Phoenix International Raceway

heartman

EOG Senior Member
YTD = -231.23


Sprint Cup Qualifying

Kyle Busch -105 ov Johnson
22 tw 20.95


Sprint Cup Race

Harvick +100 ov Kenseth
22 tw 22

Kyle Busch +850 to win race
15 tw 127.50
 

heartman

EOG Senior Member
Re: Phoenix International Raceway

This is one of Harvicks best tracks. Not a great track for Kenseth.

I would not have used these 2 as an opening matchup if I were the origionator.

I'm also surprised at the Nationwide Matchup. Hornish won this race in 2011. Allgaier has been solid here but nothing spectacular.
 

heartman

EOG Senior Member
Re: Phoenix International Raceway

Sprint Cup Qualifying

Logano -110 ov Keselowski
22 tw 20


Nationwide Race matchup

Smith +140 ov Bayne
22 tw 30.80
 

heartman

EOG Senior Member
Re: Phoenix International Raceway

I hate betting against the Roush #6 Nationwide team but I think Smith is a better driver than Bayne and the +140 was too good to pass up.
 
Re: Phoenix International Raceway

good stuff

:cheers

Do you think it's weird that Edwards is -130 over Biffle (+100) in qualifying?
I don't really see what advantage Edwards has over Biff. I haven't tracked qualifying (ever) but I would imagine Edwards' car is not 6% better, but I really have no idea.
 

heartman

EOG Senior Member
Re: Phoenix International Raceway

Edwards has a clear statistical qualifying edge the last 5 races at this track including 2 poles.

Carl= 13, 24, 9, 1, 1. Last 5.

Greg= 20, 7, 29, 10, 4. Last 5.

I've only seen 2 posters over the last 10 years who were good at qualifying wagers and I'm not one of them.

Be aware that qual order is back to random draw.

Good Luck!
 
Re: Phoenix International Raceway

Here is the starting lineup for Sunday's NASCAR Subway Fresh Fit 500 at Phoenix:
1) Mark Martin
2) Kasey Kahne
3) Jimmie Johnson
4) Kyle Busch
5) Jeff Gordon
6) Tony Stewart
7) Kevin Harvick
8) Denny Hamlin
9) Matt Kenseth
10) Ryan Newman
11) Brad Keselowski
12) Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
13) Clint Bowyer
14) Martin Truex Jr.
15) Carl Edwards
16) Paul Menard
17) Greg Biffle
18) Aric Almirola
19) Jamie McMurray
20) Jeff Burton
21) Dale Earnhardt Jr.
22) Marcos Ambrose
23) AJ Allmendinger
24) David Ragan
25) Kurt Busch
26) Dave Blaney
27) J.J. Yeley
28) Scott Speed
29) Juan Pablo Montoya
30) Travis Kvapil
31) David Gilliland
32) Joey Logano
33) Bobby Labonte
34) David Reutimann
35) Mike Bliss
36) Josh Wise
37) David Stremme
38) Landon Cassill
39) Scott Riggs
40) Danica Patrick
41) Joe Nemechek
42) Ken Schrader
43) Casey Mears
 
Re: Phoenix International Raceway

Hey Heartman, how do you think Stenhouse is going to do this year in the #17?
That has been a quality car for RFR and now just handing it over to Stenhouse?

Is there much past data of new "rookie" drivers being given solid teams?
Logano had the #20 Home Depot the past few years and then Gibbs booted him for not doing enough with that car
 

heartman

EOG Senior Member
Re: Phoenix International Raceway

Vickers
Truex
Keselowski

All 3 of these drivers were Nationwide champions who went to really good Sprint Cup teams and all 3 sucked thier rookie year. I think Ricky will have his moments but he'll be lucky to finish in the top 20 overall at years end.
 

heartman

EOG Senior Member
Re: Phoenix International Raceway

Nationwide Race

Keselowski +135 ov Harvick
22 tw 29.70

Kyle Busch +225 to win race
20 tw 45

Vickers +700 to win race
15 tw 105

Good Luck!!!
 
Re: Phoenix International Raceway

:cheers

Good day Heartman

Kyle Busch and his car were ridiculous. He gave the field 20 spots and still won.
 

heartman

EOG Senior Member
Re: Phoenix International Raceway

I need to pick some winners in the Cup race.

Real slow start to the season so far.
 

heartman

EOG Senior Member
Re: Phoenix International Raceway

Cup Race

Martin +1200 to win race
22 tw 264

Bowyer +2500 to win race
5 tw 125

Stewart +120 ov Kahne
22 tw 26.40

Keselowski +105 ov Hamlin
22 tw 23.10

Truex -125 finishes over 10 1/2
22 tw 17.60

Edwards -115 finishes under 9 1/2
22 tw 19.13

Biffle -125 ov Earnhardt Jr
22 tw 17.60
 
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