Post-race analysis of the Kentucky Derby

ChiTownJoe

EOG Dedicated
If anybody thought another horse on that track was beating Maximum Security on that day, they are nuts.

I dislike the trainer and know he is getting huge move ups, makes it impossible to throw out one of his horses. Look at Firenze Fire in last yr's Dwyer on Belmont Day, over 100K was bet on him in the last flash. So in my view the guy is bad for the game.

Truly believe if Baffert or Mott trained winner, he stays up.

Slow motion video shows that War of Will might have interfered with MS before he drifted out.
https://www.horseracingnation.com/n..._Maximum_Security_s_Kentucky_Derby_appeal_123

The Mig had a photo of Mendelsohn last yr that looked like his legs were tangled with Noble Indy. Says its happens every year in Derby. Also said bad call.




1557241530100.png
 

blueline

EOG Master
That is what has puzzled me the most, why the jockey on 'Will' never lodged a jockey's claim of foul? He had the best vantage point if
in fact there was interference.
Its unwritten rules many abide by...he wasn't going to get moved up enough to get a check so he's not going to claim foul
 

Screw Andrews

EOG Dedicated
Its unwritten rules many abide by...he wasn't going to get moved up enough to get a check so he's not going to claim foul

But many here and elsewhere think WOW would have won easy......

If only we could get master horseman Gabe to chime in and end this debate once and for all.....
 

mr merlin

EOG Master
I see country house is now out do to a cold/cough, good riddance. the owner of maximum security should get back in now.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
But many here and elsewhere think WOW would have won easy......

If only we could get master horseman Gabe to chime in and end this debate once and for all.....

War of Will likely would've been top 4 or 5. I don't think anyone would've said he would've won easily. Anyone who thinks that is delusional.

I don't understand why the connections of Maximim Security don't go to Pimlico. He'd have a great shot at winning, esp with the race being 110 yards shorter. He certainly isn't gonna run in the Preakness.

I know this: if Max Security and War of Will were to face off in Baltimore, MS would take much more betting money.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
Anyone who agrees with him must not watch horse racing on a daily basis. This is a no brainer DQ.. so obvious and it had to happen

What happens on a daily basis is irrelevant here. Stewards issue DQs in half-hazard fashion on cheap races. Why? Because they can't take 20 minutes to decide a foul in a 15000 claiming race. And if they are wrong? It's no big deal; most DQs involve flip flopping the top 2 finishers. A few thousand dollars in purse money. No big deal. Here you not only have a giant purse but Triple Crown races determine a lot of what future stallions will stand for. They better be damned sure to make a change in a Triple Crown race, or a Breeders Cup race.
 

ChiTownJoe

EOG Dedicated
Anyone who agrees with him must not watch horse racing on a daily basis. This is a no brainer DQ.. so obvious and it had to happen

Everyone has their opinion. I probably watch 5000 races a yr. I'm dumbfounded by calls made by the stewards all the time.

In the biggest race of the year you punish bettors to the maximum possible extent when the best horse won and the horse he interfered with wasn't going to win the race.

If the horse he interfered with thought he was going to win the race, he would have lodged an objection. Tyler G on WOW didn't object.

Baffert said
“No one calls an objection in the Derby… It’s always a roughly run race. Twenty-horse field. I have been wiped out numerous times, but that is the Derby. I can see by the book why they did it. Sometimes you’ve got to take your ass-kickings with dignity.’”

https://thespun.com/more/top-stories/bob-baffert-has-strong-response-to-kentucky-derby-controversy


Yeah he trains for the West's, but he also trained for Kaleem Shah and they split. Baffert doesn't need the business and isn't an ass kisser supporting one of his clients. He is telling it like he sees it.
 

Screw Andrews

EOG Dedicated
War of Will would have won. Fuck Servis
War of Will likely would've been top 4 or 5. I don't think anyone would've said he would've won easily. Anyone who thinks that is delusional.

Well some feel that way...lol......could be a member of the Gabe syndicate tho....in many ways see horses the same

Agree on Pimlico......maybe just a pride FU statement sort of thing....can't imagine what those connections are feeling right now.....they lived the dream almost....16K claimer to the Derby
 

Screw Andrews

EOG Dedicated
Everyone has their opinion. I probably watch 5000 races a yr. I'm dumbfounded by calls made by the stewards all the time.

In the biggest race of the year you punish bettors to the maximum possible extent when the best horse won and the horse he interfered with wasn't going to win the race.

If the horse he interfered with thought he was going to win the race, he would have lodged an objection. Tyler G on WOW didn't object.

Baffert said
“No one calls an objection in the Derby… It’s always a roughly run race. Twenty-horse field. I have been wiped out numerous times, but that is the Derby. I can see by the book why they did it. Sometimes you’ve got to take your ass-kickings with dignity.’”

https://thespun.com/more/top-stories/bob-baffert-has-strong-response-to-kentucky-derby-controversy


Yeah he trains for the West's, but he also trained for Kaleem Shah and they split. Baffert doesn't need the business and isn't an ass kisser supporting one of his clients. He is telling it like he sees it.

AMEN
 

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
granted this is the next day after you have some time to think about what you want to say to the press but this is worth a watch

Casse did say if they were higher like 6th better where a move up would be an official placing, at the finish they would have immediately claimed objection and let the stewards rule on it. Casse is pretty clear in this what he thinks. not saying he is right either. .

the interference put him so far back that he said well it does not matter now.

what a mess horse racing cant catch a break this year.
 

Screw Andrews

EOG Dedicated
granted this is the next day after you have some time to think about what you want to say to the press but this is worth a watch

Casse did say if they were higher like 6th better where a move up would be an official placing, at the finish they would have immediately claimed objection and let the stewards rule on it. Casse is pretty clear in this what he thinks. not saying he is right either. .

the interference put him so far back that he said well it does not matter now.

what a mess horse racing cant catch a break this year.
Exactly....you don't claim foul when you know you're beat....

Real men in the Derby don't come for participation trophy's
 

ChiTownJoe

EOG Dedicated
I wouldn't have bet anything on MAXIMUM SECURITY winning the race just inside the 1/4 pole.

Jason Servis has to have some amazing medicine. You don't see many horses carve out the pace going 10 F with a fast opening 4F in the slop, get headed and confronted by 3 horses and then repel them away in the last Q to draw away to win by 1.75 lengths

1557263569429.png
 

blueline

EOG Master
War of Will likely would've been top 4 or 5. I don't think anyone would've said he would've won easily. Anyone who thinks that is delusional.

I don't understand why the connections of Maximim Security don't go to Pimlico. He'd have a great shot at winning, esp with the race being 110 yards shorter. He certainly isn't gonna run in the Preakness.

I know this: if Max Security and War of Will were to face off in Baltimore, MS would take much more betting money.
He's not even 3 yet by his foaming date
No way I run him with no Triplecrown on the line..I aim for Travers
 

BenoitPaire2

EOG Veteran
What happens on a daily basis is irrelevant here. Stewards issue DQs in half-hazard fashion on cheap races. Why? Because they can't take 20 minutes to decide a foul in a 15000 claiming race. And if they are wrong? It's no big deal; most DQs involve flip flopping the top 2 finishers. A few thousand dollars in purse money. No big deal. Here you not only have a giant purse but Triple Crown races determine a lot of what future stallions will stand for. They better be damned sure to make a change in a Triple Crown race, or a Breeders Cup race.


So who cares about the connections of war of will? That horse was rolling.... cost the connections $400k+

Bottom line.. he caused war of will a huge placing. Was he going to win? Maybe, maybe not... but you shouldn’t award connections for a horse that took out probably the biggest contender at the time.

I’m not sure why people can’t see that.
 

BenoitPaire2

EOG Veteran
War of Will likely would've been top 4 or 5. I don't think anyone would've said he would've won easily. Anyone who thinks that is delusional.

I don't understand why the connections of Maximim Security don't go to Pimlico. He'd have a great shot at winning, esp with the race being 110 yards shorter. He certainly isn't gonna run in the Preakness.

I know this: if Max Security and War of Will were to face off in Baltimore, MS would take much more betting money.


You might want to look at Servis track record. He never brings back horses in 2 weeks... why? Cause the drugs need time to wear off. There’s a reason why people don’t claim off of Servis (and Navarro’s horses)......
 

Bigrunner

EOG Master
I wouldn't have bet anything on MAXIMUM SECURITY winning the race just inside the 1/4 pole.

Jason Servis has to have some amazing medicine. You don't see many horses carve out the pace going 10 F with a fast opening 4F in the slop, get headed and confronted by 3 horses and then repel them away in the last Q to draw away to win by 1.75 lengths

View attachment 7459211

Yes but who were the three horses? In that picture I see the best horse is around 9th or 10th very wide and going wider about 10 lengths back. If Game Winner was where Country House is bye, bye!
 

Valuist

EOG Master
Game Winner did lose a ton of ground but all the stretch runners had a fast early/slow late race shape going for them. The final 6 furlongs of the Derby were run in 1:17 and change.
 

Valuist

EOG Master
You might want to look at Servis track record. He never brings back horses in 2 weeks... why? Cause the drugs need time to wear off. There’s a reason why people don’t claim off of Servis (and Navarro’s horses)......

Servis trains a lot of claiming horses. You aren't going to train a 6 year old ouchy claimer the same way you would a top level 3 year old. Connections should try to find the best place to maximize value. The Preakness field is coming up weak. Country House is not going. From what I've heard, only Improbable and War of Will are likely to go from the Derby field. Maybe Game Winner but that hasn't been confirmed. And Mr. Money from the Pat Day Mile. You only get one chance to run in a Triple Crown race. They have a sharp horse; the only people West and Servis are punishing is themselves by not running.
 

blueline

EOG Master
No chance I'm coming back in 2 weeks with no TC on the line...don't know what his issues were to be in for that tag in the first olace
 

Valuist

EOG Master
No chance I'm coming back in 2 weeks with no TC on the line...don't know what his issues were to be in for that tag in the first olace

A win in a Triple Crown race looks real good for the breeding resume. "Crossing the wire first" in the Derby just isn't the same, regardless of whether one agreed with the decision or not. He didn't figure to run in the Belmont anyways. Why not take advantage of the considerably weaker field at Pimlico?
 

blueline

EOG Master
TC race black type is obviously nice but I don't know what his physical issues are and he is young.....less is more to me in this case
 

ChiTownJoe

EOG Dedicated
Yes but who were the three horses? In that picture I see the best horse is around 9th or 10th very wide and going wider about 10 lengths back. If Game Winner was where Country House is bye, bye!

Game Winner wants to run outside, he was projected to get the wide trip with Rosario up and he got it.
 

ChiTownJoe

EOG Dedicated
I think Maximum Security will have no problem with Belmont distance and if he goes think he'll run real well.

Can't see no reason why he wouldn't run in Belmont. Super --- Game Winner, Maxiimum Security, Tacitus, Master Fencer.
 

Bigrunner

EOG Master
Game Winner wants to run outside, he was projected to get the wide trip with Rosario up and he got it.

Yes we know that but nobody expected him to be 2nd to last 40 lengths back. Not Game Winner's game. IMO he ran the best race. And like someone said earlier, he had the fastest average time per distance?
 

ChiTownJoe

EOG Dedicated
Yes we know that but nobody expected him to be 2nd to last 40 lengths back. Not Game Winner's game. IMO he ran the best race. And like someone said earlier, he had the fastest time average time per distance?

Rumor was Baffert liked Improbable if sloppy, and GW if fast. Not sure why as GW had high Tomlinson # for the slop.
 

BenoitPaire2

EOG Veteran
Servis trains a lot of claiming horses. You aren't going to train a 6 year old ouchy claimer the same way you would a top level 3 year old. Connections should try to find the best place to maximize value. The Preakness field is coming up weak. Country House is not going. From what I've heard, only Improbable and War of Will are likely to go from the Derby field. Maybe Game Winner but that hasn't been confirmed. And Mr. Money from the Pat Day Mile. You only get one chance to run in a Triple Crown race. They have a sharp horse; the only people West and Servis are punishing is themselves by not running.


Servis trains? He’s more of a pharmacist to me.


And game winner isn’t going to Preakness. Don’t be surprised if you hear about him being sore in the next few days........
 

Ray Luca

EOG Master
In the biggest race of the year you punish bettors to the maximum possible extent when the best horse won and the horse he interfered with wasn't going to win the race.

I

So anything goes in the big races?

Nobody can make that call about WOW after he was smacked around like that and lost all FORWARD momentum. He was full of run the entire race and the entire week training...right up to the point of interference.
 

Ray Luca

EOG Master
And why does everyone think Maximum Security was so great ... had big breather backstretch...had EVERYTHING go his way....no mud kicked in his face.

I dunno maybe I'm just getting old and unwise
 

mr merlin

EOG Master
And why does everyone think Maximum Security was so great ... had big breather backstretch...had EVERYTHING go his way....no mud kicked in his face.

I dunno maybe I'm just getting old and unwise
Probably because he won by a big margin!

Another possibility is because he's never lost a race?
 

mr merlin

EOG Master
His brother's horse Smarty Jones was damned good. But I don't think John Servis is nearly as shady as his brother.
I'm a little curious about some of you that hate that guy(servis)? Are you guys saying that if it wasn't for him, horse racing would be clean as a whistle?
 

mr merlin

EOG Master
Nope, dirty dirty dirty sport. The small time barns don’t stand a chance.
Exactly, so why the silly targeted smears of one trainer? Is baffert a really clean trainer, I doubt it.

The whole sport is corrupt, smearing Servis is like smearing just one NCAA football team for recruiting (and other) violations. They all do it.
 
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