Predict the FINAL NUMBER of confirmed Coronavirus cases/deaths in the U.S. (Predictions ONLY)

Dell Dude

Dell Dude

EOG Master
clevfan of Major Wager on March 7

clevfan said:
I’m in Manatee Co Florida which is where one of the 2 cases in the state started last week...it’s a total cluster fck here in regards on how to handle the outbreak. My next door neighbor went to ER yesterday because she’s been ill all week, (dr office told her they wouldn’t see her with her symptoms and to go to ER), anyhow, they did X-rays, IV, etc and said she has pneumonia...she wanted tested to coronavirus...guess what...no test kids available...so they sent her home and said to quarantine herself for 2 weeks
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clevfan said:
You guys just wait, you will see how f’ing serious this stuff is
Click to expand...
 
kane

kane

EOG master
Dell, since your initial death prediction was way low, what number would you guess right now?
 
Dell Dude

Dell Dude

EOG Master
Positives were 89 on 3/1. 12 days later it was 2204

Jerry Kills were 87 on 3/16. Today is 12 days later and it's 2227.
 
Dell Dude

Dell Dude

EOG Master
Lady Russia shows Brian Stelter in place doesn't work. Vladdy avoided initial wave. Looked like they would be spared? Nope. Starting to take off just like everywhere else. Turn those machines back on while avoiding all unnecessary social contact. Sick and vulnerable should quarantine. Can do both.
 
Squarepants

Squarepants

2
Typically track instead football contest entries here in the offseason.

Not a typical offseason, by any stretch.

UNITED STATES
125,099 CONFIRMED CASES
2,238 DEATHS
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
I'm sure this has been addressed, but rather than read thru 265 posts, what is the criteria for the end of the contest? It could go away this summer and return in the fall. In fact, I think most are expecting that.
 
Squarepants

Squarepants

2
It's the World Health Organization (WHO) standing down from their global pandemic rating/assessment or whatever you want to call it.

For example, my low wager had been premised on WHO being as early with a standdown from that label as they were late to use it, likely well before the actual end of the epidemic, including later waves.

Doesn't look like my premise is holding up, but WHO receding from the global pandemic label is the endpoint that determines the winning wager.
 
V

Valuist

EOG Master
The media is either too stupid or lazy to do the math, but based on the caseload numbers Dell Dude listed in post 259, the rate of increase is clearly coming down. I'll do the work that the media should've been doing. This is the rate of increase over the previous day:

March 15: 24%
March 16: 27%
March 17: 37%
March 18: 43%
March 19: 51%
March 20: 42%
March 21: 37%
March 22: 33%
March 23: 24%
March 24: 24%
March 25: 23%
March 26: 26%
March 27: 23%
March 28: 19.5%

Obviously the denominator is getting bigger each day, so it would be normal to expect some dropoff.
 
Dell Dude

Dell Dude

EOG Master
Lady Russia shows Brian Stelter in place doesn't work. Putin is late to the corona party but their #'s are starting to take off. Nothing is going to stop it from running the complete race.
 
C

ComptrBob

EOG Master
Squarepants into the lead, may only last 3-4 days the way the numbers are adding up. Sleepy will overtake with around 190,000 cases and 3,050 dead.

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Squarepants

Squarepants

2
Running late again on the roughly midday D-o-D comparison, focusing on the bottom number:

UNITED STATES
138,908 CONFIRMED CASES
2,438 DEATHS (+474)

Recapping in reverse chrono: +474 (24.1%) +487 (32.97%) +341 (32.2%) +258 (+14.7%) +225 (+55.2%) +145 (+29.5%) +112
 
Dell Dude

Dell Dude

EOG Master
I assume those positives being quarantined so good it's going up even if it's bad. We want to know who has it so the spreading will stop. Still haven't seen the payoff with the leveling of the George Conway curve.
 
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