Ned - I want to be a believer

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ComptrBob

EOG Master
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

7/21: 0-1, -115
Overall: 85-86-2, -997.50

For July 22:
Biggest dog on the ML: Orioles +275, thus:
MLB Orioles +1.5 +135, risk 100 to win 135
 
C

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

7/22: 0-1, -100
Overall: 85-87-2, -1097.50

For July 23:
Biggest dog on the ML: Padres +255, (write-in game) thus:
MLB Padres +1.5 +115, risk 100 to win 115
 
Q

quisp

2
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

bob: considering the recent rash of RL losers, maybe it's time to switch to the post Aug 1st plays. just a thought and thanks for keepin' score.
 
C

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

quisp said:
bob: considering the recent rash of RL losers, maybe it's time to switch to the post Aug 1st plays. just a thought and thanks for keepin' score.
Click to expand...

Switching in midstream from a current, short losing proposition is just human nature wanting to avoid further losses. However, its exactly the wrong thing to do for this thread.

What we are accumulating here is the out-of-sample performance of datamined statistical trends from past years. It is the "proof of the pudding" as to whether a trend can be relied on to be statistically significant. Tweaking the rules destroys out-of-sample significance, the trend has already been tweaked in its creation, further tweaking is very likely to result in just random results going forward.
 
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ComptrBob

EOG Master
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

7/23: 0-1, -100
Overall: 85-88-2, -1197.50

For July 24:
Biggest dog on the ML: A's +196, thus:
MLB A's +1.5 -121, risk 121 to win 100
 
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ComptrBob

EOG Master
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

Thanks for the comment, Tim. My tracking here will end on July 31 and I'll analyse the results of all of Ned's trend plays.

7/24: 0-1, -121
Overall: 85-89-2, -1318.50

For July 25:
Biggest dog on the ML: A's +285, thus:
MLB A's +1.5 +140, risk 100 to win 140
 
C

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

7/25: 1-0, +140
Overall: 86-89-2, -1178.50

For July 26:
Biggest dog on the ML: Reds +202, thus:
MLB Reds +1.5 -110, risk 110 to win 100
 
C

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

7/26: 0-1, -110
Overall: 86-90-2, -1288.50

For July 27:
Biggest dog on the ML: A's +295, thus:
MLB A's +1.5 +130, risk 100 to win 130
 
C

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

7/27: 0-1, -100
Overall: 86-91-2, -1388.50

For July 28:
Biggest dog on the ML: A's +212, thus:
MLB A's +1.5 -105, risk 105 to win 100
 
C

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

7/28: 1-0, +100
Overall: 87-91-2, -1288.50

For July 29:
Biggest dog on the ML: Nats +180, thus:
MLB Nats +1.5 -118, risk 118 to win 100
 
C

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

7/29: 0-1, -118
Overall: 87-92-2, -1406.50

For July 30:
Biggest dog on the ML: A's +330, thus:
MLB A's +1.5 +140, risk 100 to win 140
 
C

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

7/30: 0-1, -100 (two bad beats in a row!)
Overall: 87-93-2, -1506.50

For July 31: Trade Deadline, last day of tracking
Biggest dog on the ML: Royals +218, thus:
MLB Royals +1.5 +103, risk 100 to win 103
 
C

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Re: Ned - I want to be a believer

7/31: 0-1, -100
Overall: 87-94-2, -1606.50

Final summary:

MLB Dog RL: 41-57 (3 No Action), -2237.00
NBA 1: 1-2, -105.00
NBA 2: 3-3, -69.00
NBA 25: 5-4, +30.50
NBA UN: 37-28, +774.00

Separate record:
NBA 25 ML: 3-4, +240.00

NBA Legend:
1: RD 1, #1 seed, fav by 10+
2: Gm1 loss to worse seed
4: RD1, Gm1 #1 seed loss <10
UN: Top 5 Off/Def Under
25: prev loss >=25
25 ML: dog & prev loss >=25
 
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