Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

#42
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

Going out on a limb and say the wise guys bet the total under...but if I am wrong then the books will have a problem on their hand with both the public and wise guys on the over...
Thats a NO BRAINER the WISEGUYS will bet the UNDER... remember what I said the PUBLIC will bet the OVER and Auburn..........
 
#45
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

Auburn would have 2-4 losses with Oregons schedule. Stanford is the best team in the country. Take away Cam Newton from Auburn they would be underdog to Oregon State. ASU is better than Auburn in 18 out of 22 posistions. Oregon had a much tougher schedule. Nice to see you around Horseshoe.

Ok Railbird.

Take your meds
 
#46
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

There are at least 20 teams that would be undefeated if they played Oregons schedule.

At least 20 teams would have had no chance of losing JUST like Oregon if they played that flag football schedule.
 

2W2P2S

EOG Dedicated
#47
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

Figure we have to play the under at some point too, no? Where do you see it closing?
I've already bet the over, and may come back with the under near game time, or maybe just Aub team total under. I think we're in almost unprecedented territory here with this game. And obviously sample size is a major issue when dealing with an o/u of 74. I don't think the same rules apply for "high" totals as they do for "ridiculously high totals". It's why I'll try middling the 3 (already bet Auburn want to come back more over the top with Oregon). It's obvious why the "3" is worth more in low totaled games than higher totaled games, but when the total is extremely high as in this case, it's a reflection of 2 teams with offensive machines and questionable defenses. This tends to keep the game close as well. I think the correlation for the push rate of 3 and the o/u is inversely correlated until a certain point where the total gets very high, and then it goes back up again. The NFL has shown this, but again extremely small sample size.

The line move in this game will also be influenced by what happens in the earlier bowls with the Pac 10 and SEC..i'll keep an eye on those games when determining the timing of my wagers.
 

ouch

EOG Veteran
#49
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

If you are a college football team, and you lose a game to anybody by 21 points, you are not #1.

Goodbye Stanford!
 
#50
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

There are at least 20 teams that would be undefeated if they played Oregons schedule.

At least 20 teams would have had no chance of losing JUST like Oregon if they played that flag football schedule.
there are not 20 teams that would beat stanford.

#1? no. top 5? yes.
 
#51
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

there are not 20 teams that would beat stanford.

#1? no. top 5? yes.

Your assuming that Stanford is a good college football team. Again how do we know? They did not play a top 25 team except the also overated Oregon Ducks and lost to them in a flag football game.
 

IrishTim

EOG Dedicated
#52
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

I've already bet the over, and may come back with the under near game time, or maybe just Aub team total under. I think we're in almost unprecedented territory here with this game. And obviously sample size is a major issue when dealing with an o/u of 74. I don't think the same rules apply for "high" totals as they do for "ridiculously high totals". It's why I'll try middling the 3 (already bet Auburn want to come back more over the top with Oregon). It's obvious why the "3" is worth more in low totaled games than higher totaled games, but when the total is extremely high as in this case, it's a reflection of 2 teams with offensive machines and questionable defenses. This tends to keep the game close as well. I think the correlation for the push rate of 3 and the o/u is inversely correlated until a certain point where the total gets very high, and then it goes back up again. The NFL has shown this, but again extremely small sample size.

The line move in this game will also be influenced by what happens in the earlier bowls with the Pac 10 and SEC..i'll keep an eye on those games when determining the timing of my wagers.
Interesting. If I could get maybe Aub -2.5 (-05) and then Oregon +3.5 (-110) I might have gone for it as long as I had more on the Oregon side. I'm kind of kicking myself for betting Oregon so early now, this looks to be one of those few games where public money really determines the line's direction.
 
#53
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

Numbers say oregon but my eyes and gut say auburn. I just think the pac 10 is soft.I still have how easily oregon was handled physically in last years rose bowl. Smells of the same to me.
 

JohnNetto

EOG Senior Member
#54
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

Interesting. If I could get maybe Aub -2.5 (-05) and then Oregon +3.5 (-110) I might have gone for it as long as I had more on the Oregon side. I'm kind of kicking myself for betting Oregon so early now, this looks to be one of those few games where public money really determines the line's direction.
Checking in from NYC. Don't be kicking yourself as the events which happened over the weekend don't account for a 7 point swing in the line from Oregon being a 4 point favorite to a 3 point dog. If I would have bet it at +2.5, then I would be kicking myself as that is a bad play, but if you are going to be aggressive early on, then sometimes you will make the wrong play, just as the markets. I happy with my thought process and play as none of us have the benefit of hindsight. I do see a very competitive game and think the 3 is very live, especially in a game where the final drive of the game will either give oregon the win, or potentially cut the deficit to 3. It's so incredible b/c leading up to the SEC conf game Auburn fell behind Georgia by 14, Alabama by 24 (in what could have been 42) and staged great comebacks. Oregon has the killer instinct and depth at WR and RB that Alabama and Georgia simply don't possess. To the speed savvy SEC, Oregon is the fastest team in college football this year and I love how Chip Kelly manages a game and Auburn's secondary vulnerability and how efficiently Oregon rotate 24 players on defense contributing to their ability to pull away in second halves...
So while I'm the first to admit my mistake and I very much overlooked the fact that the public would be playing auburn so heavily, but I thought that was the adjustment the oddsmakers had already made. So note to self for next time, but I stand by my play...Oregon is the best team in college football and I am confident they will take down this game...
 

lordjeff

EOG Enthusiast
#56
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

streaks exist to be broken if sec teams played more games against other sec teams, the relative strength of the league would be downgraded this wrong favorite line seems to be strongly related to what ameriica saw on tv last weekend auburn dominating sc in prime time in a game many figured to be close oregon less impressive in victory on the road in a rivalry game oregon/auburn should be a great game to bet the quarters i have only one question about the game
which uniforms will they wear when theducks take the bcs trophy home?
 
#57
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

I've already bet the over, and may come back with the under near game time, or maybe just Aub team total under. I think we're in almost unprecedented territory here with this game. And obviously sample size is a major issue when dealing with an o/u of 74. I don't think the same rules apply for "high" totals as they do for "ridiculously high totals". It's why I'll try middling the 3 (already bet Auburn want to come back more over the top with Oregon). It's obvious why the "3" is worth more in low totaled games than higher totaled games, but when the total is extremely high as in this case, it's a reflection of 2 teams with offensive machines and questionable defenses. This tends to keep the game close as well. I think the correlation for the push rate of 3 and the o/u is inversely correlated until a certain point where the total gets very high, and then it goes back up again. The NFL has shown this, but again extremely small sample size.

The line move in this game will also be influenced by what happens in the earlier bowls with the Pac 10 and SEC..i'll keep an eye on those games when determining the timing of my wagers.
I strongly DISSAGREE with you on this, first off 3 is no where near the number it is in the NFL, secondly ANYTIME you have a high total like in this case 74 and a very low spread at -3 and you like the dog, the VALUE is 100% betting the ML, and GOOD LUCK with your middles -2.5 and +3,5 with a 74.5 total... make sure you are getting plus money on both sides, because I wouldn't lay -105 on both sides with a spread and total like this, its a good way to be in the poor house real fast...
 

JohnNetto

EOG Senior Member
#58
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

I strongly DISSAGREE with you on this, first off 3 is no where near the number it is in the NFL, secondly ANYTIME you have a high total like in this case 74 and a very low spread at -3 and you like the dog, the VALUE is 100% betting the ML, and GOOD LUCK with your middles -2.5 and +3,5 with a 74.5 total... make sure you are getting plus money on both sides, because I wouldn't lay -105 on both sides with a spread and total like this, its a good way to be in the poor house real fast...
So what is your play on the game rainbow? Are you playing the money line on Oregon? or laying it with Auburn?
 

Horseshoe

EOG Senior Member
#60
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

I can see why you and many others may like Oregon.

As Aub, unlike the six previous BCS era SEC Champs that went to the BCSCG, were either defensively dominant, or much more balanced there, than this Auburn Defense(which is strong upfront vs the run, but porous in the Secondary).

Also, Auburn, is more a finesse and quick-strike Spread Offense(like say recent Fla Gator teams), than the more pro-sets Bama and two LSU teams, which liked to pound it inside-the-Tackles dominating TOP/Clock, via Saban and Miles modus-operandi. Auburn utilizing McCaleb on the edges, Dyar inside, Fanin, etc..

Can't wait for this game..Auburn hasn't had to stop an Offense of Oregon's caliber all year..Oregon hasn't had to play trench warfare with a team of Aub's OL & DL caliber all year.
 

2W2P2S

EOG Dedicated
#63
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

I strongly DISSAGREE with you on this, first off 3 is no where near the number it is in the NFL, secondly ANYTIME you have a high total like in this case 74 and a very low spread at -3 and you like the dog, the VALUE is 100% betting the ML, and GOOD LUCK with your middles -2.5 and +3,5 with a 74.5 total... make sure you are getting plus money on both sides, because I wouldn't lay -105 on both sides with a spread and total like this, its a good way to be in the poor house real fast...
I know most are going to disagree with me here. You have a lot of experience with totals of 74 in CFB in your career?
Of course not, and I think you missed my point. I realize the value of 3 in CFB, I realize the correlation of the push rate and the total. If this total was 45, 50, 55, 60, maybe even 65 I stay away for exactly the reasons you are saying. At 74, I will take a chance at laying -105 each way, and hope maybe I get +3.5+ for the reasons I stated. Let's get past that point and agree we both know what you/I have stated about the 3. I think you've missed the reasonings I gave why I'll try to middle in this unique situation. I doubt we'll agree here.
 
#66
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

I know most are going to disagree with me here. You have a lot of experience with totals of 74 in CFB in your career?
Of course not, and I think you missed my point. I realize the value of 3 in CFB, I realize the correlation of the push rate and the total. If this total was 45, 50, 55, 60, maybe even 65 I stay away for exactly the reasons you are saying. At 74, I will take a chance at laying -105 each way, and hope maybe I get +3.5+ for the reasons I stated. Let's get past that point and agree we both know what you/I have stated about the 3. I think you've missed the reasonings I gave why I'll try to middle in this unique situation. I doubt we'll agree here.
45 total I might would try it, but I woud prefer the total lower than 40. the larger the total the lower the ML.
 
#68
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

Pinny already has a number up on the game. My prediction is it goes off pick'em and we will only see +3 for a few days...We'll see...Last week the Wynn had this as Oregon -4.5...Oregon went on the road and won. Auburn looked great as well and both teams are very explosive offensively...total is 74.5 which is too high to play...
You do realize Pinnacle opened Auburn -2.5, right?
 
#69
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

You do realize Pinnacle opened Auburn -2.5, right?

Whether you want to believe it or not Pinnacle makes horrible openers when it come to the lines/odds on any major sports.

How they didn't open this game -3 shows how bad they are at opening games. I guess that's why they gave up that idea a long time ago.
 
#70
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

Anybody can make a line on these major games.

The Bettors who think Auburn shouldn't be favored should remember the team plays the toughest schedule always has the edge.

And Oregon has played nobody this year.
 

2W2P2S

EOG Dedicated
#71
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

Whether you want to believe it or not Pinnacle makes horrible openers when it come to the lines/odds on any major sports.

How they didn't open this game -3 shows how bad they are at opening games. I guess that's why they gave up that idea a long time ago.
Hilton opened Ore -3
MGMs opened Ore -2.5

And then Pinny released their opener.
 
#73
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

Wynn opened Oregon -4.5.

That's just ignorant.

And Mr. Wynn (Wienstein) pays employees for this crap?

If for a minute anyone thinks Oregon is a top 10 team and should be favored over any of them should just quit and find another job where you don't have to think.
 
#74
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

Bowl games

Pac-10 is favored in 1 game overall they are 1-3 as favorites
Big-10 the other overated conference this year is 1-6 as favorites

And only because of the MYTH that Ohio State and Oregon are these top teams.

Between both overated conferences they are favored in 2 games out of 11 games. Pretty tough stuff

The SEC?

8-3 as favorites with 11 teams making bowls.

You guys tell me why Oregon should be a favorite?

Oh they look good :+textinb3
 

IrishTim

EOG Dedicated
#75
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

The SEC is a better conference than the PAC 10. What an insightful angle. Wish I would've thought of that.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#76
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

I prefer the NFL Draft argument: the SEC sent 49 players to the NFL in the 2010 Draft while the Pac-10 sent only 29.
 

IrishTim

EOG Dedicated
#77
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

I prefer the NFL Draft argument: the SEC sent 49 players to the NFL in the 2010 Draft while the Pac-10 sent only 29.
Haha, therefore Auburn will beat Oregon by more than 3. :LMAO

About as relevant as when those touts say stuff like Team X is 11-7 ATS against Team Y over the last 30 years.
 
#78
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

Throw your money away IrishTim.

If you can't see that 1 team is a complete team and beat way better teams going undefeated and has a played at the college level that looks unstoppable.

And the other team has done NOTHING except run up scores against below average college teams then you should give up sports betting.

This game should be at least -4 and could be as high as -7 if half the countrys ignorant football fans didn't see how everything is set up.

But as a bettor you should be able to see VALUE and you are NOT getting any VALUE is you are betting Oregon as they should be getting a lot more points then 3.

Hope you are not betting this NON-VALUE bet on Oregon.
 

IrishTim

EOG Dedicated
#80
Re: Oregon Plus + 3 -1.10 over Auburn...

Complete team? Take away Cam Newton and the line is Oregon -10. Auburn is a one-man show, without him they have at least 3 losses. There isn't a team in the nation more dependent on a single player than Auburn. As far as looking "unstoppable", that certainly wasn't what I was thinking when they were down 24-0 to Alabama. Sure, they showed some moxie (and a lot of luck) in coming back to win that one, but "unstoppable" teams don't go down 24-0.
 
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