NFL Week 7, ZzyxzxRoad goes to Lake Tahoe

ZzyzxRoad

ZzyzxRoad

EOG Dedicated
Will try to get pictures. In the meantime, playing casino promos.
Raiders at +3 is the only thing that really jumps off the page as a potentially good bet, despite several home underdogs. The Raiders have been a schizophrenic team so far, and it seems like it could be a big letdown spot for Tampa.
I remember reading that Jon Gruden deeply resented being fired by the Glazer family, but I'm not sure how this will affect things.
Bottom line is that Raiders seem like a clear right side.
Totals: under in Atlanta-Detroit seems like a solid bet, and I'll probably get down tomorrow.
Other than that, all sides and totals seem tight. The brainstorming session at ZzyxzxRoad headquarters today didn't produce much, so will wait to hear what others are doing.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
Have to think the Eagles get to -4 or -4.5. Yes, they've underperformed, but their best is light years better than the Giants, who are getting bailed out by the Jets for their futility.
 
TheGuesser

TheGuesser

EOG Dedicated
ZzyzxRoad said:
Will try to get pictures. In the meantime, playing casino promos.
Raiders at +3 is the only thing that really jumps off the page as a potentially good bet, despite several home underdogs. The Raiders have been a schizophrenic team so far, and it seems like it could be a big letdown spot for Tampa.
I remember reading that Jon Gruden deeply resented being fired by the Glazer family, but I'm not sure how this will affect things.
Bottom line is that Raiders seem like a clear right side.
Totals: under in Atlanta-Detroit seems like a solid bet, and I'll probably get down tomorrow.
Other than that, all sides and totals seem tight. The brainstorming session at ZzyxzxRoad headquarters today didn't produce much, so will wait to hear what others are doing.
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Bad news for you, based on how I did this week. I like the same side, but was dumb enough to like(and bet it) the advance line last week at +2.5, since I thought GB was gonna bitch slap TB.
 
FairWarning

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Im playing Rams, Tenn, and LAC in teasers - depending on numbers of course. The Bears under 46 jumps off the page for me, this should be a 23-13 type of game. Bears are leading the league in RZ defense, and their OL sucks. Those are great things to have in a under. I expect a big game from Aaron Donald.
 
kane

kane

EOG master
Tough board, I like Vegas a little, but nothing looks really strong this week. Some nice looking Wong teasers, Detroit, SF, Tennessee, Washington. Had the Browns beaten the Steelers the Bengals would have been a play for me, but likely now a pass
 
kane

kane

EOG master
Benny, I'll send you my plays later in the week, I don't know if you play college, but I'll give you my college stuff as well
 
X-Files

X-Files

2
The early week "Pinnacle Lean" plays had:

Tennessee/Pittsburg under 52.5 -110
Detroit +3 - 117
Cincinnati +165 ML
San Francisco +120 ML

I wonder why NE is only a 1.5 to 2 pt home fav vs SF.
 
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FairWarning

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
X-Files said:
The early week "Pinnacle Lean" plays had:

Tennessee/Pittsburg under 52.5 -110
Detroit +3 117
Cincinnati +165 ML
San Francisco +120 ML

I wonder why NE is only a 1.5 to 2 pt home fav vs SF.
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I don’t get that line either. I want to play NE off a loss at home, but like the under better withCam at qb.
 
WildBill

WildBill

2
X-Files said:
The early week "Pinnacle Lean" plays had:

Tennessee/Pittsburg under 52.5 -110
Detroit +3 117
Cincinnati +165 ML
San Francisco +120 ML

I wonder why NE is only a 1.5 to 2 pt home fav vs SF.
Click to expand...

SF is getting healthier for the guys who are coming back and stabilizing in the areas where they lost guys for the year. I think they pencil out as a superior team, maybe the solid effort in the Rams game is the buy signal on them.
 
WildBill

WildBill

2
On the Wong-style teasers, seems like they aren't giving a lot of value so far this year. Big favorites seem to be either winning big or in some cases outright losing. Could certainly revert at some point like the under bets finally have.

One bet that seems to make no sense to me is the 45-46 total in Rams-Bears. I already got a good position on the under 46. These teams aren't playing many games anywhere near this number. Both figure to be run heavy this weekend. Going to take some unexpected big plays to get up to this total.
 
kane

kane

EOG master
WildBill said:
On the Wong-style teasers, seems like they aren't giving a lot of value so far this year. Big favorites seem to be either winning big or in some cases outright losing. Could certainly revert at some point like the under bets finally have.

One bet that seems to make no sense to me is the 45-46 total in Rams-Bears. I already got a good position on the under 46. These teams aren't playing many games anywhere near this number. Both figure to be run heavy this weekend. Going to take some unexpected big plays to get up to this total.
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I've been doing great this year playing Wong dogs, this week I have SF +8.5/Tennessee+8
 
WildBill

WildBill

2
kane said:
I've been doing great this year playing Wong dogs, this week I have SF +8.5/Tennessee+8
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I looked it over and you are right, the dogs have been fine. Its the favorites getting teased down that are the problem. I even got f-ed last week when I took Baltimore on one as the line started moving up. I ended up Bal -2.5 and of course they blew that one too.
 
FairWarning

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
WildBill said:
I looked it over and you are right, the dogs have been fine. Its the favorites getting teased down that are the problem. I even got f-ed last week when I took Baltimore on one as the line started moving up. I ended up Bal -2.5 and of course they blew that one too.
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I don't have the numbers, but I try to avoid teasers -2.5. It seems like the 2-point conversion and the longer XP has thrown the numbers off.
 
WildBill

WildBill

2
FairWarning said:
I don't have the numbers, but I try to avoid teasers -2.5. It seems like the 2-point conversion and the longer XP has thrown the numbers off.
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Probably the case. Plus add in the books are trying like hell to avoid teaser exposure moving games from 7.5 to 9.5 on almost no action.
 
FairWarning

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
WildBill said:
Probably the case. Plus add in the books are trying like hell to avoid teaser exposure moving games from 7.5 to 9.5 on almost no action.
Click to expand...
I remember when 5 Dines would open up with a lot of 8.5-9. Far more people were teasing down than up.
 
P

pro analyser

EOG Dedicated
Got to bet against the Cowboys again. If Zach Martin doesn't play their entire offensive line would have been replaced, that projected to start the season. Although Washington is bad their strength is their defensive line. Washington has played two games this season against the nfc east covering against both phil and ny. Dallas also goes to the road after 3 straight home games. Line move is similar to giants phil as phil went from 6 to 3' monday before coming back to 5 day of game. Dallas went from 3 to pk tuesday, lets see if Dallas gets some sucker money day of the game to drive it back to about 2. Then I'll be the sucker.
 
WildBill

WildBill

2
Imagine if you had a packed book today full of typical NFL bettors, what kind of mayhem would have happened after that missed extra point?
 
ZzyzxRoad

ZzyzxRoad

EOG Dedicated
Why would you possibly kick the field goal on 2nd down instead of running at least one more play?
Can someone please explain that to me?
 
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