Next great investment: Gold and Silver
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Beautiful work, Mr President.
Sell off after 15m talk is pure comedy. Big pocket chumps running for the 3-day weekend. Nothing new, after all these bastards have been living off shorting for years now. Thing is, the new $$ is not there anymore. Poor babies.
I was watching the futures during the speech. Dow up 75-100 early on, S & P similar. Once he said “inflation near zero”, the bullshit detectors within all the trading algos started kicking in. When he started talking about oil, then the markets went negative and it was obvious Thursday would be a down day and the 2 day Mon-Tues gains were nothing more than a bear market rally.
brent $108
crude $112
wait till you see the pumps tomorrow...forget about diesel..much higher
S&P -4% year to date
greatest economy ...LOL
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I already filled up. Was about $0.15/gallon less than last week. Local outlets need a few hours to adjust. There's a chance 2027 could be decent.
if you have the S&P.............. ENERGY is only 3% of the S&P
so you need to play oil to offset the loss..... now the question is how long with this energy shock last?
trump has been saying 2-3 weeks for quite a while...this is how iraq started
Israel water infrastructure was hit
so you need to play oil to offset the loss..... now the question is how long with this energy shock last?
trump has been saying 2-3 weeks for quite a while...this is how iraq started
Israel water infrastructure was hit
Oil above $85 rest of 2026 if the war stops tomorrow. If he says otherwise, he's either lying or ignorant.
No mention at all last night of the supporting supply disruptions. Nat gas, potash, nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, helium, a big input in semis, sulfuric acid and urea, among others.
Iran Predictions & Real-Time Odds | Polymarket
Explore the latest Iran predictions on Polymarket as of April 2, 2026. Track real-time odds and trade on The World's Largest Prediction Market™
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The public took a beating today; thinking they could play the TACO card on oil. It backfired.
The public took a beating today; thinking they could play the TACO card on oil. It backfired.
yep... the problem with leverage. to be played like smash and grab......... the longer you hold it you will lose long term...all leverage is this way. Not to be played long term. The premium you pay each day is hidden, too much vig BUT good for a quick hit.
Where there used to be just one benchmark for global oil prices, there’s now all kinds of numbers floating around, so I want to use today’s post to explain what’s happening and what numbers I track as the most important. Fundamentally, things are confusing because markets don’t trade oil the way we buy gasoline for our cars. We drive around and - when the tank’s empty - we head to the gas station and fill up. Markets call that a “spot” transaction, meaning we take delivery of gasoline immediately and hand over cash in return. The way oil gets traded in global markets is in futures contracts, which entitle you to delivery at some future date (most futures contracts don’t involve actual physical delivery, but let’s leave that nuance aside). In normal times, the “front-month” futures contract for Brent is the benchmark global oil price because it’s a good proxy for what’s going on in the “spot” market, but that’s no longer the case. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused a huge scramble for oil, so the “spot” Brent oil price has risen sharply, while the futures price for the end of June (the current “front-month” contract) is up far less, presumably on expectations of a rapid end to the war. It’s this futures price that matters and that price now stands at $112 per barrel.
The chart above has four lines. The white line is the “spot” price (in US Dollars) for a barrel of Brent oil. The orange line is the price for the “front-month” Brent future that expired this week on Tuesday, March 31, whereafter the “front-month” future shifted to June, which is the yellow line. The green line is “spot” WTI, which is the benchmark oil price for the US. As the chart shows, there’s a huge gap between the June future and the “spot” Brent oil price. The main reason for this is that markets think war will end soon, so they’re pricing some normalization in global oil markets by June (Brent was $72.5 before the war, so markets aren’t pricing full normalization).
If the war lasts longer, the orange line shows what will happen. As that futures contract neared expiry, it got dragged up towards the “spot” oil price, as the futures contract essentially became a “spot” contract. This means the yellow line will move up towards the white line if tanker traffic is still far from normal in June. If tanker traffic resumes more quickly, it’ll be the white line that converges down towards the yellow line. All this also helps explain why “spot” WTI has stayed below Brent. There’s large shipping costs involved in taking WTI out of the US, so - given that the June future for Brent doesn’t price an apocalyptic scenario - this doesn’t make. In short, there’s limited incentive to take oil out of the US as long as markets expect a short war.
Let me conclude with two points. First, the “front-month” futures contract - currently the June contract - is the key oil price. It’s this oil price I’ve used in all my scenario analysis for how high oil prices can go in an embargo - given that an embargo will have a medium-term impact - and it’s this price President Trump is trying to manage when he promises a short war (because it most obviously impacts WTI and thus prices at US gas stations). Second, there’s lots of bombastic talk how the “paper” market (a grandiose way of saying “futures”) has disconnected from the “physical” market (a grandiose way of saying “spot”) and is therefore broken. That’s nonsense. Futures markets naturally embed expectations of when the war ends. Maybe those are wrong, but that’s exactly what futures markets are supposed to do. There’s nothing wrong with this disconnect.
The chart above has four lines. The white line is the “spot” price (in US Dollars) for a barrel of Brent oil. The orange line is the price for the “front-month” Brent future that expired this week on Tuesday, March 31, whereafter the “front-month” future shifted to June, which is the yellow line. The green line is “spot” WTI, which is the benchmark oil price for the US. As the chart shows, there’s a huge gap between the June future and the “spot” Brent oil price. The main reason for this is that markets think war will end soon, so they’re pricing some normalization in global oil markets by June (Brent was $72.5 before the war, so markets aren’t pricing full normalization).
If the war lasts longer, the orange line shows what will happen. As that futures contract neared expiry, it got dragged up towards the “spot” oil price, as the futures contract essentially became a “spot” contract. This means the yellow line will move up towards the white line if tanker traffic is still far from normal in June. If tanker traffic resumes more quickly, it’ll be the white line that converges down towards the yellow line. All this also helps explain why “spot” WTI has stayed below Brent. There’s large shipping costs involved in taking WTI out of the US, so - given that the June future for Brent doesn’t price an apocalyptic scenario - this doesn’t make. In short, there’s limited incentive to take oil out of the US as long as markets expect a short war.
Let me conclude with two points. First, the “front-month” futures contract - currently the June contract - is the key oil price. It’s this oil price I’ve used in all my scenario analysis for how high oil prices can go in an embargo - given that an embargo will have a medium-term impact - and it’s this price President Trump is trying to manage when he promises a short war (because it most obviously impacts WTI and thus prices at US gas stations). Second, there’s lots of bombastic talk how the “paper” market (a grandiose way of saying “futures”) has disconnected from the “physical” market (a grandiose way of saying “spot”) and is therefore broken. That’s nonsense. Futures markets naturally embed expectations of when the war ends. Maybe those are wrong, but that’s exactly what futures markets are supposed to do. There’s nothing wrong with this disconnect.
Here’s one that will anger everyone’s favorite pretend geophysist, Greta Thunberg: the COAL ETF. Coal use may be decreasing here to some extent, but definitely not elsewhere. Nat gas shortages mean more coal use. This ETF is international, with a number of Australian and Asian miners.
What central banks do with their international reserves is opaque. Data are often available only at low frequency and with long lags. There’s reasons for this. Central bank asset purchases are often controversial. Just imagine all the low-yielding US Treasuries held across emerging markets (EM) and how that money could be put to better use. Not to mention the possibility that - if markets get wind of what central banks are up to - they’ll try front-running them.There’s three exceptions to this: India, Thailand and Turkey. All three publish weekly data on international reserves broken down into foreign exchange and gold holdings. Turkey is the most transparent because it puts out weekly data on volumes of gold held by its central bank, allowing you to see directly how much gets sold or swapped without having to back this out yourself. You have to infer intervention by adjusting for valuation changes from movements in the price of gold for the other two.
In a recent post, I flagged that gold held by Turkey’s central bank has fallen sharply. This drop is a direct reflection of Turkey’s crawling peg, which commits the central bank to sell its foreign exchange (FX) reserves when Lira is under pressure. As those reserves have fallen, the central bank has sold and swapped gold holdings to bolster its FX reserves. In the four weeks from February 27 to March 27, gold holdings went from 820 to 700 metric tons, boosting FX reserves by $18 billion. You have to factor that in when you look at the recent fall in FX reserves. When you do that, it puts FX intervention to support the Lira at $37 billion over the past month, on par with what happened after the arrest of Ekrem İmamoğlu in March 2025. That’s big, but I don’t think it generalizes to the rest of EM.
The chart above shows weekly valuation-adjusted changes in gold holdings of central banks in Turkey (blue), India (black) and Thailand (red). I calculate these in three steps. First, I calculate the weekly change in Dollar value of each central bank’s holdings. This combines valuation changes and actual buying or selling of gold. Second, I strip out the valuation component by calculating the valuation gain or loss that would have happened if the stock had remained unchanged. Third, I subtract this valuation change from the total change in step one.
When I sum valuation-adjusted weekly changes for the four weeks from February 27 to March 27, the drop is -$18 billion for Turkey, while valuation-adjusted holdings for India and Thailand are essentially flat. That supports my general view that Turkey is an outlier in EM due to its exchange rate peg. This suggests that the fall in gold since hostilities in the Gulf began is about retail investors freaking out, not broader selling across EM central banks.
Let's go back exactly 5 years to compare various assets:
April 6, 2021:
Gold $1743
Silver $ 25
Bitcoin $58,192
S & P 500: 4,074
April 6, 2026
Gold $4,653
Silver $ 73
Bitcoin: $68,531
S & P 500: 6,612
Gains:
Silver: 192%
Gold: 167%
S & P: 62%
Bitcoin: 18%
April 6, 2021:
Gold $1743
Silver $ 25
Bitcoin $58,192
S & P 500: 4,074
April 6, 2026
Gold $4,653
Silver $ 73
Bitcoin: $68,531
S & P 500: 6,612
Gains:
Silver: 192%
Gold: 167%
S & P: 62%
Bitcoin: 18%
i am thinking the war continues...very strong possibility of rates would need to be cut after inflation kicks in........so that would make precious metals drop
I think you meant a rate rise to combat inflation. That wouldn’t be good for metals or stocks.
brain not working.... i did not put in not need a cut... because the inflation caused by oil going up will be bad for precious metals if they raise it
- What happens to gold? Gold has morphed from safe haven to pro-cyclical asset as lots of retail investors crowded into it and other precious metals in the second half of last year. This means that past correlations no longer hold and gold now has a positive beta to the S&P 500. Hints of that were in yesterday’s price action, when gold inched higher after falling substantially in previous weeks during war uncertainty. Gold should resume its rise now that war is ending.
Gold will be fine. It had become "risk on" and silver even more so. But that big run up in Dec & Jan just brought out the tourists. They jumped on and started jumping off end of January. Needs further time to consolidate.
US trade imbalance plummeted 55%. Tariffs are a significant reason. Likely metals and gold specifically are reacting.
note: a good way to take industrial stocks.... like for defense , manufacturing.... take both if you want railroads in XLI
. XLI +11% exp ratio .08%
ticker: MADE +15.9% exp ratio .40%
manufacturing : is 14th in the world right now.....better than china.... US with a manufacturing PMI of 52.3 and getting better
. XLI +11% exp ratio .08%
ticker: MADE +15.9% exp ratio .40%
manufacturing : is 14th in the world right now.....better than china.... US with a manufacturing PMI of 52.3 and getting better
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Many industrials are getting upgraded due to AI.
Yes, this link is from an AI produced channel, but it is good for silver information. We are getting a better idea of why the silver market crashed in late January. The Vizsla incident, which I've talked about here a few times, was basically completely ignored by the US MSM. I had been looking at the company but not only did the MSM ignore, the company itself was not upfront with what was going on. And with the Nancy Guthrie kidnapping grabbing all the headlines, one can see how a Canadian company having workers kidnapped in Mexico was overlooked. But the other part, which I didn't know, was Fresnillo, the biggest silver producer in the world, issued revised downward guidance for 2026 in their late January call. The market got it wrong; the jurisdictional dangers which Vizsla brought to light, along with Fresnillo's downward guidance will just mean a supply deficit will only get worse....which will further drive up the price.
The United States is, without question, the world's largest oil producer -- 13.6 million barrels per day as of 2025, a record high driven largely by efficiency gains in the Permian Basin. Impressive. But the Strait of Hormuz carries 20 million barrels per day through a waterway just 21 miles wide at its narrowest point. That is not a rounding error. That's a 6.4-million-barrel-per-day gap before we have even accounted for the fact that America itself consumes 20.4 million barrels per day. Read that again. The U.S. produces less oil than it consumes.
The countries that would suffer most from a Hormuz closure are not the ones people typically think about in this debate. Europe, Japan, South Korea, India, and China are the primary recipients of Persian Gulf oil. A long-term Hormuz closure would send oil prices to levels not seen in modern history -- some analysts suggest several hundred dollars per barrel in a prolonged scenario -- triggering recessions, supply chain collapses, and humanitarian crises across multiple continents simultaneously. The numbers here are not ambiguous. U.S. production: 13.6 million barrels per day. Hormuz flow: 20 million barrels per day. U.S. net exportable surplus: roughly 2.8 million barrels per day.
VP JD Vance just confirmed what all who paid attention knew: not only did they never get close to a ceasefire agreement, but the US and Iran are miles apart OIL FUTURES ARE LYING: THE $40 GAP THAT BLOWS UP EVERYTHING on April 21 as futures reflect real price
Iran has less power each day (literally and figuratively). We destroyed many of their buried bunker missiles in the rocks on the coast of the SoH. We just sent two Naval ships thru. It was basically Trump saying to Iran "FY, we will send our destroyers thru and you can't stop us". More troops going to area for a major attack the second the cease fire over. I don't think he's bluffing. Iran will BACO (Batshit crazy always chickens out)
The GBU-72 bombs are pretty impressive. 5000 pounds that can penetrate quite a distance of concrete. They've taken out many of the missiles in the Strait that Iran had been using as intimidation. Listening to Vance, both sides still far apart. I suspect any Iranian attack on any tanker in the Strait will cause a major US attack on an Iran power plant. They've been warned; no remorse if that happens.
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Those ships did not go through, iran told them to turn around and they did.
China, the world's largest exporter of sulfuric acid, has announced a halt to its sulfuric acid exports beginning in May, potentially lasting the full year. Sulfuric acid is essential for leaching metals such as copper, uranium, nickel, zinc, and cobalt from ores, as well as for fertilizer production. Would that make Suncor Energy a buy(SU)