck vs. Fezzik, he was off last year at NFL.
Best Wishes...OF:+waving-5
Thanks for the rundown on you vs. Fezzik challenge. Sounds like a hoot, and will get lots of interest, just not from me, as I am not in it. Hanging with WNBA, MLB and NCAA football for now. Regret not buying 50 1/2 un but you are either working a sport or not. Bases have a few weeks left for regular, then real season begins. I want a game or two of NFL, before I even venture in that pond. I hate to ask this, but if you were waiting for a certain number, why didn't you just say that, instead of stringing everyone along?
Good luck vs. Fezzik, he was off last year at NFL.
Best Wishes...OF:+waving-5
OMNIVOROUS FROG
EOG Master
IDENTITY said:
That we is Identity's mouse he/she keeps in his/her pocket. She named it Uncle Herpes.
Best Wishes...OF:+waving-5
Some guys here are saying that Shrink made the right call and passed. Shrink didn't make a wrong call by passing but he didn't make the right call either. It's not a sin to play the favorite.
Playing the dog blindly is not profitable and the winning percentage seems to come down every year. The forum myth of playing a favorite or over makes you a square isn't true even though I would recommend playing the dog and under if you must make a play blindly.
Playing the dog blindly is not profitable and the winning percentage seems to come down every year. The forum myth of playing a favorite or over makes you a square isn't true even though I would recommend playing the dog and under if you must make a play blindly.
OMNIVOROUS FROG
EOG Master
Raiders, get a new team.
Best Wishes...oF:+waving-5
Best Wishes...oF:+waving-5
Frog- You're right about that. I had high hopes this year but 8-8 may be pushing it.
OMNIVOROUS FROG
EOG Master
No, this one made it over with the majority of the action, up from 47 1/2 or so to 50 1/2. Most stopped there, some made 50 1/2 at one point during game day. Then reverse buy dropped it back to 48. I think books lost 95% of over action, pushed some un action, lost a tiny amount of un 50 1/2. Won a small share of buyback. Good earn on the side with great number 7 1/2 from jump. That barely wavered for weeks. I would say almost all of the over bettors won. 50 did not last that long.
Best Wishes...OF:+waving-5
Best Wishes...OF:+waving-5
Hache Man said:
THE SHRINK said:
THE SHRINK,
If you're surprised at what I say above, you will be more surprised at what I will say next, perhaps even shocked!
Finding "value" in the NFL line is a dead end.
I have come to reject the ideas of betting underlays and avoiding overlays (ideas learned from the track) as an effective means of NFL handicapping. Value is problematic for NFL wagering. The reasons are as follows, briefly:-
1. The NFL line is largely effecient. To find value from a NFL line is akind to trying to squeeze water out of a stone. If value is actually found, it may be so miniscule that the advantage over the long run not worthwhile.
2. The X factor. Suppose a degenerate handicaps a game and figures that because of Factors A B C, the game has value. The game is played and Factors X Y Z were decisive in the out come of the game. Naturally, the value from A B C were worthless. Both coaches of opposing teams enter the game with a game plan, but how many times does that game plan change due to the circumstances during the game? Every game.
3. Statistical fact. I think but don't remember exactly, that 80% of the time when a team wins it covers. Logically, you want to pick winners. That's where the emphasize should be. Being focused on value distracts from that goal I feel, looking for value in a NFL line misses the point.
4. Looking for "value" often is counter-productive. Case in point: How many people last night took Oakland because of the hooke at 7???? Much more than anyone is willing to admit!!! Looking for value in NFL games is not liberating, it is restrictive.
Find winners, forget value, the best plan of attack for NFL betting. This should also mean one should be betting many games, which again, goes against the accepted wisdom of spot plays.
To build a better mouse trap, one must break away from the old, and use a new different paradigm!
