NFL 2025-26

The Caleb Williams-Bears story that seeped out at the end of last week was interesting. He'll have to grow up fast, they have done everything for him. He may be a Jay Cutler 2.0, hope not.
I think it would’ve been a much bigger story if it came out a year ago. He signed fairly quickly, and the Bears made two key fires (Waldron & Eberflus) for his benefit. Then they sign 3 O-lineman and add more O-weapons in the draft, to his benefit, and to the detriment of the defense. I still can’t believe they didn’t address the pass rush in the draft.
 
They are definitely building the offense for success. I expect much better offensive production from Williams especially with Johnson calling the plays. Can’t blame the Bears since you want your # 1 overall pick to succeed.
 
so according to previous NFL deductions, expect more injuries ...

New spot for touchbacksThe 2025 modification made permanent the dynamic kickoff and changed the spotting of the football to the 35-yard line. ESPN's Kevin Seifert noted there is a substantial projected increase in the number of kickoff returns under this rule.
 
Made my first player prop play for 2025;

Jeanty over 1050.5 rush yards. Scout comps? Barkley and LaDanian Tomlinson. Crazy after contact numbers at Boise. If he doesn't get hurt, he demolishes this.
 
Made my first player prop play for 2025;

Jeanty over 1050.5 rush yards. Scout comps? Barkley and LaDanian Tomlinson. Crazy after contact numbers at Boise. If he doesn't get hurt, he demolishes this.
I like this play a lot, the kid's a work horse type back despite his smallish size, and Carroll loves to run the ball, even when he had Wilson the Hawks were always a run first offense. As with any Overs, injury would be my only concern, if you tell me he plays all 17, it's hard to see how he doesn't reach this number
 
How exciting is the NFC North going to be this year??!

As a Vikes fan, I've grown up loving to hate the Pack, Lions, and Bears, yet it's impossible not to acknowledge how three of the 4 teams may be amongst the league's top 10(ish) and the Bears, as gross as it is to admit, are a team that could be on the cusp of playing in some of the most entertaining games week to week.

Season can not come soon enough...
 
Never heard the Saints mentioned with Rodgers. Might as well all out tank for Arch next year.
 
Maybe bumps a bit and then go under?
I played Under 8.5 -140 about a week ago. I figured that win total was with Rodgers at QB, I thought maybe the juice moves a little, but I didn't think it would go to 9. But I also thought there was a chance he wouldn't sign with them and remain a FA in hopes that a team's QB goes down during the season, in that case the win total would have dropped bigly, no way they're using 8.5 with a QB room of Mason Rudolph and Skylar Thompson, and my bet would have had really nice value. Ideally he wouldn't have signed with Pittsburgh, but my play was with the thought that he would.

I have four outs and just checked them, two of them took it off the board, the other two are using the same 8.5 with the same juice. If any of them go 9 then I made a mistake, but it's my opinion that the 8.5's that have been available were assuming Rodgers was their QB
 
I played Under 8.5 -140 about a week ago. I figured that win total was with Rodgers at QB, I thought maybe the juice moves a little, but I didn't think it would go to 9. But I also thought there was a chance he wouldn't sign with them and remain a FA in hopes that a team's QB goes down during the season, in that case the win total would have dropped bigly, no way they're using 8.5 with a QB room of Mason Rudolph and Skylar Thompson, and my bet would have had really nice value. Ideally he wouldn't have signed with Pittsburgh, but my play was with the thought that he would.

I have four outs and just checked them, two of them took it off the board, the other two are using the same 8.5 with the same juice. If any of them go 9 then I made a mistake, but it's my opinion that the 8.5's that have been available were assuming Rodgers was their QB

Logically its hard to imagine a posted number of 8 1/2 with Rudolph and Thompson, but EVERYONE on the planet knows Tomlin's streak. Can't help but wonder if that played a role.
 
I took a flyer on Caleb Williams over 4,000 yards at +275.

Burden will help the offense assuming he gets over this 'soft tissue' issue in camp.
 
SBR Week 1 AI simulations


Week 1 predictions & scores
Eagles 34, Cowboys 31
Chiefs 30, Chargers 27
Dolphins 26, Colts 24
Patriots 24, Raiders 17
Steelers 23, Jets 13
Browns 23, Bengals 20
Jaguars 27, Panthers 17
Commanders 30, Giants 20
Buccaneers 24, Falcons 20
Saints 26, Cardinals 21
Broncos 24, Titans 23
49ers 27, Seahawks 24
Rams 27, Texans 24
Lions 28, Packers 24
Bills 30, Ravens 26
Bears 26, Vikings 20
 
Some crazy stuff in the Chat GPR predictions. Browns winning 11 games? Steelers 14-3? KC 16-1?? The NFC North, the best division in the NFL a year ago with 3 teams w double digit losses and nobody with 11 wins?
 
Some crazy stuff in the Chat GPR predictions. Browns winning 11 games? Steelers 14-3? KC 16-1?? The NFC North, the best division in the NFL a year ago with 3 teams w double digit losses and nobody with 11 wins?



i thought the same thing.... and i knew that fastball was going to get hit by you....right over the wall LOL
 
Plenty of documented reasons to bet the Lions and Eagles season totals under; scheduling, records in one possession games, loss of coordinators ... and overs starting with the Jaguars ...
 
Latest NFL mugshot ...


Cowboys All-Pro KaVontae Turpin’s drug and weapon arrest

KaVontae Turpin’s arrest on misdemeanor drug and weapon charges over the weekend came after he allegedly drove nearly 100 miles per hour with a gun and marijuana in his car.

Turpin was taken to jail on the two misdemeanor counts — possession of marijuana less than two ounces and unlawful carrying of a weapon.

The 28-year-old is coming off his best season as a pro in which he received All-Pro honors as a return specialist.

 
Plenty of documented reasons to bet the Lions and Eagles season totals under; scheduling, records in one possession games, loss of coordinators ... and overs starting with the Jaguars ...

What's keeping me off a Lions under is the fact that they, not the Eagles or Chiefs, were the best team in the team in the NFL for much of last season. The poor performance in the playoffs vs Washington was 100% about the defense being completely decimated by injuries.

And I'm not sure I'm on a Philly under. Not on their over, but my strongest NFC East opinion is being bearish on Washington. Washington has so many reasons to fade, its almost a joke.
 
Who is their kicker?

They Just Drafted This Guy Back in April.


Tyler Loop

K Arizona
5-11 191 LBS



2024: Honorable Mention All-Big 12 Conference. Set school records with a 62-yard FG and 83.8 percent of field-goal attempts made during his career. Played in all 12 games (23-25-92.0 XP: 18-23-78.3 FG, 6-9 50-plus yards, long 62; 77 points; 53 touchbacks on 56 kickoffs).
 
What is the oldest NFL team?


The Arizona Cardinals are the oldest NFL team, established in 1898 as the Morgan Athletic Club in Chicago. They were one of the founding members of the NFL in 1920, originally known as the Racine Cardinals.


Oldest NFL teams and the years they became active:

Arizona Cardinals (1920)
Chicago Bears (1920)
Green Bay Packers (1921)
New York Giants (1925)
 
I see the Bears extended Poles. Why? OK, I like the trade he made to get DJ Moore along with getting the first pick in the draft. But, this is also a GM who traded a 2nd round pick to Pittsburgh to get Chase Claypool. This is a guy who prioritized skill position players a year ago, while the O line was terrible. He let Darnell Mooney walk and signed an aging Keenan Allen. Mooney ended up with 992 receiving yards and 9.3 yds/target. Allen finished with 744 receiving yards and 6.3 yds/target. I can hear the McCaskey's shouting "but he told us to hire Ben Johnson". Guess what, anyone on this forum could've told them to sign Ben Johnson. I don't think you reward the GM for making such an easy pick.
 
A few props I'm playing:

DeVonte Adams Under 1000 1/2 receiving yards. 32 going on 33. Only 7.0 yards/target combined in 2023-2024. I realize Stafford is still good but I'm not a fan of WRs in their first year going to a new team.

Ricky Piersall Over 750 1/2 receiving yards. Last year's # 1 pick should see his target number increase significantly, with Deebo now gone. That is assuming he doesn't get shot again.

Justin Fields Over 5 1/2 rushing TDs. I took the TDs instead of the rush yards as we've seen Fields run less and less since his giant 2022 season. But he's still capable, when he needs to. And at 230 lbs with 4.4 speed, they don't even need to do the Tush Push.

Caleb Williams Under 425 1/2 rush yards. I can't imagine Ben Johnson wanting him to run much.
 
I felt the worst player taken in the first round was Shemar Stewart, by the Bengals. Guess who is the only unsigned first round pick? 4.5 sacks in 3 years will not help at contract negotiations. And drafting a complete project like this, despite a great passing game, tells me the Bengals are not serious about winning.
 
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