NFL Week 10 discussion

kane

kane

EOG master
The bad spot of the week belongs to the Raiders, playing an entire OT and having to travel on a short week, it's the only thing keeping me off them, Broncos laying 9 is high to me, they don't have the offense to win by margin, I'm sure the bad spot for LV is baked into the line. Tough looking board this week, some nice Wong options
 
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kane said:
The bad spot of the week belongs to the Raiders, playing an entire OT and having to travel on a short week, it's the only thing keeping me off them, Broncos laying 9 is high to me, they don't have the offense to win by margin, I'm sure the bad spot for LV is baked into the line. Tough looking board this week, some nice Wong options
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Broncos just hung 33 on the Giants and 44 on the Cowboys. Yeah they "only" put up 18 vs. Houston but that’s not a red flag nobody scores on the Texans. They’re holding teams to a league low 14.7 PPG. Here’s EVERY opponent they’ve suffocated through Week 9:
Week 1 @ Rams: 14
Week 2 vs Bucs: 20
Week 3 @ 49ers: 15
Week 4 vs Titans: 0
Week 5 @ Ravens: 10
Week 6 bye
Week 7 @ Seahawks: 27 on the box… but
Seattle’s 27 is a little fluky 7 free points Texans D scooped a fumble for a TD.
13 points off turnovers Two FGs + one TD, all starting inside Houston’s 39.
Seattle’s offense? One 4-play drive for 7 points. That’s it.
Give the Seahawks normal field position and zero gifts? 7 points max. Fits right in with the 0-20 everyone else managed.
Week 8 vs Jaguars: 17
Week 9 vs Broncos: 18
I knew Houston was a bad matchup for the Broncos, but that 18 is actually pretty good. I'm not worried about the offense at all right now.
 
I know the Broncos have had a relatively easy schedule so far, but this is the fourth game where they haven't allowed the opponent to score a single touchdown. That's pretty wild. Who do you think has the best defense in the NFL Houston or Denver?
 
I'd have to say Houston, although I think we also need to give credit where it is due to the Rams as well when it comes to overall defense
 
kane said:
The bad spot of the week belongs to the Raiders, playing an entire OT and having to travel on a short week, it's the only thing keeping me off them, Broncos laying 9 is high to me, they don't have the offense to win by margin, I'm sure the bad spot for LV is baked into the line. Tough looking board this week, some nice Wong options
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Agree that is a bad spot, but also Jacksonville in a bad spot as well, having to play that extra full quarter, get a one point win on the road in the Pacific time zone, then must hit the road next week to Houston. We will see if Stroud is able to go.
 
NowshesmyRuca said:
I know the Broncos have had a relatively easy schedule so far, but this is the fourth game where they haven't allowed the opponent to score a single touchdown. That's pretty wild. Who do you think has the best defense in the NFL Houston or Denver?
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Yardage wise, its 1) Houston 2) Cleveland 3) Denver
Points allowed, its 1) Houston 2) LA Rams 3) Kansas City
Opponent yards/play: 1) Denver 2) Green Bay 3) tie between Houston, Seattle and the Rams.

As for QBs faced:

Denver: C Ward, D Jones, Herbert, Browning, Hurts, Fields, Dart, Prescott, and Stroud/Mills
Houston: Stafford, Mayfield, Lawrence, Ward, Rush, Darnold, M Jones and Nix

Sagarin has the overall SOS for Houston at 4 with Denver at 30.
 
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The Germany game is in an open air stadium. So we have two domed teams playing outdoors. Game script wise, one would think the Falcons would try to get Bijan Robinson involved more; only 35 runs for him total in last 3 games.

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I have no idea what's going on in the Jets/Browns game, the Browns have gone from +2 to -2.5, it can't be anything to do with Fields, no way he's worth that many points, maybe Fields and Taylor both out, all I can think of
 
I played the Falcons +6.5, I can't get to this number, last week the Falcons were at NE getting 5.5, getting 6.5 on a neutral means if the game was in Indy the Colts would be 8, I don't see a 2.5 point gap between Colts and Pats
 
The Patriots may be a bit dressed up at 7-2. Before the win over Atlanta, the previous 3 games were against Cleveland, Tennessee and New Orleans. They did beat Buffalo, then the other two wins over Carolina and Miami. And here's the QBs faced:

week 1: Geno
week 2: Tua
week 3: Rodgers
week 4: Bryce Young
week 5: Allen
week 6: Rattler
week 7: Cam Ward
week 8: Gabriel
week 9: Penix
 
Valuist said:
The Patriots may be a bit dressed up at 7-2. Before the win over Atlanta, the previous 3 games were against Cleveland, Tennessee and New Orleans. They did beat Buffalo, then the other two wins over Carolina and Miami. And here's the QBs faced:

week 1: Geno
week 2: Tua
week 3: Rodgers
week 4: Bryce Young
week 5: Allen
week 6: Rattler
week 7: Cam Ward
week 8: Gabriel
week 9: Penix
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my guy, good data
 
Maye has been great throwing the ball, but the one weakness he's had is he's taken way too many sacks. Obviously not all on him, but here's what they've allowed:

vs Atlanta 6 sacks allowed
vs Cleveland 6 sacks allowed
vs Tennessee 4 sacks allowed
vs New Orleans 1 sack allowed
vs Buffalo 4 sacks allowed
vs Carolina 1 sack allowed
vs Pittsburgh 5 sacks allowed
vs Miami 3 sacks allowed
vs Las Vegas 4 sacks allowed

OK, they were able to hold the pass rushes of New Orleans and Carolina in check. Everyone else created havoc.

So what has Tampa done recently? 15 sacks in their L3 games.
 
Not one I'm playing but just heard the Panthers are 0-10 ATS the last ten tines they've been favored
 
I played the Jags in a tease on the assumption Stroud would be out, I expect by kick off Jax to be favored and my +7 will have some value. I paired them with the Jets +8.5, I know they just traded their two best defensive players, but to go from -2 to +2.5 seems like an over adjustment, I don't know the last time the Browns won on the road by 9, if they do I'll give them a tip of the cap and move on
 
kane said:
Not one I'm playing but just heard the Panthers are 0-10 ATS the last ten tines they've been favored
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A little context here; in the past 2 1/2 seasons, they've only been favored twice. They DID cover this season as a 1 pt favorite over the Jets, and last year lost outright to Dallas. Anything else is the 2022 season or earlier.
 
Latest Chicago weather, wind and rain expected after game. may not be a factor. If the weather moves in earlier, then the under looks good.
 
Baltimore is fully healthy and Minny coming off a divisional upset....

I thought this would open 6...

On another note, I wish I was quick enough to get Eagles +3 😭
 
kane said:
I played the Falcons +6.5, I can't get to this number, last week the Falcons were at NE getting 5.5, getting 6.5 on a neutral means if the game was in Indy the Colts would be 8, I don't see a 2.5 point gap between Colts and Pats
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I think Bijan Robinson could go off for a big game. Coaching staff had to be getting questioned why they abandoned the running game L3 weeks, and with DeForest Buckner out, that's a big loss for the Colts.
 
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