NFL Week 18: Incentives, Bonuses and Props

[Heim]

Don't think the market is blind to this angle.

Steffon Diggs needs 6 receptions for a million dollar bonus.

You won't see 5.5.

A few out there worth a look included Gronk, and DEN Burkhead.

 

[Heim]

Also real curious to see number for Kupp's receptions, and receiving yardage.

 

[blueline]

Performance bonuses to watch for in Week 18

Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Chris Jones are among those players who can earn some big bonuses with their play in the final game of the season.

touchdownwire.usatoday.com

 

[Sportsrmylife]

Jonathon Taylor push for 2,000 yards has to be in play.

Kupp push for 2,000 receiving yards is in play.

 

[Chi_Archie]

great topic

 

[choslamshe]

Awesome thread Heim thanks. Will be interesting to see some of these prop lines.

 

[Heim]

Kupp needs 12 and 136.

Last v. 49ers: 11 and 122

Possible.... They'll be a few step
back short yardage targets for sure.

 

[railbird]

i remember back in 1974 the Juice getting xtra touches to go over 2000 in 14 games

 

[FairWarning]

i remember back in 1974 the Juice getting xtra touches to go over 2000 in 14 games

Yep

Mooney needs 71 yards rec for 1000, doable with Dalton at QB vs Minn.

 

[FairWarning]

1973 Buffalo passing - 1236 yards, 4 TD’s, 14 INTS. No wonder OJ had 2000 rushing yards.

 

[Sportsrmylife]

AJ Green for the Cardinals has an escalator type of bonus for catches and yards. Every 10 catches over 50 gets him a nice bump.

He has 825 yards right now so playing him over his prop to get to 900 would be a play.

He has 50 catches so him getting to 60 won't happen.

 

[NowshesmyRuca]

If anything the market overreacts to these angles. I do think you can find value but it takes peeling the onion a bit. If you know a team will be forcing a certain situation look at how it affects the other aspects of the game.

 

[Sportsrmylife]

Kyle pitts needs 59 receiving yards to break mike Ditka 's rookie tight end receiving record

 

[Sleepy]

I bet a bunch of these type of props on the final week last season.

Would have gone 0-4 on them had Barkley not busted a 80 yd run near the end of the game.

 

[FairWarning]

If anything the market overreacts to these angles. I do think you can find value but it takes peeling the onion a bit. If you know a team will be forcing a certain situation look at how it affects the other aspects of the game.

The TD props are always tricky in the last week, the defense is aware also.

 

[FairWarning]

Kyle pitts needs 59 receiving yards to break mike Ditka 's rookie tight end receiving record

And Ditka did it in a 12-game season. Pretty impressive that the record held for 60 years.

 

[Sportsrmylife]

And Ditka did it in a 12-game season. Pretty impressive that the record held for 60 years.

More impressive when you consider the forward pass was looked at like the covid is back then

 

[Valuist]

Ditka may have the best rookie TE yardage numbers, but I'm guessing no TE ever was better in year 2 than Gronk: over 1300 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns.

 

[FairWarning]

Ditka may have the best rookie TE yardage numbers, but I'm guessing no TE ever was better in year 2 than Gronk: over 1300 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns.

I can see Pitts getting the 1300 yards, won’t touch the TDs.

 

[choslamshe]

How likely is it for Diggs' last snap of the game to be his 6th catch? I'm seeing a lot of 6.5 receptions props (-125ish to the under), but have to think that the Bills 'should' be up double digits by the time he hits it and then hits the bench shortly after....along with Allen.

 

[FairWarning]

More impressive when you consider the forward pass was looked at like the covid is back then

It still is in Chicago.

 

[Sportsrmylife]

How likely is it for Diggs' last snap of the game to be his 6th catch? I'm seeing a lot of 6.5 receptions props (-125ish to the under), but have to think that the Bills 'should' be up double digits by the time he hits it and then hits the bench shortly after....along with Allen.

This is sharp
He gets his needed catches and disappears to not get injured
I think that is the way it goes

 

[NowshesmyRuca]

I threw a hundo on the Raiders/Chargers game to end in a tie at +2800

 

[Sportsrmylife]

Diggs w 6 catches w 8min left in 2q.
Hope he tips Josh Allen

 

[Sportsrmylife]

I threw a hundo on the Raiders/Chargers game to end in a tie at +2800

I think normally this is 150-1
Given the situation we could see someone kick an extra pt to end the game in a time now
No idea how to calculate this but I'll root you home

 

[ComptrBob]

I think normally this is 150-1
Given the situation we could see someone kick an extra pt to end the game in a time now
No idea how to calculate this but I'll root you home

Before the shortening of OT to 10 minutes, there was around 1 tie in 4 years or about 1 in 1000 games. Now, with 10 min OT, there have been 5 in 5 years, so about 1 in 250.

 

[Heim]

I was disappointed Viking Zimmer didn't try to give Jefferson the record, then take a knee.

 

[Murphy’s Best]

I don’t like the 10 minute OT… should be at least 12 minutes & preferably 15.

 

[ComptrBob]

Here we go .. LAC/LV 29-29 to OT

 

[Heim]

Jesus both teams go with a tie....Pitt out. Wink, wink...

 

[ComptrBob]

Hot damn 32-32 with 4:30 left in OT. Steelers going nowhere???