Next great investment: Gold and Silver
- Thread starter pro analyser
- Start date
hard to get a good read on fertilizer....NTR.it's about $74...in 2022 it was about $113
brent $111.4
crude $97.84
gold futures $4419
gold keeps dropping because oil going up bonds better play ...
grab the oil ....again..crazy thought ...running china's gold to the ground
vix 26...+3.77%
brent $111.4
crude $97.84
gold futures $4419
gold keeps dropping because oil going up bonds better play ...
grab the oil ....again..crazy thought ...running china's gold to the ground
vix 26...+3.77%
Last edited:
Metals getting pounded Sunday evening.
Getting back to the fertilizers, The Mosaic (MOS) is a US fertilizer company that has been around for years. Most of the time, people disregard it as irrelevant; some investors own it for the 3.6% yield. But every once in a while, its rockets upward. From under $20 to near $160 in 2008. Then back down to $20 before touching $80 in 2011. Fast forward to 2022 and once again, the same scenario panned out. This one could go much higher if this conflict drags out.
very true. fertilizer is having a good day... you probably have this.... I use AI to match up and compare places... and punch in info...AI is a great tool for anything
Precious metals have tumbled since war broke out in the Persian Gulf. In today’s post, I run through various explanations for what’s going on. There’s three theories that are doing the rounds in markets. First, the crazy run-up in precious metals before the war no doubt sucked in lots of retail investors who didn’t trade things like gold before. It’s reasonable to think that this broader investor base may change how precious metals trade, making them behave more like risk assets rather than safe haven assets. That’s consistent with gold selling off on oil price spikes and rallying - in the last day or two - on expectations of detente. Second, it’s likely that lots of people were sitting on big gains in precious metals. A rise in uncertainty makes you want to take your chips off the table, so people - reasonably - may have locked in some of those gains. Third, the rise in volatility put other positions - especially in the hedge fund community - under water. That kind of thing means people get hit with margin calls, for which they need liquidity. That might see them sell profitable positions to free up cash. Gold will have been one of those positions. I don’t think any of these things invalidate the safe haven status of gold nor the debasement trade. They do signal that the buyer base may have broadened, which is why we’re seeing atypical price action now.
The four charts above show price action in gold (top left), silver (top right), platinum (bottom left) and the S&P 500 (bottom right) since the start of hostilities in the Gulf. I compare current price action to what happened after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, to give historical perspective in a similar kind of shock. A couple of points are worth making. First, all precious metals are down since the outbreak of war. Gold is down 15 percent, silver is down 25 percent and platinum is down 20 percent. To put this in perspective, the S&P 500 is down five percent over the same period. Precious metals have thus clearly underperformed. Second, a fall in the S&P 500 of five percent hardly qualifies as a big risk-off, which means that the safe haven status of gold won’t have been triggered. That makes me inclined to think recent declines are a vestige of the huge run up in precious metals prices and positioning. Third, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine didn’t really trigger much of a rally in gold or other precious metals and the S&P 500 - on a similar time scale - is almost identical to now. That again leans in the direction of this being a positioning purge.
My favored explanation for the recent sell-off is that the crazy run-up in precious metals has broadened the investor base. It’s possible that this - at least right now - is making precious metals trade more like risk assets, which would explain why they fell as the conflict escalated and - in recent days - rallied as signs of detente emerged. It’s also likely that high volatility hit some parts of the market hard. It’s not unusual for profitable positions to get liquidated when people get hit with margin calls for trades that are under water. Lastly, it’d be perfectly reasonable for people to lock in gains as uncertainty rises. You take your chips off the table when you don’t understand what’s going on. None of these explanations invalidate the debasement trade, of which I’ve become a fan. After all, fiscal policy in the US and elsewhere is just as reckless as before the war, so the search for safe havens from debt monetization will persist.
The four charts above show price action in gold (top left), silver (top right), platinum (bottom left) and the S&P 500 (bottom right) since the start of hostilities in the Gulf. I compare current price action to what happened after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, to give historical perspective in a similar kind of shock. A couple of points are worth making. First, all precious metals are down since the outbreak of war. Gold is down 15 percent, silver is down 25 percent and platinum is down 20 percent. To put this in perspective, the S&P 500 is down five percent over the same period. Precious metals have thus clearly underperformed. Second, a fall in the S&P 500 of five percent hardly qualifies as a big risk-off, which means that the safe haven status of gold won’t have been triggered. That makes me inclined to think recent declines are a vestige of the huge run up in precious metals prices and positioning. Third, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine didn’t really trigger much of a rally in gold or other precious metals and the S&P 500 - on a similar time scale - is almost identical to now. That again leans in the direction of this being a positioning purge.
My favored explanation for the recent sell-off is that the crazy run-up in precious metals has broadened the investor base. It’s possible that this - at least right now - is making precious metals trade more like risk assets, which would explain why they fell as the conflict escalated and - in recent days - rallied as signs of detente emerged. It’s also likely that high volatility hit some parts of the market hard. It’s not unusual for profitable positions to get liquidated when people get hit with margin calls for trades that are under water. Lastly, it’d be perfectly reasonable for people to lock in gains as uncertainty rises. You take your chips off the table when you don’t understand what’s going on. None of these explanations invalidate the debasement trade, of which I’ve become a fan. After all, fiscal policy in the US and elsewhere is just as reckless as before the war, so the search for safe havens from debt monetization will persist.
trumps said the US is speaking with Iran .......Iran says no..
the price between crude and brent is 11 dollars.......okay it's the paper market
if there was a deal the missiles would not be flying into Israel and more men would not be going to iran
it doesn't sound right to me....
the price between crude and brent is 11 dollars.......okay it's the paper market
if there was a deal the missiles would not be flying into Israel and more men would not be going to iran
it doesn't sound right to me....
Agree......sending 3,000 of the 82nd Airborne to the region doesn't sound like a cease fire to me.
Iran said they want reparations.........trumps doesn't wasn't to pay anything
He was lying yesterday LOL
remember China and Russia are talking to Iran...Iran is sharp
There will be reparations, no doubt. That will likely be the first concession we make, IMO.
BTW, gold finally hit the 200 DMA yesterday, and has positively bounced off it.
I don't think the big boys know exactly what's going down. Market looks paralyzed. Friday deadline could be a tell.
Iran will not agree unless the US caves in....Trump bit off more than he can chew and he knows it....that is bad for everyone in the US and allies.
need technology to do good XLK -5.01%
no growth in the stock market SPYG -6.55%
So we get financials doing bad XLF -9.91%
S&P .....VOO -3.42%
Did you say Energy ? XLE +35.47%
Last edited:
we are not fooling china and russia, if we don't pay up iran will continue hitting everyone in the mid east. The US fell into a trap now . If we leave and go home we look weak and lose mid east friends..
IRAN wants more VIG
I agree and ultimately we are going to have to pay up to get the SoH open. Home field advantage is real. Did we not learn anything from Afghanistan or Vietnam? How many of us felt Russia would bury Ukraine within weeks? It just isn't that easy.
The Xi and Trump summit now moved to May 14-15. Looks like we need to hold on the rest of March and april before going higher in May.
Urea is the most popular nitrogen-based fertilizer in the world, valued for its high nutrient concentration and cost-effectiveness. It contains 46% nitrogen, making it a potent tool for promoting lush, green leafy growth and high crop yields.
Key Benefits
it's planting season
Key Benefits
- High Nitrogen Content: At 46% nitrogen, it provides more "bang for your buck" than other options like ammonium sulfate or DAP.
- Versatility: Suitable for almost all soil types and a wide range of plants, including cereals (wheat, corn, rice), vegetables, fruit trees, and lawns.
- Water Soluble: It dissolves quickly, allowing for rapid absorption by plants when applied correctly.
- Cost-Effective: Typically cheaper per unit of nitrogen than other synthetic fertilizers.
it's planting season
Gold up 3.3% to 4500. Silver up 4.3% to 70 Oil up to 99.79 dollar up 100.19. Could this be a turning point? Because Bitcoin 65,709 and Sand P both down.
Pretty good day for the metals; precious and monetary. Oil obviously a big day. Good day for the ferts as well. All much better places to be than the overall markets.
When the war with Iran began, I wrote a series of pieces about which countries would benefit from higher oil prices and who’d be hurt. Turkey was top of the list in terms of countries getting hurt, because it’s a large oil importer and because it heavily manages the exchange rate, which forces the central bank to prop up the Lira when a spike in oil prices - like now - exerts depreciation pressure.
That isn’t how things have played out so far. The Turkish Lira has fallen about one percent against the Dollar since the end of February, which is less than the Brazilian Real (down two percent) or the Chilean Peso (down five percent). However, in foreign exchange appearances can be deceiving, because some countries are more aggressive about managing their exchange rates than others. Turkey is one of these. In fact, its central bank has been intervening so heavily that it’s had to tap its gold holdings.
[TABLE]
The chart above shows weekly data for holdings of gold (in metric tons) by Turkey’s central bank. Depreciation pressure on the Lira has been so big that the central bank has tapped 50 tons of its gold holdings. It’s unlikely all of this was sold, given prices have been falling recently. Some of this drop most likely reflects gold being used as collateral for actual foreign exchange, giving the central bank more Dollars and Euros to defend the Lira. Regardless, depreciation pressure on the Lira has been immense.
The big question is whether Turkey is an idiosyncratic case or whether it reflects more broadly on what’s going on across EM. My best guess is that Turkey’s exchange rate makes it an outlier. Most EMs allow their currencies to float freely, so there’s no need to intervene as heavily as Turkey. And even if they intervened, they’ll have used liquid foreign exchange instead of tapping their gold holdings, especially with prices falling. So I’m still doubtful central banks are behind the recent fall in gold prices.
Of course, it’s true that most Gulf countries peg their currencies to the Dollar, most obviously Saudi Arabia. But - as I noted in a recent post - it’s likely that Saudi export revenues from oil have risen since the outbreak of hostilities because the big rise in oil prices more than offsets the hit from somewhat lower export volumes.
That isn’t how things have played out so far. The Turkish Lira has fallen about one percent against the Dollar since the end of February, which is less than the Brazilian Real (down two percent) or the Chilean Peso (down five percent). However, in foreign exchange appearances can be deceiving, because some countries are more aggressive about managing their exchange rates than others. Turkey is one of these. In fact, its central bank has been intervening so heavily that it’s had to tap its gold holdings.
[TABLE]
The chart above shows weekly data for holdings of gold (in metric tons) by Turkey’s central bank. Depreciation pressure on the Lira has been so big that the central bank has tapped 50 tons of its gold holdings. It’s unlikely all of this was sold, given prices have been falling recently. Some of this drop most likely reflects gold being used as collateral for actual foreign exchange, giving the central bank more Dollars and Euros to defend the Lira. Regardless, depreciation pressure on the Lira has been immense.
The big question is whether Turkey is an idiosyncratic case or whether it reflects more broadly on what’s going on across EM. My best guess is that Turkey’s exchange rate makes it an outlier. Most EMs allow their currencies to float freely, so there’s no need to intervene as heavily as Turkey. And even if they intervened, they’ll have used liquid foreign exchange instead of tapping their gold holdings, especially with prices falling. So I’m still doubtful central banks are behind the recent fall in gold prices.
Of course, it’s true that most Gulf countries peg their currencies to the Dollar, most obviously Saudi Arabia. But - as I noted in a recent post - it’s likely that Saudi export revenues from oil have risen since the outbreak of hostilities because the big rise in oil prices more than offsets the hit from somewhat lower export volumes.
