NBA for opening week
- Thread starter ATX
- Start date
cheapseats
EOG Master
Re: NBA for opening week
Big confidence in this X, I tend to think you are right on with this view of the game. Kobe will also be out to show last game and the subsequent f1 was a bunch of bullshit....
Big confidence in this X, I tend to think you are right on with this view of the game. Kobe will also be out to show last game and the subsequent f1 was a bunch of bullshit....
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
I cannot go the other way. I'm not sure I've seen a playoffs in which so many line moves were wrong. I have it closer to the opener -2'. If they lose game 3 then I'll bang game 4. If that loses well then that will suck, but that is my plan and 2.2% is what I think this game is...about twice as good as my last 3 bets. thanks for the opinion as I have watched nary a game. WTF is going on with Odom, any chance he represents?
I cannot go the other way. I'm not sure I've seen a playoffs in which so many line moves were wrong. I have it closer to the opener -2'. If they lose game 3 then I'll bang game 4. If that loses well then that will suck, but that is my plan and 2.2% is what I think this game is...about twice as good as my last 3 bets. thanks for the opinion as I have watched nary a game. WTF is going on with Odom, any chance he represents?
cheapseats
EOG Master
Re: NBA for opening week
Lamar is here today, gone tomorrow. He'll show up when you least expect. He is a brawler, which sets up well for his character in game 3. I really think he needs a little ass-kicking from the opponent, and I think he got a little of that with the last game so I would expect him to show Friday.
Lamar is here today, gone tomorrow. He'll show up when you least expect. He is a brawler, which sets up well for his character in game 3. I really think he needs a little ass-kicking from the opponent, and I think he got a little of that with the last game so I would expect him to show Friday.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
that sure would be nice...
I have Denver 4-2 for the series, but Mavs laying 4 points? seriously? hard to make much better than pk.
that sure would be nice...
I have Denver 4-2 for the series, but Mavs laying 4 points? seriously? hard to make much better than pk.
cheapseats
EOG Master
munson15
I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week
I'm not as sure of LA as you guys, I didn't like what I saw in the first two games. Even when the Lakers tried to put them away early, the Rockets had plenty of answers coming all the way back from 15 down to go up 4 at one point. I see chinks in LA's armor, and Houston's toughness will be on full display in their place. Artest looks terrific (minus the mental breakdown late in game 2) and Yao is more than Bynum or Gasol can handle. Houston's guards are quicker and I think better than the secondary Lakers like Farmar, Vujacic and the others. Should be very physical and that should favor the Rockets at home being pumped up by a crazy house. Really not sure of this one, I actually lean Houston in game 3, but I definitely have learned to respect ATX' calls. GL.:cheers
That line got my attention as well. Gotta figure it's 'make a stand' or quit for Dallas. 0-2 teams going home will give whatever's left in the tank in this situation. Linemaking is certainly different in the playoffs, and whatever you have as a true line is likely to be well off the mark depending on the status of the series.
I'm not as sure of LA as you guys, I didn't like what I saw in the first two games. Even when the Lakers tried to put them away early, the Rockets had plenty of answers coming all the way back from 15 down to go up 4 at one point. I see chinks in LA's armor, and Houston's toughness will be on full display in their place. Artest looks terrific (minus the mental breakdown late in game 2) and Yao is more than Bynum or Gasol can handle. Houston's guards are quicker and I think better than the secondary Lakers like Farmar, Vujacic and the others. Should be very physical and that should favor the Rockets at home being pumped up by a crazy house. Really not sure of this one, I actually lean Houston in game 3, but I definitely have learned to respect ATX' calls. GL.:cheers
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
somethings are so damn hard to resist...I had Denver pk and I may come back the other way with Rox. nothing good enough with Cle/Atl 2h. I think Cavs cover 2h, but I had to take them full game b/c I wasn't sure if it would be close at the half. I like the 2h under but I it's too correlated to Cavs covering, IMO. If Atlanta covers/wins it tends to go over...
somethings are so damn hard to resist...I had Denver pk and I may come back the other way with Rox. nothing good enough with Cle/Atl 2h. I think Cavs cover 2h, but I had to take them full game b/c I wasn't sure if it would be close at the half. I like the 2h under but I it's too correlated to Cavs covering, IMO. If Atlanta covers/wins it tends to go over...
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
this is the pure piece of shit once again posting to my diary. I guess that is better than a mulatto piece of shit or an inbred turd.
I'm taking Boston for 2.2% in game 4. it might move to 5.5 some places, but I think there is a stronger possibility of it moving to 4.5 or below. I also am taking the moneyline of +195 or better. since I have shit-for-brains I'm not sure for how much. but I did get a little at +5 -105 already. let me see if I can move it back for everyone...:doh1
this is the pure piece of shit once again posting to my diary. I guess that is better than a mulatto piece of shit or an inbred turd.
I'm taking Boston for 2.2% in game 4. it might move to 5.5 some places, but I think there is a stronger possibility of it moving to 4.5 or below. I also am taking the moneyline of +195 or better. since I have shit-for-brains I'm not sure for how much. but I did get a little at +5 -105 already. let me see if I can move it back for everyone...:doh1
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
you should probably read everything. When did I bet this game? When I posted it, -4 was still available at 3 shops that have a good a good payment history with me. I know, a waste of time trying to reason with someone whose associates include Kodiak, Railbird, and Goochy-Goon.
G4 Lakers/Houston over 194 for 1.5%
you should probably read everything. When did I bet this game? When I posted it, -4 was still available at 3 shops that have a good a good payment history with me. I know, a waste of time trying to reason with someone whose associates include Kodiak, Railbird, and Goochy-Goon.
G4 Lakers/Houston over 194 for 1.5%
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
yep, I generally don't post something that isn't available at one of the big 5. I also don't always post vig, but I don't usually lay -110, in this 2h I liked the + b/c I had it solidly below 96.
I'm not sure what I'm going to do with Atl/Cle, I find it hard to bet Atlanta. I do tend to think the 2h goes under, but of course I need to see the 1st half first. No way I'm taking Dallas, but without 4 points it changes things, 2' might be w/a. I do like the under in this game, but I might wait until the half. very bad call with the Lakers today, torn between my position and what I usually do.
yep, I generally don't post something that isn't available at one of the big 5. I also don't always post vig, but I don't usually lay -110, in this 2h I liked the + b/c I had it solidly below 96.
I'm not sure what I'm going to do with Atl/Cle, I find it hard to bet Atlanta. I do tend to think the 2h goes under, but of course I need to see the 1st half first. No way I'm taking Dallas, but without 4 points it changes things, 2' might be w/a. I do like the under in this game, but I might wait until the half. very bad call with the Lakers today, torn between my position and what I usually do.
Re: NBA for opening week
I'm looking at tomorrows lines and really don't see shit. I'd rather pass than force something because I know boston will be put out at a short number at home plus the total will come down a point or two and the celts tt for next game is straight cash homey good luck in whatever you play
I'm looking at tomorrows lines and really don't see shit. I'd rather pass than force something because I know boston will be put out at a short number at home plus the total will come down a point or two and the celts tt for next game is straight cash homey good luck in whatever you play
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
precisely. I've got some numbers that work, but nothing as easy as the last 13. I am so pissed at myself about the Lakers game, EPIC misstep by me. Part of the reason I don't take road favorites, I take one, I start down that path...every other year I would have been on Houston and the ML for big money, so MANY things lined up for them. I think Dallas/Denver goes under with out all the ft's, I see the game as Denver running away with it and going under in the 2h, Mavs don't exactly have a lot of heart...Cleveland can pretty much name the score, but not sure how much of a sleepwalk for them, I tend to think Lebron really wants to close it out, he's hungry, but 10 points is a lot.
precisely. I've got some numbers that work, but nothing as easy as the last 13. I am so pissed at myself about the Lakers game, EPIC misstep by me. Part of the reason I don't take road favorites, I take one, I start down that path...every other year I would have been on Houston and the ML for big money, so MANY things lined up for them. I think Dallas/Denver goes under with out all the ft's, I see the game as Denver running away with it and going under in the 2h, Mavs don't exactly have a lot of heart...Cleveland can pretty much name the score, but not sure how much of a sleepwalk for them, I tend to think Lebron really wants to close it out, he's hungry, but 10 points is a lot.
cheapseats
EOG Master
Re: NBA for opening week
x, just a thought. timing is everything in this game, lakers got what they wanted with a split in game 3, the yao thing just happened to hit at game 4....i really think the 5th game goes lakes...
x, just a thought. timing is everything in this game, lakers got what they wanted with a split in game 3, the yao thing just happened to hit at game 4....i really think the 5th game goes lakes...
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
12 points is a lot. I can't really figure out any kind of consistency with the Lakers. Houston or pass, will prob close less than the opener. I don't see a whole lot of difference from game 1 to game 5 with the Lakers. They've lost home court, I'm going to look at the series price for LA. Which Lakers team shows up? When you compare it to Cleveland/Atlanta, Cavs are laying "only" 10? I just don't see this line being more than 8. The thing with the playoffs tho is that it's more about guessing what happens in each game by game...
12 points is a lot. I can't really figure out any kind of consistency with the Lakers. Houston or pass, will prob close less than the opener. I don't see a whole lot of difference from game 1 to game 5 with the Lakers. They've lost home court, I'm going to look at the series price for LA. Which Lakers team shows up? When you compare it to Cleveland/Atlanta, Cavs are laying "only" 10? I just don't see this line being more than 8. The thing with the playoffs tho is that it's more about guessing what happens in each game by game...
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
I didn't mean that LA has lost home court advantage. They have lost the air of superiority. I think it basically breaks down into whether the Rockets can score enough in game 5. LA hasn't ever really played defense this year, they peaked early in the year with those games @Bos,Cle. The more I look at this game the more I don't like the under.
I didn't mean that LA has lost home court advantage. They have lost the air of superiority. I think it basically breaks down into whether the Rockets can score enough in game 5. LA hasn't ever really played defense this year, they peaked early in the year with those games @Bos,Cle. The more I look at this game the more I don't like the under.
munson15
I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week
I thought I saw 10 on the Lakers at SIA yesterday, maybe it was 9, but I fully expected you to hedge out of that 3.5 and play for a juicy middle, at least partially. Except for Chlosme (spelling) I couldn't find anyone making a case for Houston. But, using my own methodology of fading line moves, I should have had Houston :doh1, and using your methodology of playing teams with injured stars the first game out, :doh1 it was Houston again. The signs were everywhere, but I ignored them. I passed, but ignored a great situation for the Rockets. Hinidsight being 20/20, I guess that figures.:doh1 I did very well on the Boston game, liked that 2H under, too. I like that idea of going against the total for the game at halftime, the line was more than 1/2 what had been scored and more than 1/2 what the full game total was. Hope that all made sense.
ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
I think I'm going to take Denver for 1.1% at +2.5 I'm projecting. I don't like it much, but I don't see the Mavs motivation here. Dirk with hag problems, Dallas yet to beat Denver this year, basically zero chance to advance, the MAVS have HEART!! not!! probably something pops up with ATL/CLE at the half with a spread that high and total that low.
I think I'm going to take Denver for 1.1% at +2.5 I'm projecting. I don't like it much, but I don't see the Mavs motivation here. Dirk with hag problems, Dallas yet to beat Denver this year, basically zero chance to advance, the MAVS have HEART!! not!! probably something pops up with ATL/CLE at the half with a spread that high and total that low.
