NBA for opening week

Re: NBA for opening week

B Lang:

10 dime:Orlando

THE SPORTS ADVISORS

NBA PLAYOFFS

EASTERN CONFERENCE

(1) Cleveland (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS) at (3) Orlando (9-6 SU, 7-8 ATS)

The Cavaliers, who had to battle to earn a home split in the first two games of the Eastern Conference finals, make the trip to Amway Arena for Game 3 against the Magic, who are coming off a stunning Game 2 loss.

Cleveland beat Orlando 96-95 Friday night, winning on LeBron James’ highlight reel catch-and-shoot 3-pointer off an inbounds pass with just one second left on the clock, but the Cavaliers failed to cover as a heavy nine-point home chalk. James finished with 35 points and five assists, though he also committed six turnovers as Cleveland blew all of a 23-point first-half lead before eking out the victory. Mo Williams scored 19 and Zydrunas Ilgauskas had a double-double of 12 points and 15 rebounds.

The Cavs were yielding just 78.1 ppg in the first two rounds of the playoffs, but have now given up 107 and 95 points, respectively, to the Magic.

Rashard Lewis paced Orlando with 23 points, hitting 4 of 7 from 3-point range, and Hedo Turkoglu had 21 points, including a 3-pointer that tied the game at 93 and a 12-foot jumper in the lane that gave the Magic a 95-93 lead with one second remaining. Dwight Howard had just 10 points but grabbed 18 rebounds.

The Magic are on a 12-1 ATS tear in this rivalry, including cashing in five of the last six meetings in Orlando. This year, Orlando is 3-2 SU and 5-0 ATS against the Cavaliers. The underdog is now 10-3 ATS in the last 11 clashes, and the road team is on an 8-3 ATS roll.

Cleveland is 31-14 SU (25-20 ATS) on the road this year, including 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) in the playoffs. Orlando is 36-11 SU (26-21 ATS) at home, including 4-2 SU (3-3 ATS) in the postseason.

The Cavaliers are 31-5 SU in their last 36 starts and remain on virtually nothing but positive ATS runs, including 11-3 overall, 6-2 in the Eastern Conference finals, 40-20 after a non-cover, 5-1 on the road, and 10-2 after a SU win. However, Mike Brown’s troops are just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 starts against Southeast Division squads.

The Magic are on ATS upticks of 8-3 overall (4-0 in their last four), 7-1 against the Central Division, 5-2 after a spread-cover and a lengthy 50-21-1 following a SU loss, but they are just 5-15 ATS as a home chalk of less than five points.

The first two games of this series cleared the posted price, and the over for Cleveland is on rolls of 5-0 in the conference finals and 5-1 with the Cavs an underdog. But the Cavs remain on “under” streaks of 4-0 on the road, 6-2 after a SU win and 16-7 as a playoff pup. Likewise, the under for Orlando is on runs 22-10 overall, 4-1 at home, 6-1 with the Magic a playoff chalk and 26-10 overall with the Magic laying points at home.

Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in 11 of the last 17 meetings in Orlando (11-5-1).

ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO

Johnny Guild

Conference Finals
Sunday, May 24, 2009 8:30 PM EST.
Cleveland Cavaliers (75-17) at Orlando Magic (68-29)
I believe we will see another close gung ho clash tonight at Amway Arena. Orlando will get through their painful buzzer defeat in game 2 and even the score against the Cavaliers on their home court. The Magic have won nine of the last 13 clashes against Cleveland at home and are 5-1 ATS in its last 6 home games versus the Cavaliers. Take Orlando! Lay the 1.5point with the home favorite in this rivalry.

Matt Farrgo

9* NBA STAR ATTRACTION *58.9% ATS RUN*

Cleveland at Orlando
Play: Orlando -1.5

Momentum could not be any more on the side of the Cavaliers right now. Had that been in Game One, Cleveland would have had a big edge for Game Two since it would have remained home. In this case, the Cavaliers have to travel to Orlando and I think that any momentum gained by the LeBron clutch shot, is lost due to the change in venue. Most importantly, we have seen that Orlando matches up extremely well with the Cavaliers, arguably the toughest matchup they have of any team in the NBA. Also, the fact that the series is tied and Orlando has stolen the home court edge, you can say that it and not the Cavaliers have the momentum edge. Orlando was able to come back in both games from huge deficits and that alone says a lot about the character of this team. The slow starts in both games may be considered an issue as in the two first quarters of the series, Cleveland has held Orlando to 34 percent shooting and 17.5 points per quarter. ESPN analyst Jon Barry summed it up perfectly. “Obviously, a lot of people think Orlando is going to be devastated after LeBron hit that game-winning shot, but the team is going to be fine,” he said. “This is a great series and it's not going to be decided by that shot. I think people put way too much emphasis on how a team does the game before and worry too much about one shot impacting the psyche of a team. NBA teams seem to put a game behind them a lot easier in the playoffs than regular season.” I cannot agree more with that statement since short-term memory is the key and will no doubt be the key for tonight. If there was good that came from the heartbreaking loss, it might be that the Magic now seem to have no fear of the Cavaliers and forward Hedo Turkoglu said that watching the Cavaliers jubilant celebration was fuel for them going into the rest of the series. Cleveland may still be considered the best team in the Eastern Conference or the NBA but it has not fared well against the top teams. The Cavaliers are just 2-10 ATS this season against teams with a winning percentage greater than .700. Orlando meanwhile is 10-2 in its last 12 games dating back to last season against teams outscoring opponents by nine or more ppg. Say what you want about Stan Van Gundy but Orlando is 28-6 ATS off a road loss in games he has coached in Orlando. Also, the Magic are 12-2 ATS after playing three consecutive road games over the last two seasons. 9* Orlando Magic

Jamie Tursini

Cleveland at Orlando
Pick: Orlando -1.5

My "Power Ratings" have Orlando as a 4.5 point favorite getting great value. Orlando knows that they are every bit as good as Cleveland if not better. In the two regular season meetings at home the Magic were 3.5 and 5 point favorites winning both 116-87, and 99-88 respectively. Holding the Cavs to a combined 39.2% shooting percentage, while shooting a combined 49.3% themselves. Through the first two games Orlando has shot 51.5% from the field to Cleveland's 47.2%. It's clear that Orlando poses offensive matchup problems for Cleveland. Particularly H.Turkoglu and R.Lewis. Who are a combined 28-56 50% from the field with 81 points. As the series has shifted to Orlando, these will stand out more and more.
info courtesy of Grand Slam.
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

Cavs are still close to -300 for the series. If you think that Cleveland is less than a 9 point favorite at home, which we can be fairly certain of, there's really no reason for Cleveland to be a dog. A high percentage of the time this game 3 is going to be a 1 or 2 point game. My line is Cleveland -2, I think +2 comes in over 60%. I also think this game goes under. I am waiting for the 2nd half for that. That 7 games with Boston, that fatigue should start making it's presence known. I'm not saying Orlando doesn't have a chance, I just think it's a +125 chance not a -125 chance. Before all big bets I like to work into my 12 pack a little, helps with the how much side of things.
I'd love to see that 12 pack, must be chock full of little nuggets of info.:thumbsup
 
Re: NBA for opening week

can the Cavs pull off the...:+textinb3 UPSET here?

it's amazing how people look at things when they put the minus sign in the wrong place.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

bet with your head not over it...

Orlando Sentinel:

LeBron James rips out Orlando's heart as Cleveland Cavs beat Orlando Magic at buzzer
James hits 3-pointer at buzzer to lift Cavaliers to 1-point victory
By Brian Schmitz | Sentinel Staff Writer
May 23, 2009

CLEVELAND - Yes, the Orlando Magic were all witnesses, especially Coach Stan Van Gundy.

They need to be in a witness-protection program — as far away as possible from LeBron James.

Don't let him near you.

James hit a 3-point buzzer-beating jumper to beat the Magic 96-95 on Friday night to foil an epic comeback by the visitors and square the Eastern Conference finals at 1-1.

James' heroics completely turned the tables on the Magic and the tenor of what is shaping into a classic series.

His incredible 25-footer added to his legend, sending the Quicken Loans Arena crowd into a frenzy and allowing the favored Cavs to escape a 2-0 hole.

The Magic, who won Game 1 107-106 on Rashard Lewis' 3-point shot with 14.7 seconds left, at least got the split they desired. The series returns to Orlando for two games, with Game 3 on Sunday.

James finished with 35 points after scoring 49 in the opener.

Lewis led Orlando with 23 points and Turkoglu finished with 21. Dwight Howard, battling foul trouble in the second half, had just 10 points, but 18 rebounds.

Mickael Pietrus, who blocked one of James' shots late in this thriller, added 10.

You don't want to play "Can You Top This?" with James, the league MVP.

He broke away from Magic forward Hedo Turkoglu, who looked for all the world to be the hero. He had put the Magic ahead 95-93 with a jumper with one second left after tying it at 93 with another, completing what appeared to be another storybook comeback for Orlando, which trailed by as many as 23 points. .

Then James grabbed the ball and immediately fired over the 6-foot-10 Turkoglu, making a shot heard 'round Ohio. Replays verified the shot beat the clock — and the Magic.

What was even more amazing is that James — before shocking the Magic — was stunned by something he seldom sees: Officials calls going against him. He was called for two charges and then traveling before Turkoglu hit his tying shot.

Interesting stat for Magic conspiracy theorists to ponder:

King James came into Friday night's game — get this — having been whistled for just 12 fouls in nine postseason games; Howard was called for 56 in 14 games. Imagine how stunned LeBron and the crowd were.

Van Gundy had told his team during halftime of Game 1 — when they trailed by 15 points — that they were all "witnesses" to James' 26-point first-half performance.

Van Gundy was playing off James' national advertising campaign that salutes his greatness: "WE ARE ALL WITNESSES."

Cavs point guard Mo Williams hit a go-ahead 3-pointer after the Magic roared back from a 23-point deficit to lead 86-84, then kept the lead at three with another shot with under two minutes to play.

The Magic fell behind early in Game 1, trailing by as many 16 before intermission. This time, they were hit by an even harder round-house.

They trailed by 23 points at 43-20 almost midway through the second quarter after Joe Smith's 3-pointer.

The amazing thing was that of those 43 points, James had just eight and his supporting cast offered the rest. Orlando whittled the big deficit to 11 on J.J. Redick's jumper, the bench highlighting a 22-10 run. James made one of two free throws, but the Magic — despite shooting 39 percent and allowing the Cavs to shoot 51 — were behind by 12 at halftime.

Williams not only didn't believe in Magic, he wasn't the least bit impressed after losing Game 1 to Orlando. "I don't think they can beat us four times," he said.

Easier to say when you have LeBron, the miracle-worker.

Read Brian Schmitz's Magic blog at orlandosentinel.com/magicblog and e-mail him at bschmitz@orlandosentinel.com.
__________________
 
Re: NBA for opening week

I think LeBron wrote this...

CLEVELAND -- It was the silence that was so piercing.
As the ball arched through the air and carried the Cavaliers' championship hopes, it was so deathly quiet inside The Q that you could almost hear the red lamp on the backboard buzzer come to life.

Then there was a wall of noise, swallowing the final horn, swallowing LeBron James' gaping roar, swallowing the Orlando Magic's nearly flawless end-game execution in another skin-tight Eastern Conference finals game.

Who knows what moment will eventually define James' career, but what happened late Friday night will surely be in his last highlight package.

He took the last shot this time. A twisting, off-balance, miracle shot. A 3-pointer for the last of his 35 points that he released with less than one second on the clock and rattled through the rim to give the Cavs a 96-95 victory in Game 2, evening the series at 1-1.

"I was going to come get the ball no matter what happened. I knocked down the shot. Biggest shot I've made in my career." James said. "A second is a long time for me, for other it is very short. As a kid you practice those moments."

It came over the top of Magic forward Hedo Turkoglu, who experienced a wrenching twist of fate after he'd just made a heroic shot of his own. A pull-up jumper in the lane looked like it had finished off a 23-point comeback for the Magic, rallying from nine behind in the last nine minutes.

The Cavs had a timeout, though, and coach Mike Brown drew up a lob play for James. Turkoglu was warned it was coming, the Magic had seen it used against the Indiana Pacers in the same spot back in February. So Turkoglu flinched toward the basket when James pivoted as the play started.
Which is where James' fast-twitch muscle fibers, perhaps some of the fastest fibers in human history, allowed him to change course and get a few inches of freedom as he headed toward the top of the key. In one motion he caught Mo Williams' in-bounds pass and turned, somehow collecting his balance and equilibrium and squaring to the basket in roughly half a second.

"Golly. Whoo. He's an amazing player," Brown said. "Just to have the wherewithal. Just to have that confidence yourself. You're ending things right now. Not many people could do it. Amazing shot by an amazing player."

The Magic, who have now lost four games in the final second in this postseason, were left numb. They stood around not believing what they saw and started second-guessing and perhaps hoping they were saved by the replay. They were not.

Magic coach Stan Van Gundy was upset at the way he chose to defend James on the play. He declined to say why but it is assumed he thought he should have double teamed James to deny him the ball as they had done much of the fourth quarter. James had scored just four points in the fourth to that point.

"Turk played that play perfectly," Van Gundy said. "He took the backcut away, took away the first option that would have tied the game and led him into the option that won the game."

Not unlike what happened in Game 1, when the Cavs defended Rashard Lewis well only to have him go to the second option and hit a 3-pointer that won that game by a single point.

James' supporting cast was still not up their usual par, but the Cavs were able to gut their way through it and stay alive.

Williams had another poor shooting night, at times forcing the issue and still looking uncomfortable. But after starting 4-of-16 shooting, he did what he has done many times this season and made some clutch hoops before it was too late. Williams made three big shots and several times gave the Cavs the lead as he finished with 19 points.

The Cavs also got a gritty effort from Zydrunas Ilgauskas, who somehow was able to hold Magic star Dwight Howard to a near draw. He had 12 points with 15 rebounds as he battled and bruised with Howard all night.

Howard, thanks to some defensive techniques the Cavs employed, was not much of a factor as he finished with just 10 points and a still-impressive 18 rebounds.

Then there was Sasha Pavlovic. The major Game 2 adjustment, he came off the bench for 22 badly-needed and effective minutes and scored nine points.

Turkoglu finished with 21 points, including a 3-pointer with 48 seconds left that set up what he had to think was a Game 2 winner. Only that will be likely forgotten because of what James pulled off.

"Loudest it has ever been in this building is first time was the first year we made the playoffs," James said afterward. "Tonight surpassed that by 10 times. It was unbelievable. You couldn't hear anything but the roar. They deserve it."

Where LeBron Happens: James' incredible buzzer-beater rescues Cavaliers, 96-95 - cleveland.com
__________________
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

That ending was incredible, I'm glad I stayed up for that one. Last night, I went to bed down 7 after the 3rd quarter and woke up a winner.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

overkill, from the other site

Game 3 Cleveland/Orlando who ya got?

Cleveland at an unnatural +2
fairly big.
they go from 9 point favorites to dogs, yeah. Cleveland has led almost the entire series, and the dagger from last game has to give the Cavs just a little confidence. Cleveland is still a crazy -300 favorite for the series. That series price is telling me my number is about right, Cleveland -2. That 7 games with Boston is going to start taking it's toll and the Cavs defense should start becoming a presence. If not in game 4, then in game 5. If not in game 5...then they won't win the title unless they run the table. My point is that defense win championships and I think they have played by far the best defense this year and two lackluster defensive efforts after a long break doesn't really change my opinion or huge positions on Cleveland this year.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

I don't watch the games. haven't seen a playoff game yet.

rodfather on Cleveland. not good but he's been in a pretty big losing streak I hope he's due, that's really the first negative.
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

Hope you enjoyed the holiday, X. First quarter they were playing in mud it seemed. Hope it doesn't go too far over and jeapordize the game total. Thanks for posting, and GL.
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

I like Orlando tonight. The line is where it should have been for Game 3, and the more I watch these teams play, the more I believe Orlando is the better team. They are deeper off the bench, have many more scoring options than Cleveland, and don't rely on their superstar Howard to carry the whole load. Besides all that, Cleveland is playing with a lot of pressure, the whole city wants them to bring the first title in 45 years to the city, and they are playing scared and obviously are feeling the weight of expectations, outside of James. Orlando plays like they have nothing to lose, and someone's open for a three every time down the floor, it seems.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

I like Orlando tonight. The line is where it should have been for Game 3, and the more I watch these teams play, the more I believe Orlando is the better team. They are deeper off the bench, have many more scoring options than Cleveland, and don't rely on their superstar Howard to carry the whole load. Besides all that, Cleveland is playing with a lot of pressure, the whole city wants them to bring the first title in 45 years to the city, and they are playing scared and obviously are feeling the weight of expectations, outside of James. Orlando plays like they have nothing to lose, and someone's open for a three every time down the floor, it seems.
i agree, and how many did james score in the losing game there, like 41 or so, i don't see orlando putting in a g4 laker effort here,points and ml split maybe my outs tonight..
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Brutal, that is all I can say, BRUTAL.
sure was. I figured Denver would blow out LA in the 2nd half and also figured that the 3rd quarter had about a 55% chance of going over. If the 3rd didn't go over then they would need to score over 60 (at least) for the full game to go over. A +EV hedge for lack of a better term. would do it all over again, I don't think I've ever lost to a 78 point 4th quarter before.

I'm waiting on 2h with Cleveland. I agree with the matchup problems, the thing is if the Cavs can hit just 2-3 shots more it's a different story, as bad as they played last game it was still within reach until the very end. line is where I had it for game 3. It doesn't seem like the refs are getting as involved this year but game 4 might be where they start.

G4 Cleveland/Orlando 1st q under 47 for 1.5%
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Hi, :+waving-5
every night situation is getting more and more interesting. But still anyone believes,that Orlando will win series versus Cavs ? Stern will lose a lot of millions bucks :hangt ,if there will no be final KB24 vs LJ23,that we all know very well. If Cavs lose today ,they will win home game for sure. Just LJ injury can stop them. And after that ,they will come to Orlando down 2-3 and wil tie the series,because there will be two teams - Orlando and home crowd versus - Cavs,nba monsters and refs.... i still believe ,that Cavs will be in final, because in next year Cavs will not be so strong,if there will no be trades.

But ,the question is about today :+clueless - if we look todays refs :

Scott Foster: Home Team W/L 46-31, Over/Under 47-29, 33-41 ATS
Mike Callahan: Home Team W/L 37-26, OVer/Under 34-26, 30-33 ATS
Joe DeRosa: Home Team W/L 39-32, Over/Under 32-39, 28-41 ATS

If someones doesnt knows nothing about Scott Foster ,there will some info:
1) <!-- m -->http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,381842,00.html<!-- m -->
2) <!-- m -->http://www.faniq.com/blog/NBA-Ref-Scott ... Blog-10294<!-- m -->
if see,he is not just a ref :devil:

so, are they gonna start push Cavs to tie with just few strange calls tonight or not yet, thats the question ,i think. :+clueless If we put on paper just each team - Cavs no chances....:nono
if they are gonna start tonight- i think it must be over and Cavs. If not....Orlando must take it.
Game will start slowly and then will go over the line. :blink:
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

I don't think the refs are powerful enough to save the Cavs. They have blown two huge leads at home, were a miracle 3 from dropping both, and watched Orlando control the tenor of the entire game 3. I don't see where the Cavs get enough scoring to hold off Orlando in this series. X and I are on them to win it all, (although his position is much stronger with a better price and other options) but I'm to the point of bailing because of what I've seen in these 3 games.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Of course , someone must be on the floor and show the best what they can. But don't You think,that they will start calling today just for safety? If they will leave it on next games,nobody will like that,imo. I personally like Orl too,but i'm afraid of stupid calls. Maybe its just because of y-days awfull 4th qtr 2938u4ji23
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

I haven't seen a hint of bias in the officiating, except for a call here and there for James. And, I repeat, the refs are not going to decide this series, even though LA/CLE would be the best ratings grab, Denver and especially Orlando are well-equipped to prevent it from happening. Outside of James, Cleveland is a boring team to watch, and I remember their series vs. San Antonio in the Finals 2 years ago was almost unwatchable. Maybe the league, even if they desire a LA/CLE Finals, will allow new stars like Anthony and Howard, to bask in the limelight. If I had seen enough in the first 3 games to believe otherwise, I would admit it. I thought Cleveland would make the Finals on merit, but now, I'm not sure the officials are on any particular side, so the team that plays the best will win.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

pacoo,

good question. in short, if I had the answer I would be betting on the full game. all I can say is that I do like the Cavs in this spot. but things seem a little different this year as far as the 'help'. but they might not start the 'aid' until this late. I will say that the 'help' theory has made me a lot of money the last several years, and the Cavs definitely fit the criteria. I've seen some crazy things happen, but probably nothing as crazy as Reggie Miller NY Killer. I've been thinking about Cavs being down 3-1. Obviously, I don't want that, but down 3games to 1 this team would not be done. Maybe that's the 'plan'. My favorite NBA memory was the Rockets coming back against dirty Ainge and the Suns. Mario Elie's Kiss of Death is up their with Ric Flair.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

I haven't seen a hint of bias in the officiating, except for a call here and there for James. And, I repeat, the refs are not going to decide this series, even though LA/CLE would be the best ratings grab, Denver and especially Orlando are well-equipped to prevent it from happening. Outside of James, Cleveland is a boring team to watch, and I remember their series vs. San Antonio in the Finals 2 years ago was almost unwatchable. Maybe the league, even if they desire a LA/CLE Finals, will allow new stars like Anthony and Howard, to bask in the limelight. If I had seen enough in the first 3 games to believe otherwise, I would admit it. I thought Cleveland would make the Finals on merit, but now, I'm not sure the officials are on any particular side, so the team that plays the best will win.
before LeBron lifted the dagger, he was called on an offensive foul and I think travelled a series or two before that. I haven't seen any of these games but I do watch a lot of the play-by-play. kinda weird IMO, usually he gets touch fouls AND1 type scenarios, going by years past. What would NOT surprise me is Cleveland going down 3-1 and coming back to win the series. talk about a ratings bonanza...
 
Re: NBA for opening week

What would NOT surprise me is Cleveland going down 3-1 and coming back to win the series. talk about a ratings bonanza...

in fact this is exactly what I think will happen. the odds have to be over fairly big but with a gun to my head this would be my decision. would make perfect sense. perception, prediction, and reality are not always the same. :cheers
 
Re: NBA for opening week

Plus, you have the Hack-A-Howard strategy by Cleveland, and who knows how D Howard will do at the line. Introduces something that could be a variable in what should be a close game.
 

munson15

I want winners...
Re: NBA for opening week

before LeBron lifted the dagger, he was called on an offensive foul and I think travelled a series or two before that. I haven't seen any of these games but I do watch a lot of the play-by-play. kinda weird IMO, usually he gets touch fouls AND1 type scenarios, going by years past. What would NOT surprise me is Cleveland going down 3-1 and coming back to win the series. talk about a ratings bonanza...
I do remember those calls, and that's what has me puzzled. They MUST 'want' the James-Bryant Final that everyone will talk about, but they hurt them at the end, and James was shocked.
 
Re: NBA for opening week

seems like they are playing the "lets extend the series" game. at 5:27 in the 1st the score is not representative of the stats, fwiw. Cleveland should be down by 5-7.
 
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