Predict the FINAL NUMBER of confirmed Coronavirus cases/deaths in the U.S. (Predictions ONLY)

ejd_5277

EOG Dedicated
#1
Gotta do something to spice things up around here...


I will donate $200 to the charity of the winner's choice.


RULES:

This will be graded and a winner will be declared ON THE DAY THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION NO LONGER CONSIDERS COVID-19 A GLOBAL PANDEMIC. No time limit.

Grading formula is (difference between prediction and actual number of cases) + (difference between prediction and actual number of deaths x 25))

As an example, let's say you predict 1,000,000 cases and 10,000 deaths,

Actual number comes in at 1,150,000 cases and 12,000 deaths.

Your score would be 150,000 + (2,000 x 25) for a total final score of 200,000.

the poster with the lowest score is declared the winner.

You are NOT ALLOWED TO POST THE EXACT SAME SET OF NUMBERS AS A PREVIOUS POSTER.

In the very unlikely event of a tie, the poster closest on the number of cases will be declared the winner. Second tiebreak is closest on number of deaths.

If ComptrBob is willing, I will have him verify all results.
 
Last edited:
#15
I'm imposing an entry deadline of Wednesday, March 19 at 11:59 PM U.S. Central Daylight Time. That way no one can sandbag this with a last-second guess.
 
#18
Gotta do something to spice things up around here...


I will donate $200 to the charity of the winner's choice.


RULES:

This will be graded and a winner will be declared ON THE DAY THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION NO LONGER CONSIDERS COVID-19 A GLOBAL PANDEMIC. No time limit.

Grading formula is (difference between prediction and actual number of cases) + (difference between prediction and actual number of deaths x 25))

As an example, let's say you predict 1,000,000 cases and 10,000 deaths,

Actual number comes in at 1,150,000 cases and 12,000 deaths.

Your score would be 150,000 + (2,000 x 25) for a total final score of 200,000.

the poster with the lowest score is declared the winner.

You are NOT ALLOWED TO POST THE EXACT SAME SET OF NUMBERS AS A PREVIOUS POSTER.

In the very unlikely event of a tie, the poster closest on the number of cases will be declared the winner. Second tiebreak is closest on number of deaths.

If ComptrBob is willing, I will have him verify all results.
WHO will never close the case, YOU need to put an end date on it.
 
#21
U.S., and, personally, I like it just the way it is, tied to WHO downgrading their characterization from a pandemic.

Over and above the fact that folks already have made calls based upon the announced parameters. Shouldn't be changing the parameters now.
 
#23
It's in the subject line:
Predict the FINAL NUMBER of confirmed Coronavirus cases/deaths in the U.S. (Predictions ONLY. Keep all other discussion in the other thread)
 
#28
Valid entries so far:

EJD 550,000/7,500
Squarepants 90,000/2,500
FairWarning: 350,000/27,000
ViejoDinosaur: 500,000/5,500
puckhandler: 14,000,000/1,200,000
 
#29
Alright, I'll more or less give you that one, Rail . . . although I did look at the whole post including the subject line or thread title when I made my call.
 
#35
Valid entries so far:

EJD 550,000/7,500
Squarepants 90,000/2,500
FairWarning: 350,000/27,000
ViejoDinosaur: 500,000/5,500
puckhandler: 14,000,000/1,200,000
Sleepy: 300,000/3,200
Railbird: 106,235/1,284
 
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