NFL Preseason Discussion

If anybody is interested DK is hanging LAC at +1 I think they have the odds switched because they have them -125 on the ML. I think it's a strong play here just because the +1 has so much value in preseason.
 
If anybody has any good insights it would be much appreciated I think NFL preseason is very beatable. Coaches aren't hiding anything.
 

Heim

EOG Master
JAX side is one of the most heavily bet WK1 NFLX I can remember seeing.

Meyer to create winning environment pronto? Is Lawrence even playing?
 

pro analyser

EOG Dedicated
Preseason record 0-0 Have 3 plays I really like a lot, I will rate them for 1.5 units. Atlanta +1, Det +2 Jack -1'(these go Aug13 and 14)
 

pro analyser

EOG Dedicated
Note 3 not as valuable in preseason as teams avoid overtime,and go for win late. Many teams also practice going for two more,thus 1 and 2 more valuable then reg season.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
And +1 figures to be far more valuable in Week 1 of the preseason when scoring totals are low, low, low.
 
"Under head coach John Harbaugh, the Ravens are 37-12 (.755) straight up in the preseason.

The last time they lost a game? September 3, 2015.

That’s right: The Ravens are currently in the midst of a 17-game preseason winning streak.

Overall, a $100 bettor betting Ravens preseason games since Harbaugh took over would be up $2,161 in just 49 games, for a stupid ridiculous 44.1% return on investment (ROI).

...If moneylines were never your thing, don’t fear: You would have raked in nearly as much preseason shmoney betting the Ravens against the spread (ATS). Under Harbaugh, Baltimore is 33-15-1 (.688) in the preseason. A $100 bettor betting the Ravens ATS in each of their 49 preseason games under Harbaugh would be up $1,622, a 33.1% ROI.

Best of all? Many of these games weren’t even a sweat, as the Ravens beat the spread by a whopping 6.18 points per game on average.

 
Maybe I cant see the forest for the trees.... but how is Minny only at 2.5? With the Broncos in the midst of a QB battle both Drew and Teddy are going to play extended minutes. Whats Kirk going to play? Maybe 1 series? Then they give the ball to rookie Kellen Mond and then a bunch of no names. This one almost looks too easy.
 
Maybe I cant see the forest for the trees.... but how is Minny only at 2.5? With the Broncos in the midst of a QB battle both Drew and Teddy are going to play extended minutes. Whats Kirk going to play? Maybe 1 series? Then they give the ball to rookie Kellen Mond and then a bunch of no names. This one almost looks too easy.
Zimmer 20-5 preseason although I like your take.
 

Heim

EOG Master
I don't know the exact ATS figure. But teams that have a game under their belt have
done very well the last L10 years versus the spread.
 
Maybe I cant see the forest for the trees.... but how is Minny only at 2.5? With the Broncos in the midst of a QB battle both Drew and Teddy are going to play extended minutes. Whats Kirk going to play? Maybe 1 series? Then they give the ball to rookie Kellen Mond and then a bunch of no names. This one almost looks too easy.

Yep and sure to give Colorado bettors some nice bonus promos. Can probably get to a pretty decent position.
 
Maybe I cant see the forest for the trees.... but how is Minny only at 2.5? With the Broncos in the midst of a QB battle both Drew and Teddy are going to play extended minutes. Whats Kirk going to play? Maybe 1 series? Then they give the ball to rookie Kellen Mond and then a bunch of no names. This one almost looks too easy.
Kellen Mond has been ruled OUT. This means Jake Browning, Nate Stanley and Danny Etling will play the majority of the game.
 

Vikings Starters to See 'Minimal' Playing Time in Preseason Opener vs. Broncos​

It'll be a lot of Jake Browning at quarterback for the Vikings on Saturday at U.S. Bank Stadium.
WILL RAGATZ7 HOURS AGO
Despite the Vikings only having three preseason games this season compared to the usual four, don't expect Mike Zimmer to play his starters any more during Saturday's preseason game against the Denver Broncos than he would in a typical August opener.
The starters will see "minimal" playing time — likely no more than one or two series — according to the Star Tribune's Ben Goessling.

It'll be good for Kirk Cousins and company to get some game action for the first time this year, but it won't be much.
So who is likely to play, and play a lot, on Saturday? We can make some educated guesses based on recent comments from Zimmer.
Cousins and the starting offense will get a series or two. Christian Darrisaw obviously won't be included in that unit, as he just had a second procedure on his lingering groin injury. Justin Jefferson almost certainly will not play; he hasn't practiced since injuring his shoulder a week ago. Dalvin Cook may or may not get some action.
"Two years ago we had a preseason game and we played Arizona and I didn’t even know I was gonna play in the game and [Zimmer] came to me before the game," Cook said this week. "I was just doing my natural warm up and going through my warm up and he asked me if I want to play and I was like yeah I want to play. I was ready to play. I’m going to be ready to play whenever he calls my number. I’m in shape to carry the football so whenever he call my number we’re going to be ready. If it’s Saturday, whenever it is, I’ll be ready to play."
In that game, the third of four in the 2019 preseason, Cook had exactly two carries, one of which was an 85-yard touchdown run.
It'll be a lot of second and third-string players on offense, but rookie QB Kellen Mond won't be among them, Zimmer said this week. Mond just returned from the Reserve/COVID list earlier this week. I'd expect Jake Browning to get the lion's share of the work at quarterback, with Nate Stanley and/or Danny Etling potentially getting mixed in during the second half. Stanley's health is a question mark, though, after he missed both joint practices with Denver.
Other players to watch on offense include Rashod Hill, Oli Udoh, and the rest of the offensive line, K.J. Osborn, Ihmir Smith-Marsette, Kene Nwangwu, and a variety of other young players fighting for roster spots.
Defensively, the story is the same. The veteran-heavy starting defense won't see much time. Danielle Hunter did say this week that he thinks it's important to get some reps in the preseason, to "go out there and have a feel for what it’s like again," while still being smart about saving himself for the games that count.
I'd expect the starters on both sides to play a decent amount in the second preseason game, next Saturday night against the Colts in Minneapolis. Usually, the third game sees the starters play the most, while the final game is mostly guys on the roster bubble, so it'll be interesting to see how things shake out with one fewer game. The Vikings' final game of this preseason is Friday, August 27th, in Kansas City.
Some young defensive players to watch against the Broncos include D.J. Wonnum, Patrick Jones II, Armon Watts, James Lynch, Chazz Surratt, Camryn Bynum, Myles Dorn, and Harrison Hand.
Greg Joseph will get all of the reps at kicker against the Broncos, Zimmer said.
 
ENGLEWOOD, Colo. -- With the quarterback competition still "even-steven," Denver Broncos coach Vic Fangio said Tuesday that Drew Lock will start Saturday's preseason opener against the Minnesota Vikings.

Teddy Bridgewater will start the second preseason game, an Aug. 21 road contest against the Seattle Seahawks. Fangio has consistently said through the opening two weeks of training camp that he would likely give each quarterback one preseason start.

After Tuesday's abbreviated practice before heading to Minneapolis, Fangio said Lock will start against the Vikings for "the same reason that we gave him the first team snap of the first practice." When the Broncos opened training camp July 27, Fangio said Lock would take the first snap because "he was here. He's been here. He's got more seniority with the Broncos, I guess. It's really no big deal."

The Broncos close out the preseason Aug. 28 against the Los Angeles Rams. Fangio has said no decision has been made on who would start that game in either scenario -- if he has made a decision on the regular-season starter or if the competition is ongoing.

EDITOR'S PICKS​

Fangio said after Tuesday's practice that he didn't know exactly how many snaps each quarterback would play against the Vikings.

"You have a hope, but what happens in these preseason games, sometimes you go out there and get a couple three-and-outs and the other team's driving it on you, so you can't go by quarters and series and stuff," Fangio said. "You've got to try to go by plays as best you can, because it can get skewed one way or the other ... so we'll keep a running tab during the game."

As he has in practice, when Lock and Bridgewater have split snaps with the starters equally, Fangio said he would make sure each quarterback played with starters or, at minimum, players who are "in the hunt" to start to make the evaluations more even.

"We've got four tackles that are competing, so they'll be in there with two of those four," Fangio said. "Same thing with the guards. It may not be what you view as the exact No. 1s, but we're confident with the guys we'll have in there."

In addition to Saturday's game, Denver and Minnesota will hold joint practices Wednesday and Thursday at the Vikings' facility in suburban Minneapolis.

Lock and Bridgewater have each had moments in camp when they looked to be nudging ahead of the other, but both have also committed an ill-timed turnover in an 11-on-11 period or had a balky practice period to even it up again. In general, Lock has had more big plays in the workouts, while the offense has played with fewer penalties and a better tempo with Bridgewater in the lineup.

Fangio maintained that he doesn't view the lack of a clear starter as an issue that would carry over into the regular season.

"I have confidence in both those guys,'' Fangio said. "I really do. ... There is no grading scale. Ultimately we have to go by what we see. We're keeping track of things, statistically -- some more detailed stats than what you guys will do. They'll be there for the information."

The Broncos threw the quarterback job open for competition for the third time in the past six training camps because Lock tied for the league lead in interceptions last season and finished last among starters in completion percentage. The Broncos were also last in the NFL in giveaways and had the league's worst turnover margin.
 
Sherwood (0-0 YTD NFL, 4-1 CFL) is on:


Seattle +131 over LAS VEGAS

9:00 PM EST. Preseason NFL has little to do with the X's and O's or the personnel on the field, instead it has almost everything to do with the coaches. Some of these guys will patrol the sidelines in Week 1 of the preseason like it's the goddamn Super Bowl. Enter Jon Gruden.

In his career, Gruden has been the poster boy for Jonny Try Hards in the preseason. Dude cannot help himself and has racked up a 36-18 record in two stints with the Raiders. Since his high profile comeback, Gruden is 6-2, posting back to back 3-1 records in 2018, 2019. The only reason "Chucky" wasn't able to pad those stats last year is because COVID wiped out the exhibition season. The market perception is that Gruden plays to win these games. However, it appears as though "Chucky" might be taking a different approach here in 2021. The Raiders will not dress Derek Carr tonight, but will instead go with Nate Peterman and Chase Cookus at the pivot position. Perhaps Gruden has figured out it's the games in September that count.

The Seahawks are led by Pete Carroll, who at one time was also known for his preseason prowess and to be honest, other than an 0-4 run in 2018, that reputation should still be intact. Carroll posted a 3-1 mark in 2019, and has three 4-0 marks in his decade in Seattle. Carroll is 25-15 overall and has to be worthy of consideration here. Most important is market perception that the Raiders will want to make an impression in Vegas tonight, as fans flock to this second year venue for the first time. That type of thinking has Seattle taking back a price they shouldn't be. Pete Carroll always wants to win and he'll do whatever it takes to rack up another W. That's worth a wager to be sure.




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Sherwood's historical NFL records:

[TABLE]

Season

Record


2004

49-35-3 (+26.00)


2005

51-50-0 (+4.00)


2006

46-44-0 (+11.00)


2007

44-51-1 (-16.00)


2008

47-37-3 (+24.00)


2009

38-37-3 (+6.00)


2010

51-41-0 (+22.00)


2011

48-51-4 (-3.00)


2012

46-44-0 (+2.00)


2013

47-46-0 (+5.00)


2014

59-66-0 (-17.00)


2015

41-64-0 (-45.00)


2016

45-73-0 (-51.00)


2017

56-55-0 (+19.00)


2018

81-57-0 (+64.00)


2019

65-59-0 (+16.00)


2020

55-62-0 (-14.00)

[/TABLE]


Overall +52 units.




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Info FYI & consideration.
Someone's opinion, FYI & consideration.
Fade or follow or neither. Your choice, your responsibility. BOL.


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"I don't advise to fade or follow anything. I report & track to let you decide."

 
Browning done for the day. Kellen Mond now playing for the Viks , down 23-3, with 11 minutes to go in Q2.
Yeah Mond was not supposed to play but I guess Zim had a change of heart. He's so behind from missing all those days it's actually beneficial for Bronco backers.
 
Maybe I cant see the forest for the trees.... but how is Minny only at 2.5? With the Broncos in the midst of a QB battle both Drew and Teddy are going to play extended minutes. Whats Kirk going to play? Maybe 1 series? Then they give the ball to rookie Kellen Mond and then a bunch of no names. This one almost looks too easy.

Someone said on Broncos radio they mentioned that about the top 30 players on the Vikings did not play today. Pretty much handed the Broncos an easy win.
 
Maybe I cant see the forest for the trees.... but how is Minny only at 2.5? With the Broncos in the midst of a QB battle both Drew and Teddy are going to play extended minutes. Whats Kirk going to play? Maybe 1 series? Then they give the ball to rookie Kellen Mond and then a bunch of no names. This one almost looks too easy.
Nice hit.
 

Heim

EOG Master
All the #1 drafted Qbs looked as good as advertised. Even GB Love from last year.

Then I remember how good Trubisky looked in his Bear debut. 😄
 
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