PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger *Winner Inside*

[diogee]

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

20-15

Sunday:
Play #33 New England -3
Play #36 Tampa Bay -1.5

One optional pick left.

also has the hornets -1

 

[cheapseats]

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

20/35 = 57.14 yea

 

[diogee]

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

:+textinb3

that velvet :LMAO:LMAO:LMAO

 

[CHIHUAHUA]

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

trends are meant to be broken

 

[CHIHUAHUA]

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

What an ugly loss by Tampa bay on the -1.5 spread. Overtime and TB probably wins by 3.

 

[PO69]

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

Yes that will lose the bet for me right there.


On Thursday night I lose on the last play of the game with Indy and now today I lose on the 4th down touchdown and missed extra point. I have no shot at winning now, How many games can I lose by 1/2 point or 1 point?

 

[BigDaddy]

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

that was a sick beat PO

 

[IrishTim]

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

Tampa Bay closed -1 pretty much everywhere. And yet there are those who will continue to argue that beating the closer doesn't matter. Just had to get that in

And that is a rough way to lose - much much worse than the Thursday night Colts game (which also opened 2 and closed 3-).

 

[KingRevolver]

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

Tough way to win! Washington was up most of the game...

It looks like you'll be going 1-2 today.

 

[CHIHUAHUA]

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

what is the update on the record?

 

[diogee]

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

21-17

 

[KingRevolver]

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

Here's how it'll go. He'll try a couple more picks for a couple more days. If he gets closer to winning it, he'll continue. If he gets closer to losing, he'll be stalling this whole thing out.

 

[diogee]

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

PO goes 10-2 for the final plays...book it velvet.

 

[CHIHUAHUA]

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

55.26% is what I get. It is a toss up!

 

[PO69]

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

Irish Timmy,


The line that Kinger makes me choose was the strict -110 line which was -1.5 at least until 10 minutes before kickoff when I stopped looking at 5dimes. And the Colts was a tougher beat especially since i had them at -2.5 on 3 bets. Had this game gone to OT then maybe i would not have won, but the Colts was a real bad beat. Why couldnt that extra point have been missed?


Kinger, not going to stall at all. But only going to use the NFL pretty much. It appears that I do best on those picks. My New Orleans pick today in NBA really sucked. But there is no stalling at all. The idea of this contest was that it would take around 50 days since that is 1 pick per day. I will be done way before that I believe

 

[PO69]

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

I do already have 2 plays for next weekend. 2 small favorites and 1 big underdog. I will pick 2 of those 3 plays

 

[IrishTim]

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

Irish Timmy,

The line that Kinger makes me choose was the strict -110 line which was -1.5 at least until 10 minutes before kickoff when I stopped looking at 5dimes. And the Colts was a tougher beat especially since i had them at -2.5 on 3 bets. Had this game gone to OT then maybe i would not have won, but the Colts was a real bad beat. Why couldnt that extra point have been missed?

Colts might have been a worse loss for you because you had more money on them, but I think TB was certainly a "bad beat" while the Colts backers were just unlucky.

 

[Teddy kgb]

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

Colts might have been a worse loss for you because you had more money on them, but I think TB was certainly a "bad beat" while the Colts backers were just unlucky.

Unlucky? LMFAO.....Lets forget about value and start a thread about luck...Meathead

 

[BrickShitHouse]

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

Tim what percentage of games do you allow for lucky/unluckyness when figuring your advantage percentage?

 

[KingRevolver]

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

op:

 

[IrishTim]

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

Tim what percentage of games do you allow for lucky/unluckyness when figuring your advantage percentage?

Not too sure what you're asking, but I basically ignore it and expect that the good and bad "beats" even out and I'm left with the original edge I calculated. The antidote to randomness of course is to just try to play as many games as I can where I have a (perceived) edge to minimize the effects of randomness.

If you're talking about when measuring variables in a model or something along these lines, I like to get three standard deviations worth of statistical significance, but will settle for two (~95% certainty) if something makes logical sense to me. Variance - a fancy word to account for short-term randomness - is simply (standard deviation) ^2.

 

[KingRevolver]

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

Update: 21-17 55%

 

[diogee]

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger (21-17)

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger (21-17)

PO is back for 2 wins tomorrow!!! Best to go ahead and change that to 23-17 :horse:

 

[BrickShitHouse]

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger

Not too sure what you're asking, but I basically ignore it and expect that the good and bad "beats" even out and I'm left with the original edge I calculated. The antidote to randomness of course is to just try to play as many games as I can where I have a (perceived) edge to minimize the effects of randomness.

If you're talking about when measuring variables in a model or something along these lines, I like to get three standard deviations worth of statistical significance, but will settle for two (~95% certainty) if something makes logical sense to me. Variance - a fancy word to account for short-term randomness - is simply (standard deviation) ^2.

yeah, i was basically wondering if you calculate anything for bad beats or good beats or if they even out too so you dont even mess with them.

 

[Patrick McIrish]

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger (21-17)

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger (21-17)

Holy cow this thing got close!? I thought PO had this locked up already? Still anyone's game at this point.....

 

[diogee]

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger (21-17)

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger (21-17)

PO is just toying with velvet here. Once it gets towards the end and is go time PO is going to finish with a bang.

 

[KingRevolver]

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger (21-17)

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger (21-17)

Holy cow this thing got close!? I thought PO had this locked up already? Still anyone's game at this point.....

PO is choking it away.

 

[PO69]

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger (21-17)

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger (21-17)

God Damn! I was going to take Atlanta in hockey. I didnt know that it started at 730 though. For some reason I was thinking 8pm.


Let me know kinger if you will let me take them after the 1st period if the score is still tied and I will.


I may add a football play in a few minutes, just cant quite pull the trigger

 

[KingRevolver]

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger (21-17)

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger (21-17)

Of course you can't take Atlanta- the game started already -so we move on to the next game.

 

[PO69]

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger (21-17)

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger (21-17)

Well I meant if it was tied at the end of the 1st at 0-0. But son of a bitch!! Now they are winning too!

 

[KingRevolver]

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger (21-17)

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger (21-17)

:LMAO

 

[MannyLovitto]

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger (21-17)

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger (21-17)

God Damn! I was going to take Atlanta in hockey. I didnt know that it started at 730 though. For some reason I was thinking 8pm.


Let me know kinger if you will let me take them after the 1st period if the score is still tied and I will.


I may add a football play in a few minutes, just cant quite pull the trigger

If the NYG and MIN are tied after three quarters, HoundDrowner, maybe Kinger will let you play the 4Q at MIN +4

 

[Timely Hero]

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger (21-17)

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger (21-17)

God Damn! I was going to take Atlanta in hockey. I didnt know that it started at 730 though. For some reason I was thinking 8pm.


Let me know kinger if you will let me take them after the 1st period if the score is still tied and I will.


I may add a football play in a few minutes, just cant quite pull the trigger

You really are a retard, aren't you? Can you take a play that was already 11 minutes in? Jesus, who would even ask that question... only PO. :yay

 

[KingRevolver]

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger (21-17)

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger (21-17)

If the NYG and MIN are tied after three quarters, HoundDrowner, maybe Kinger will let you play the 4Q at MIN +4

Funny stuff, Bman.

 

[PO69]

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger (21-17)

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger (21-17)

I wasnt asking for any points idiot! I was taking the underdog in the hockey game straight up. But I wouldnt expect for someone as stupid as you are to understand such a concept

 

[Timely Hero]

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger (21-17)

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger (21-17)

You wanted to take a game after it started you dumb ass. The only one who is retarded is the guy who would ask that question...

 

[PO69]

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger (21-17)

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger (21-17)

You are a fucking idiot. i was going to take it at the END of the first period if he wanted it. The line will still be around +100 for Atlanta at the end of the first had the score still been 0-0. BUt of course you would not understand such a concept either

 

[Timely Hero]

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger (21-17)

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger (21-17)

Also, if an underdog is tied after 1 period of a hockey game, don't you think there odds of winning increases when compared to being tied 0-0 before the game started? I would expect a gambling professional like yourself to know this.

 

[PO69]

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger (21-17)

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger (21-17)

Timely, do you have Down's Syndrome??

 

[Timely Hero]

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger (21-17)

Re: PO69 attempt at 56% over 50 plays! $1500 wager with Kinger (21-17)

Timely, do you have Down's Syndrome??

It would seem to me that you're more likely to suffer from a mental disorder since you can't ever remember something you're told. When your mom made you move to Texas because you wouldn't stop eating the chocolate and lemon snow, did it click in your mind that you are special?