NFL Week 14 Discussion

kane

kane

EOG master
Rather than type it all again, this is what I posted in Dell's thread yesterday

Cowboys/Lions is a fascinating matchup between two teams heading in opposite directions. The Cowboys stock is as high as it's been all year, while the Lions stock is as low as it's been all year. I have a feeling no one will want any part of Detroit and the bettors will be betting Dallas with both fists. The Cowboys are coming off back to back home wins against the two SB teams from last year, the Lions are coming off an ugly loss to Philly, an ugly win against the Giants in OT, and the loss on Thanksgiving to the Packers. But rather than using recency bias to cap the game, if you look at the season on the whole, the Cowboys have a scoring differential of +9, whereas the Lions are a +76. Dallas averages 29.3 PPG on 393 yards per game, Detroit averages 29.2 PPG on 376 yards per game. Defensively Dallas allows 28.5 PPG and 376 yards per game, Detroit allows 22.8 PPG and 316 yards per game. The Lions have a better PPG differential as well as a YPG differential. The Lions average the 5th most rushing yards per game, and Dallas has given up the 8th most rushing yards in the league, the addition of Quinnen Williams helps, but overall it's still a defense that can be run on, and one way to control an explosive offense like Dallas is to play keep away, run it and control the clock. Like I said, this is a game where no one will want any part of the Lions and will eagerly take the points with Dallas. I think this might be a good time to sell high on the Cowboys and buy low on the Lions. Also, you know Campbell won't change his coaching style, he'll still be aggressive and go for in on fourth down, I think the Lions are 0 for their last 7 fourth down attempts, so the law of averages say their due to make a couple of them. Anyone familiar with me knows I'm a dog player who rarely plays a chalk, but this might be a good to lay it. Not everyone is putting the game out, the ones that are have Detroit a juiced 3, I hope Dallas money comes in knocks it to under a FG, if so I'm liking the Lions, even at 3 I think they're still a good play
 
kane said:
Rather than type it all again, this is what I posted in Dell's thread yesterday

Cowboys/Lions is a fascinating matchup between two teams heading in opposite directions. The Cowboys stock is as high as it's been all year, while the Lions stock is as low as it's been all year. I have a feeling no one will want any part of Detroit and the bettors will be betting Dallas with both fists. The Cowboys are coming off back to back home wins against the two SB teams from last year, the Lions are coming off an ugly loss to Philly, an ugly win against the Giants in OT, and the loss on Thanksgiving to the Packers. But rather than using recency bias to cap the game, if you look at the season on the whole, the Cowboys have a scoring differential of +9, whereas the Lions are a +76. Dallas averages 29.3 PPG on 393 yards per game, Detroit averages 29.2 PPG on 376 yards per game. Defensively Dallas allows 28.5 PPG and 376 yards per game, Detroit allows 22.8 PPG and 316 yards per game. The Lions have a better PPG differential as well as a YPG differential. The Lions average the 5th most rushing yards per game, and Dallas has given up the 8th most rushing yards in the league, the addition of Quinnen Williams helps, but overall it's still a defense that can be run on, and one way to control an explosive offense like Dallas is to play keep away, run it and control the clock. Like I said, this is a game where no one will want any part of the Lions and will eagerly take the points with Dallas. I think this might be a good time to sell high on the Cowboys and buy low on the Lions. Also, you know Campbell won't change his coaching style, he'll still be aggressive and go for in on fourth down, I think the Lions are 0 for their last 7 fourth down attempts, so the law of averages say their due to make a couple of them. Anyone familiar with me knows I'm a dog player who rarely plays a chalk, but this might be a good to lay it. Not everyone is putting the game out, the ones that are have Detroit a juiced 3, I hope Dallas money comes in knocks it to under a FG, if so I'm liking the Lions, even at 3 I think they're still a good play
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Closer look re: that point differential, both teams exactly +27 based on last 8 games. Both teams also beat Washington by the exact 44-22 score.

Detroit allowed 85 yards or less rushing in 4 of first 5, but has allowed 120 or more rush yards in 4 of their last 5. Dallas has run for over 100 yards in all but 1 game. Javonte props have to be in play.

Dallas allowed 30 or more points 5 of their first 8 games. Under 30 allowed in all 4 of their most recent games. Dak under 100 QB rating in each of first 3 games of the season, but over 100 in 7 of last 9.

Since Dallas has acquired Quinton Williams at the deadline, they have taken heavy action in all three games.
 
I played the Steelers/Raven Under 45.5 on the opener, I think it's good to 44. The Steelers offense isn't very good, Rodgers has no mobility and is playing hurt and Rudolph isn't a starting QB. Lamar isn't right, he hasn't been healthy all year, he came back a few weeks ago because the Ravens season was on the line, they needed to start winning games, his main weapon is his legs, he's at his best when he's running, but in the five games he's played since coming back from injury he's rushed for a total of 98 yards, which is 20 yards a game, in contrast, the four games he played before getting hurt he rushed for an average of 42 yards a game, twice as much. If the defense knows his running will be limited, it makes him much easier to defend. After getting off to a bad start defensively, the Ravens defense has been playing very well, the first five games of the season they gave up an average of 35 PPG, the last seven games they're allowing just 16 PPG. Both teams are tied for first in the division at 6-6, this is a huge game for both and a big rivalry, so I expect a tight game plan between two coaches who know each other very well. The last ten times these teams have met, the average total points scored in the game has been 34, and only once have they gone over 42 points. This series has always been close and low scoring, I expect the same this time. Also, I don't know what the weather will be like, but obviously any type of bad weather only helps the under
 
kane said:
I played the Steelers/Raven Under 45.5 on the opener, I think it's good to 44. The Steelers offense isn't very good, Rodgers has no mobility and is playing hurt and Rudolph isn't a starting QB. Lamar isn't right, he hasn't been healthy all year, he came back a few weeks ago because the Ravens season was on the line, they needed to start winning games, his main weapon is his legs, he's at his best when he's running, but in the five games he's played since coming back from injury he's rushed for a total of 98 yards, which is 20 yards a game, in contrast, the four games he played before getting hurt he rushed for an average of 42 yards a game, twice as much. If the defense knows his running will be limited, it makes him much easier to defend. After getting off to a bad start defensively, the Ravens defense has been playing very well, the first five games of the season they gave up an average of 35 PPG, the last seven games they're allowing just 16 PPG. Both teams are tied for first in the division at 6-6, this is a huge game for both and a big rivalry, so I expect a tight game plan between two coaches who know each other very well. The last ten times these teams have met, the average total points scored in the game has been 34, and only once have they gone over 42 points. This series has always been close and low scoring, I expect the same this time. Also, I don't know what the weather will be like, but obviously any type of bad weather only helps the under
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Absolutely. Feels like a 19-16 game.
 
I haven't played them yet, but I'll be on Arizona. I would have liked the play better had the Rams won last week, but it's still a game I'm playing. The Cardinals are 3-9 but profile more like a 5-7 team, even though their season has been over for a while, they're a scrappy team that still plays hard every week, which is all you ask of a team with their record. They're 2-7 in one score games, they lost to Seattle by 22 and SF by 19, their other losses have come by 1, 3, 1,4,4, 3,3.
And several of those close losses have come against good teams, Sea, SF, GB, and Indy. Also, if they're down two scores late, they have enough offense to get in the backdoor, it's a game they probably lose, but I think they can cover anything over a TD
 
Saints +9. Once again Tampa wins a game where they were out gained, they've now been out gained in their last 8 games. The Bucs are 7-5 but have a negative 22 point differential and are 6-1 in one score games. Their seven wins have been by 3,1,2,3,11,20,5,3. Only one time all year have they won comfortably and ironically that was a 20 point win against the Saints, but in typical Bucs fashion they were out first downed and out yarded in the game. Credit to them for winning, no team should ever apologize for winning a football game, but they're living on the edge. The saints stink, there's no way to sugar coat it, but they continue to play hard, they trailed Miami 16-0, but fought their way back to down 8 late, they scored to make it a 2 point game with a minute to play, they lined up to attempt the tying 2 point conversion, but threw a pick and the Dolphins defender returned it 100 yards for 2 points, so what could have been a tied game instead turned into a 4 point loss, but they played hard and didn't quit when they got down big. This play is more against Tampa than on NO, but I think the line is too high for a team that continues to lose the stats weekly
 
kane said:
Saints +9. Once again Tampa wins a game where they were out gained, they've now been out gained in their last 8 games. The Bucs are 7-5 but have a negative 22 point differential and are 6-1 in one score games. Their seven wins have been by 3,1,2,3,11,20,5,3. Only one time all year have they won comfortably and ironically that was a 20 point win against the Saints, but in typical Bucs fashion they were out first downed and out yarded in the game. Credit to them for winning, no team should ever apologize for winning a football game, but they're living on the edge. The saints stink, there's no way to sugar coat it, but they continue to play hard, they trailed Miami 16-0, but fought their way back to down 8 late, they scored to make it a 2 point game with a minute to play, they lined up to attempt the tying 2 point conversion, but threw a pick and the Dolphins defender returned it 100 yards for 2 points, so what could have been a tied game instead turned into a 4 point loss, but they played hard and didn't quit when they got down big. This play is more against Tampa than on NO, but I think the line is too high for a team that continues to lose the stats weekly
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This is my survivor pick this week. I'm not super confident. 😬
 
I took 7.5 with Atlanta, no best bet or anything, no deep dive, just think the line is a bit high
 
kane said:
I took 7.5 with Atlanta, no best bet or anything, no deep dive, just think the line is a bit high
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Like it. I can see the Falcons getting enough of a pass rush to get Darnold uncomfortable. The negative is life for Bijan and Allgeier will be rough as nobody runs on Seattle. Under is the only way to play this total.
 
I think that Atlanta side is the right side, it’s dropped a point already, just dont trust Cousins.

Dallas TT over 25.5 -125 - dont trust Dallas on the road to cover, but Detroit can’t stop anyone.
Hou +3.5 - not the best number, but their D travels. Looking at a 19-17 type game.
Philly -3 - Bears showed how to beat Philly, but the Charger OL is beat up. How effective will Herbert be is another big question with his hand.
Pitt-Baltimore under 43.5 - both teams will be happy to take FG’s in another 19-17 type of game
Wash -3 - Wash looked good Sunday night, Minn is mailing it in.
Jax ML vs the Colts - Indy has played a lot of clunkers in Jax. They are sliding and Jax is peaking.

Jets just miss the cut for now. Miami is playing well, but has played no one. Tua’s performance in cold weather is well documented.
 
Valuist said:
Like it. I can see the Falcons getting enough of a pass rush to get Darnold uncomfortable. The negative is life for Bijan and Allgeier will be rough as nobody runs on Seattle. Under is the only way to play this total.
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Yeah, I might need a Cousins flash back game, just heard that Darnold hurt his ankle at the end of their last game, doesn't seem serious but it could be something
 
kane said:
Yeah, I might need a Cousins flash back game, just heard that Darnold hurt his ankle at the end of their last game, doesn't seem serious but it could be something
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For all their recent problems, Atlanta does rush the QB well. 25 sacks in the last 5 games and if Darnold has a bad ankle, their offense will be limited.

This is purely anecdotal, but I think of a number of instances this season where a team has turned the ball over inside the opponents' 5 yard line. The Demarcado game, AD Mitchell, Isiah Likely all unable to hold onto the ball going into the end zone. Stafford last week getting picked in the end zone.....the Steelers turning over New England at the goal line and end zone back in week 3. Mahomes getting picked at the Jax 1 then getting returned for a TD. Lamar strip sacked last week. The Bears have had several end zone INTs this year. The only team I can remember overcoming this is the Niners, as Purdy was picked in the end zone by Carolina. These turnovers seem to be especially destructive to a team's psyche and teams cannot overcome them.
 
Viking defense pretty solid. Allowed only 219 yards to Seattle (and 3.5 YPP). Last five games, no opponent has gotten over 325 yards and none have gotten 5.0 or more YPP.

Max Brosmer might be historically bad. Even JJM looks good in comparison.
 
Valuist said:
Viking defense pretty solid. Allowed only 219 yards to Seattle (and 3.5 YPP). Last five games, no opponent has gotten over 325 yards and none have gotten 5.0 or more YPP.

Max Brosmer might be historically bad. Even JJM looks good in comparison.
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It should be a good under game, I just dont trust Wash in an under game though. THis time of year, I pretty much bet on/against qbs.
 
So nobody likes Cincy in Buffalo?

Higgins most likely back....D playing much better last few....Cincy has been a very good Dec. team with Burrow

Also recap of his last cold snowy game is pretty good....1/22/23....

Both sides of the ball always play better when #9 is out there

And yes it's my home team...I follow them closely....and personally know people in the organization...
 
Screw Andrews said:
So nobody likes Cincy in Buffalo?

Higgins most likely back....D playing much better last few....Cincy has been a very good Dec. team with Burrow

Also recap of his last cold snowy game is pretty good....1/22/23....

Both sides of the ball always play better when #9 is out there

And yes it's my home team...I follow them closely....and personally know people in the organization...
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I like the Cincy side more than the Buffalo side, just others I like more at this time. It's a strong lineup of games compared to last sunday.
 
Played Tom Kennedy over 27.5 rec yards -110. He's going to be the main fill-in for ARSB, been on the team for a while. TeSlaa wil be the sexy play, but he's more boom/bust.
 
Screw Andrews said:
So nobody likes Cincy in Buffalo?

Higgins most likely back....D playing much better last few....Cincy has been a very good Dec. team with Burrow

Also recap of his last cold snowy game is pretty good....1/22/23....

Both sides of the ball always play better when #9 is out there

And yes it's my home team...I follow them closely....and personally know people in the organization...
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I don’t. Felt very much like an awful Lamar Jackson contributed more to the result than a sharp Burrow. The D just cannot tackle. The “improvement” last week was still 6.1 YPP. Sorry but best of luck.
 
Valuist said:
I don’t. Felt very much like an awful Lamar Jackson contributed more to the result than a sharp Burrow. The D just cannot tackle. The “improvement” last week was still 6.1 YPP. Sorry but best of luck.
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Last three 5.9....not great by any means but improving....and the difference between Burrow 1H and 2H last week was expected somewhat but also telling......and the Bills at 5.4 YPP is not exactly stunning.....plus not much of a Josh fan in big games...and this is a big game for him
 
I have the Texans +4.5, posted it in the BB thread. Chiefs down three offensive linemen, the Texans aren't team you want to be missing linemen against, Mahomes could be in for a rough game, after going 12-0 in one score games last year, regression has hit KC hard this year in one score games, anything over a FG is a solid take
 
kane said:
I have the Texans +4.5, posted it in the BB thread. Chiefs down three offensive linemen, the Texans aren't team you want to be missing linemen against, Mahomes could be in for a rough game, after going 12-0 in one score games last year, regression has hit KC hard this year in one score games, anything over a FG is a solid take
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Nice price; I bet KC -3. I've been on Houston the last two games, but not a good setup this week. This will be their 3rd road game in 4 weeks. Warm weather dome team goes outside with expected game time temps of 24 degrees.
 
Valuist said:
Nice price; I bet KC -3. I've been on Houston the last two games, but not a good setup this week. This will be their 3rd road game in 4 weeks. Warm weather dome team goes outside with expected game time temps of 24 degrees.
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Cold Weather a Big Factor for Warm Weather Teams.

No Team Shits the Bed More , in Cold Weather , than the Miami Dolphins.

Curious to see how this Solid Houston Team Performs in Kansas City.
 
boston massacre said:
Cold Weather a Big Factor for Warm Weather Teams.

No Team Shits the Bed More , in Cold Weather , than the Miami Dolphins.

Curious to see how this Solid Houston Team Performs in Kansas City.
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No doubt Tua struggles in the cold. I can't hold the one playoff game last year against him. What was it, minus 7? Hard to imagine anyone other than an eskimo or Siberian husky not being miserable.

I'm a fan of this Houston team but it is just a bad spot.
 
Valuist said:
No doubt Tua struggles in the cold. I can't hold the one playoff game last year against him. What was it, minus 7? Hard to imagine anyone other than an eskimo or Siberian husky not being miserable.

I'm a fan of this Houston team but it is just a bad spot.
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And K.C. needs this Game.

BIG TIME !

I'll never rule out Mahomes.

Until he's been Eliminated.
 
kane said:
Rather than type it all again, this is what I posted in Dell's thread yesterday

Cowboys/Lions is a fascinating matchup between two teams heading in opposite directions. The Cowboys stock is as high as it's been all year, while the Lions stock is as low as it's been all year. I have a feeling no one will want any part of Detroit and the bettors will be betting Dallas with both fists. The Cowboys are coming off back to back home wins against the two SB teams from last year, the Lions are coming off an ugly loss to Philly, an ugly win against the Giants in OT, and the loss on Thanksgiving to the Packers. But rather than using recency bias to cap the game, if you look at the season on the whole, the Cowboys have a scoring differential of +9, whereas the Lions are a +76. Dallas averages 29.3 PPG on 393 yards per game, Detroit averages 29.2 PPG on 376 yards per game. Defensively Dallas allows 28.5 PPG and 376 yards per game, Detroit allows 22.8 PPG and 316 yards per game. The Lions have a better PPG differential as well as a YPG differential. The Lions average the 5th most rushing yards per game, and Dallas has given up the 8th most rushing yards in the league, the addition of Quinnen Williams helps, but overall it's still a defense that can be run on, and one way to control an explosive offense like Dallas is to play keep away, run it and control the clock. Like I said, this is a game where no one will want any part of the Lions and will eagerly take the points with Dallas. I think this might be a good time to sell high on the Cowboys and buy low on the Lions. Also, you know Campbell won't change his coaching style, he'll still be aggressive and go for in on fourth down, I think the Lions are 0 for their last 7 fourth down attempts, so the law of averages say their due to make a couple of them. Anyone familiar with me knows I'm a dog player who rarely plays a chalk, but this might be a good to lay it. Not everyone is putting the game out, the ones that are have Detroit a juiced 3, I hope Dallas money comes in knocks it to under a FG, if so I'm liking the Lions, even at 3 I think they're still a good play
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Boom goes the motherfucking dynamite!!!
 
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