One-on-One with "1" (Free shot at $500)

I remember a while back someone posted the % chance someone has of winning outright depending on the number of shared plays.

Bob, do you still have that?
 
Yep, actually you had lost when "1" went 2-0 in the morning games and you went 1-1, with the two shared picks, the best you could do was tie (which is a loss in the contest).
 
I remember a while back someone posted the % chance someone has of winning outright depending on the number of shared plays.

Bob, do you still have that?
Don't remember that. Edited and corrected below.

The exact solution depends on the challenger's and "1"'s respective win rates. However if we assume both have a 50% cover rate and no pushes on any game, the contest win rate with no shared picks is 31.4% (challenger wins with 5-0 no matter what EOG does, "1" takes the case of a tied record and the challenger must have winning record).

OTOH, if all picks are shared, the win rate is 1/32 or 3.1%, With 1 shared pick, the contest win rate is 29.1%; with 2 shared picks, 26.6% win rate; 3 and 4 shared pick win rates are 23.44% and 18.8% respectively.
 
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John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
"1" needs the Vikings +3.5 tomorrow night to post a perfect record.

Gotta look to see how Sporty did this week.

He pointed to the fences by saying NFL Week 14 would be a great opportunity to wager.
 
Nicely done.

Four winners from five selections after going 5-0 the week before.

Only the lowly Cardinals let him down.
90% over the last two weeks and nothing to show for it in the free contests. You know betting is getting hard when 90% doesn't get you anything in a free roll. Oh wait I have that bulge in my pocket....wonder what that is.

Ladies....it's not what you think.

Lol. It was a very good Sunday!
 
Congrats, Big Daddy.

Yisman, please note I made a correction and additions to my contest probability post.

Final results for week 14:

Entrant Points Cover W L T
Big Daddy 5.0 49.5 5 0 0
pinnacle420 5.0 47.5 5 0 0
kane 5.0 43.0 5 0 0

ComptrBob 4.0 42.5 4 1 0
sharky99 4.0 33.0 4 1 0
waco 4.0 33.0 4 1 0
svbettor 4.0 32.5 4 1 0
Sportsrmylife 4.0 29.0 4 1 0
Cec The Fleece 4.0 28.0 4 1 0
ChiTownJoe 4.0 26.5 4 1 0
Patkeats 4.0 24.0 4 1 0
lap18 4.0 21.0 4 1 0
eog 4.0 19.5 4 1 0

Mr.Pink 3.0 29.0 3 2 0
VegasVic 3.0 22.0 3 2 0
Patrick McIrish 3.0 21.0 3 2 0
railbird 3.0 19.5 3 2 0
alfie 3.0 17.5 3 2 0
yisman 3.0 15.0 3 2 0
alldaycapper 3.0 13.0 3 2 0
njdave 3.0 9.0 3 2 0
Paleface 3.0 7.0 3 2 0
bimmercando 3.0 6.5 3 2 0
trytrytry 3.0 5.0 3 2 0
ZzyzxRoad 3.0 0.5 3 2 0
Ghostzapper 3.0 -1.0 3 2 0

DrunkenGoon 2.0 11.5 2 3 0
ReadyFreddy 2.0 -2.5 2 3 0
papa 5 2.0 -9.0 2 3 0
TEXED 2.0 -11.0 2 3 0
Foresthill 2.0 -12.0 2 3 0
Big Deemer 2.0 -12.5 2 3 0
wiskers 2.0 -13.0 2 3 0
ejd_5277 2.0 -15.5 2 3 0
TheGuesser 2.0 -22.0 2 3 0

parlaynow 1.0 -17.0 1 4 0
raininthrees 1.0 -23.5 1 4 0
WeinkeToWarrick 1.0 -32.5 1 4 0
puckhandler 1.0 -32.5 1 4 0
cyberbabble 1.0 -38.5 1 4 0
 
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Overall contest record, from "1"'s standpoint, for almost 3 years now (first year, 2016, was invitational, 2017 had Week 17 bonus contestants which are counted separately):

"1": Wins: 27; Win by forfeit: 3; Losses: 20 (includes 3 losses to perfect 5-0): win%: 57.4%.

2017 Week 17: Wins 15, Losses: 13.
 
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WEEK 15
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 13, 2018

1 CHIEFS* 5:20 PM 2 CHARGERS 3.5
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 15, 2018
3 TEXANS 1:30 PM 4 JETS* 6
5 BRONCOS* 5:20 PM 6 BROWNS 3
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 16, 2018
7 VIKINGS* 10:00 AM 8 DOLPHINS 7
9 BENGALS* 10:00 AM 10 RAIDERS 3
11 RAVENS* 10:00 AM 12 BUCCANEERS 7.5
13 COLTS* 10:00 AM 14 COWBOYS 3
15 BILLS* 10:00 AM 16 LIONS 2.5
17 BEARS* 10:00 AM 18 PACKERS 6
19 GIANTS* 10:00 AM 20 TITANS 2.5
21 JAGUARS* 10:00 AM 22 REDSKINS 7
23 FALCONS* 10:00 AM 24 CARDINALS 8.5
25 SEAHAWKS 1:05 PM 26 49ERS* 4.5
27 PATRIOTS 1:25 PM 28 STEELERS* 2.5
29 RAMS* 5:20 PM 30 EAGLES 11
MONDAY, DECEMBER 17, 2018
31 SAINTS 5:15 PM 32 PANTHERS* 5.5
 
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