NFL Week 17 discussion and picks

kane

EOG master
I'm planning on betting some of the games with over inflated lines, I like going against the teams that need to win to make the playoffs. The only play I've made so far is Houston +4.5, once I heard Bill O'Brien say he was playing his starters, it put me on the Texans, if they played this game two weeks ago Houston is laying around 3, I'll gladly take the points.
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
I like the Ravens . Steelers need to win, but they are not that good. Gus Edwards is better than anything they are trotting out at RB. There is a reason Balt dominates in preseason and it is coaching and attention to detail. I can see this as a 20-16 game, Balt wins.
 

Sportsrmylife

EOG Master
I'm planning on betting some of the games with over inflated lines, I like going against the teams that need to win to make the playoffs. The only play I've made so far is Houston +4.5, once I heard Bill O'Brien say he was playing his starters, it put me on the Texans, if they played this game two weeks ago Houston is laying around 3, I'll gladly take the points.
The danger in playing these "coaches quotes" is that things change fast. Say houston is down 14-0 early suddenly starters will slowly get removed.

I love the playing against the "must win" angle. I agree with your reasoning there.
 

kane

EOG master
I like the Ravens . Steelers need to win, but they are not that good. Gus Edwards is better than anything they are trotting out at RB. There is a reason Balt dominates in preseason and it is coaching and attention to detail. I can see this as a 20-16 game, Balt wins.

I agree, I'll be on the Ravens as well, and I don't know if there's much difference between RG3 and Duck Hodges. Also, this is Baltimore's biggest rival and with a chance to knock the Steelers out of the playoffs, I'm sure they'll play with max effort. I'm hoping to get 3, but I doubt it gets there
 

kane

EOG master
The danger in playing these "coaches quotes" is that things change fast. Say houston is down 14-0 early suddenly starters will slowly get removed.

I love the playing against the "must win" angle. I agree with your reasoning there.

Yeah, there's always the chance a coaches thinking changes during the game, if Watson takes a couple of hard hits O'Brien might yank him, but my approach to week 17 has always been the same and I'm not about to change it now
 

JHU Dad

EOG Dedicated
Buffalo is locked in and playing the Jets. I think Jets will be the only side trying and they should win big.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
Must win teams feel pressure. Already eliminated teams can be loose. Maybe they won't be talented enough to win, but the pressure won't get to them.
 

SlipperyPete

EOG Dedicated
I would be shocked if an 8-7 team (or worse) laying 7 or more in Week 17 has a winning record ATS.

Or even if its over 45%
 

Valuist

EOG Master
why are the Jets trying though?

Personal stats and glory. Players get paid based on their stats, not the team W/L record.

If you are a player, which are you more concerned about? Staying in the league next year at 7 figures as opposed to getting a real job, or the team getting a better draft pick?
 

TobyTyler

EOG Dedicated
i think it's impossible to gauge. you will always have handful of guys playing hard on last game of a contract. some guys who do actually have pride and play it out, and some guys who won't give a shit and will half ass it.
 

mrbowling300

EOG Dedicated
Courtney Cronin of ESPN reports that the team is expected to sit Kirk Cousins for the game. Sean Mannion would make the second start of his career. His first came under similar circumstances for the Rams in Week 17 of the 2017 season.
Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer said earlier this week that he hadn’t made any call, but the fact that Minnesota’s locked into its spot makes it unsurprising that they’d opt to focus on planning for the postseason.
Cronin doesn’t name any other names, but one imagines that running back Dalvin Cook, linebacker Eric Kendricks and any other player with an injury concern would be on the bench to rest up ahead of the team’s road trip in the Wild Card round.


When Mannion was with the Rams, week 17, they played the 5-10 49ers, and ended up losing that game 34-13, as the Rams already clinched their playoff spot.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
i think it's impossible to gauge. you will always have handful of guys playing hard on last game of a contract. some guys who do actually have pride and play it out, and some guys who won't give a shit and will half ass it.

I agree it is very difficult to gauge, but there is low hanging fruit for the players out there. They can build up some misleading stats. Matt Flynn got a big free agent contract basically based on one game, a week 17 performance where he threw 6 (I think) TD passes in what appeared to be a meaningless game.
 
I'm planning on betting some of the games with over inflated lines, I like going against the teams that need to win to make the playoffs. The only play I've made so far is Houston +4.5, once I heard Bill O'Brien say he was playing his starters, it put me on the Texans, if they played this game two weeks ago Houston is laying around 3, I'll gladly take the points.
If KC wins, O'Brien sits players.
 

SlipperyPete

EOG Dedicated
Even Stevie Wonder saw the Vikes resting their starters coming

The question I gotta ask myself is that why I only played the Bears in a teaser????
 

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
As banged up as NE is you know they need that bye. They cruised 43-0 against this beach bum bunch in week 2 and at home I expect more of the same. If Tennessee wins, they're in. Houston has an outside shot to advance to the 3 seed, but all in all not much motivation here.

Top 3 seeds up for grabs in the NFC, otherwise picture looks pretty simple given Minnesota is locked into the #6 and the NFC Least will pitifully result in either the Eagles or Cowboys hosting a wildcard round game.
 
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Viejo Dinosaur

EOG Master
As banged up as NE is you know they need that bye. They cruised 43-0 against this beach bum bunch in week 2 and at home I expect more of the same. If Tennessee wins, they're in. Houston has an outside shot to advance to the 3 seed, but all in all not much motivation here.

Top 3 seeds up for grabs in the NFC, otherwise picture looks pretty simple given Minnesota is locked into the #6 and the NFC Least will pitifully result in either the Eagles or Cowboys hosting a wildcard round game.

Love how everyone is piling on the NFC East.....too many forget the AFC East where NE always got home field advantage for several years straight...they were always set up to go to the championship game every year....
 

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
Love how everyone is piling on the NFC East.....too many forget the AFC East where NE always got home field advantage for several years straight...they were always set up to go to the championship game every year....

But their record was worthy of clinching what they deserved, not some 9-7 8-8 placeholder where no wildcard emerged for years.
 

ZzyzxRoad

EOG Dedicated
Late to the party. I actually had to take two weeks off of gambling (for the first time in 20 years) due to a family emergency. I started handicapping last night. The line on the Seahawks-49ers just makes no sense to me. An 11-4 team just shouldn't be a home underdog.
Can anyone help me with this?
 

JHU Dad

EOG Dedicated
It’s interesting that, in all likelihood, Seattle will know that they have no potential bye if Green Bay and New Orleans win earlier today. While first place sounds great, they are really banged up. Can they survive a drag out battle tonight and win next week?
 

kane

EOG master
Late to the party. I actually had to take two weeks off of gambling (for the first time in 20 years) due to a family emergency. I started handicapping last night. The line on the Seahawks-49ers just makes no sense to me. An 11-4 team just shouldn't be a home underdog.
Can anyone help me with this?

Sorry to hear about your family emergency Benny, hope everything turns out okay. As far as the SF line, two things, first the Hawks are dealing with a ton of injuries, in case you hadn't heard, they just signed Marshawn Lynch since all of their RB's are hurt. Second, Seattle isn't an 11-4 team, they're numbers suggest they're more like a .500 team, of their 11 wins, I think 9 or 10 have come by one score, they've been very fortunate to win some games they probably shouldn't have. SF is 12-3 and have outscored their opposition by 164 points and have out yarded them by an average of 102 yards per game. Seattle has outscored their opponents by 12 points and are getting out gained by 5 yards per game, SF is the clear better team despite their records being similar. If I told you a team averages scoring 25.6 and gives up 24.8 points per game and averages 376 yards on offense per game while giving up 381, what record would you think that team has? I don't think you would say that's an 11-4 team. Now, with all that said, I'm thinking about taking Seattle because that's how I roll, but the line is correct imo. Again, I hope everything is okay with your family since that's more important than this stuff anyway
 

kane

EOG master
I made a rookie mistake taking the Texans early in the week, when Bill O'Brien said he was playing his starters and playing to win the game, I took him at his word, so I take 4.5, before it came out that they would rest some guys including Watson, the line was 3.5, so I was feeling good about my +4.5, now of course it ended up being a mistake. I almost always get the better of the line, but this time I got burned, I'll consider it a lesson learned and hopefully won't make the same mistake going forward
 

kane

EOG master
The Dolphins have very little talent, but they finally hit on a coach, Flores is the real deal
 
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