ATX
2
Re: NBA for opening week
info courtesy of Grand Slam.
B Lang:
10 dime:Orlando
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(1) Cleveland (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS) at (3) Orlando (9-6 SU, 7-8 ATS)
The Cavaliers, who had to battle to earn a home split in the first two games of the Eastern Conference finals, make the trip to Amway Arena for Game 3 against the Magic, who are coming off a stunning Game 2 loss.
Cleveland beat Orlando 96-95 Friday night, winning on LeBron James’ highlight reel catch-and-shoot 3-pointer off an inbounds pass with just one second left on the clock, but the Cavaliers failed to cover as a heavy nine-point home chalk. James finished with 35 points and five assists, though he also committed six turnovers as Cleveland blew all of a 23-point first-half lead before eking out the victory. Mo Williams scored 19 and Zydrunas Ilgauskas had a double-double of 12 points and 15 rebounds.
The Cavs were yielding just 78.1 ppg in the first two rounds of the playoffs, but have now given up 107 and 95 points, respectively, to the Magic.
Rashard Lewis paced Orlando with 23 points, hitting 4 of 7 from 3-point range, and Hedo Turkoglu had 21 points, including a 3-pointer that tied the game at 93 and a 12-foot jumper in the lane that gave the Magic a 95-93 lead with one second remaining. Dwight Howard had just 10 points but grabbed 18 rebounds.
The Magic are on a 12-1 ATS tear in this rivalry, including cashing in five of the last six meetings in Orlando. This year, Orlando is 3-2 SU and 5-0 ATS against the Cavaliers. The underdog is now 10-3 ATS in the last 11 clashes, and the road team is on an 8-3 ATS roll.
Cleveland is 31-14 SU (25-20 ATS) on the road this year, including 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) in the playoffs. Orlando is 36-11 SU (26-21 ATS) at home, including 4-2 SU (3-3 ATS) in the postseason.
The Cavaliers are 31-5 SU in their last 36 starts and remain on virtually nothing but positive ATS runs, including 11-3 overall, 6-2 in the Eastern Conference finals, 40-20 after a non-cover, 5-1 on the road, and 10-2 after a SU win. However, Mike Brown’s troops are just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 starts against Southeast Division squads.
The Magic are on ATS upticks of 8-3 overall (4-0 in their last four), 7-1 against the Central Division, 5-2 after a spread-cover and a lengthy 50-21-1 following a SU loss, but they are just 5-15 ATS as a home chalk of less than five points.
The first two games of this series cleared the posted price, and the over for Cleveland is on rolls of 5-0 in the conference finals and 5-1 with the Cavs an underdog. But the Cavs remain on “under” streaks of 4-0 on the road, 6-2 after a SU win and 16-7 as a playoff pup. Likewise, the under for Orlando is on runs 22-10 overall, 4-1 at home, 6-1 with the Magic a playoff chalk and 26-10 overall with the Magic laying points at home.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in 11 of the last 17 meetings in Orlando (11-5-1).
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO
Johnny Guild
Conference Finals
Sunday, May 24, 2009 8:30 PM EST.
Cleveland Cavaliers (75-17) at Orlando Magic (68-29)
I believe we will see another close gung ho clash tonight at Amway Arena. Orlando will get through their painful buzzer defeat in game 2 and even the score against the Cavaliers on their home court. The Magic have won nine of the last 13 clashes against Cleveland at home and are 5-1 ATS in its last 6 home games versus the Cavaliers. Take Orlando! Lay the 1.5point with the home favorite in this rivalry.
Matt Farrgo
9* NBA STAR ATTRACTION *58.9% ATS RUN*
Cleveland at Orlando
Play: Orlando -1.5
Momentum could not be any more on the side of the Cavaliers right now. Had that been in Game One, Cleveland would have had a big edge for Game Two since it would have remained home. In this case, the Cavaliers have to travel to Orlando and I think that any momentum gained by the LeBron clutch shot, is lost due to the change in venue. Most importantly, we have seen that Orlando matches up extremely well with the Cavaliers, arguably the toughest matchup they have of any team in the NBA. Also, the fact that the series is tied and Orlando has stolen the home court edge, you can say that it and not the Cavaliers have the momentum edge. Orlando was able to come back in both games from huge deficits and that alone says a lot about the character of this team. The slow starts in both games may be considered an issue as in the two first quarters of the series, Cleveland has held Orlando to 34 percent shooting and 17.5 points per quarter. ESPN analyst Jon Barry summed it up perfectly. “Obviously, a lot of people think Orlando is going to be devastated after LeBron hit that game-winning shot, but the team is going to be fine,” he said. “This is a great series and it's not going to be decided by that shot. I think people put way too much emphasis on how a team does the game before and worry too much about one shot impacting the psyche of a team. NBA teams seem to put a game behind them a lot easier in the playoffs than regular season.” I cannot agree more with that statement since short-term memory is the key and will no doubt be the key for tonight. If there was good that came from the heartbreaking loss, it might be that the Magic now seem to have no fear of the Cavaliers and forward Hedo Turkoglu said that watching the Cavaliers jubilant celebration was fuel for them going into the rest of the series. Cleveland may still be considered the best team in the Eastern Conference or the NBA but it has not fared well against the top teams. The Cavaliers are just 2-10 ATS this season against teams with a winning percentage greater than .700. Orlando meanwhile is 10-2 in its last 12 games dating back to last season against teams outscoring opponents by nine or more ppg. Say what you want about Stan Van Gundy but Orlando is 28-6 ATS off a road loss in games he has coached in Orlando. Also, the Magic are 12-2 ATS after playing three consecutive road games over the last two seasons. 9* Orlando Magic
Jamie Tursini
Cleveland at Orlando
Pick: Orlando -1.5
My "Power Ratings" have Orlando as a 4.5 point favorite getting great value. Orlando knows that they are every bit as good as Cleveland if not better. In the two regular season meetings at home the Magic were 3.5 and 5 point favorites winning both 116-87, and 99-88 respectively. Holding the Cavs to a combined 39.2% shooting percentage, while shooting a combined 49.3% themselves. Through the first two games Orlando has shot 51.5% from the field to Cleveland's 47.2%. It's clear that Orlando poses offensive matchup problems for Cleveland. Particularly H.Turkoglu and R.Lewis. Who are a combined 28-56 50% from the field with 81 points. As the series has shifted to Orlando, these will stand out more and more.
info courtesy of Grand Slam.