Did you not see my post 268? I took the case numbers from YOUR post. The curve IS flattening. The rate of increase in cases is falling. Not the cases, but the rate of increase of cases.
Predict the FINAL NUMBER of confirmed Coronavirus cases/deaths in the U.S. (Predictions ONLY)
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Did you not see my post 268? I took the case numbers from YOUR post. The curve IS flattening. The rate of increase in cases is falling. Not the cases, but the rate of increase of cases.
Dell Dude
EOG Master
It's come down from the 51% Spike Lee but you can't say it has come down from 24% on March 15
In the national data of cases and deaths, we are seeing the superposition of many municipalities' bell shaped curves, some of the slower developing may get flattened more than the earlier outbreaks like Washington, but not necessarily.
The first key element to look for is the slope (first derivative) of the curve to stop increasing. This is the same as saying the acceleration (second derivate) stops, i.e. goes to zero and then negative.
The first key element to look for is the slope (first derivative) of the curve to stop increasing. This is the same as saying the acceleration (second derivate) stops, i.e. goes to zero and then negative.
It's down from the peak. It clearly was rising, peaked, and has been falling.
I don't think any of us are going to be betting horses in the near future. I can't imagine many still running. Somehow SA was shut down yet Golden Gate can still operate? Same ownership with same state rules?
Yep, differnet counties, funny situation, LA County shut down SA.
mr merlin
EOG Master
Why should they shut down? it's not going to help anything.
I would guess the county officials have no idea what they are doing.
The horses at SA are already housed there as well as about 750 staff that feed, care for, and exercise the horses. Racing only adds maybe 20 starters, 20 jockeys, the 3 stewards, and a few others like maintenance, camera crew, and security. There are several close situations like at the start where the jockey and starter assistants are close, but this can be mitigated.
AFAIK, no one at SA has tested positive. Obviously, GG, Oaklawn, Gulfstream park, and Tampa Bay Downs are all operating without fan attendance.
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This is part of the quandry one faces with what's going to be available in a week down the line. Over and above supply-chain disruptions and panic-buying demand, it's difficult to forecast with three layers of government in any given location -- with varying levels of sense or the absence thereof -- what businesses, facilities, etc., etc. will be deemed essential/nonessential and/or shut down and/or experience availability issues due to staff exposure.
E.g., the liquor store around the corner has been a good source of bottled water and some other sundries, but whether it might be shut down (as has been the case with other more purely liquor stores) remains a day-by-day question.
E.g., the liquor store around the corner has been a good source of bottled water and some other sundries, but whether it might be shut down (as has been the case with other more purely liquor stores) remains a day-by-day question.
mr merlin
EOG Master
Exactly why we need true leaders in charge, not frauds that just mimic what others do. Someone with the intelligence and common sense to say "whoa", when some underling comes up with a dumb idea that wont really contribute anything to the solution.
Further, I should have more precisely referred to the data as a set of finite differences, they are obviously constructed daily. The finite 2nd derivative f''(x) can be calculated as (f(x+d) - 2*f(x)+ f(x-d))/d^^2 +smaller order terms O(d^^2) where d is one day and f(x) describes the data set. We can set d = 1 for convenience. In the chart of cases below, we see a few dips on Mar 10 and 22 probably due to sampling, but cases are accelerating. Once we see several days of consecutive negative acceleration days we may have seen the first "bending" of the national curve.
Chi_Archie
EOG Veteran
the Bread lines will stretch very long with 6 feet in between each starving person
Well past my 2500 on the bottom number now (along with my way undershooting the case count), and the fat lady (or whatever PC designation you like) hasn't even left her hotel room for the opera house yet:
UNITED STATES
144,410 CONFIRMED CASES
2,600 DEATHS
UNITED STATES
144,410 CONFIRMED CASES
2,600 DEATHS
Chi_Archie
EOG Veteran
trump fell for it hook line and sinker, and now he is propogating it as well
"The better you do, the faster this whole nightmare will end," the President said Sunday at a White House news conference. He said he would be finalizing a new plan and strategy early this week and announcing the details on Tuesday.
Did someone say Breaking Bad? Anyone in this thread who has never seen the show?
Me. I don't follow a lot of shows, even some good shows recommended by friends.
It's the sedentary activity induced by all those shows. It's a constant struggle between day-job work and handicapping to get off one's butt. I sometimes record some shows when I'm tempted but still don't watch them. Westworld is the only one I'm recording and actually following now.
kane
EOG master
I wish I could take a pill that would wipe out my entire memory of that show, just so I can have the pleasure of watching it for the first time again. Number 1 on my Mt Rushmore of TV shows, best thing I've ever seen on TV, Bryan Cranston's acting was some of the best in history, and I don't think I'm being hyperbolic in that statement
kane
EOG master
Do yourself a favor and start watching it immediately, trust me
I realize we have another thread for shows but if you want a binge of a lifetime it’s on Netflix-. Perfect escape from current situation. Be well, Be healthy
Thanks, Heisenberg (a name which always causes me uncertainty, just as a matter of principle, lol). But, yeah, I'm teleworking, not furloughed; and I have a gajillion additional things also to do, including working out at home. So there's really nothing to escape from for me, as my days of course are impacted, but still substantially the same as before. Even when I was retired, I didn't sit around drinking beer and watching Ellen, wondering what to do, what to do. But, yes, a binge-watchers dream these days.
Haha-I understand the uncertainty with the name. You might not be aware but the main character in Breaking Bad used Heisenberg as his alter ego/alias at times. With my gym closed I’ve been relegated to working out at home as well. Started doing aerobics videos with YouTube on my smart TV. Never done aerobics before in my life and after the first week I’m loving it.
. . . nothing like exercise endorphins to adjust your world view . . . well, that's legal and/or doesn't have long term adverse side-effects anyway, or, well . . .
Time for that midday day-over-day rough tracking:
UNITED STATES
156,690 CONFIRMED CASES
2,870 DEATHS (+432)
Recapping in reverse chrono: + 432 (17.7%) +474 (24.1%) +487 (32.97%) +341 (32.2%) +258 (+14.7%) +225 (+55.2%) +145 (+29.5%) +112
Time for that midday day-over-day rough tracking:
UNITED STATES
156,690 CONFIRMED CASES
2,870 DEATHS (+432)
Recapping in reverse chrono: + 432 (17.7%) +474 (24.1%) +487 (32.97%) +341 (32.2%) +258 (+14.7%) +225 (+55.2%) +145 (+29.5%) +112
Cresting the 3000 mark, but somewhat similar to the stock market on the way up, these 1000-level milestones will tend to zip by as that becomes a smaller percentage of the overall numbers.
UNITED STATES
163,183 CONFIRMED CASES
3,146 DEATHS
UNITED STATES
163,183 CONFIRMED CASES
3,146 DEATHS
This may be close to putting Sleepy in the lead, with my tenure at the top being exceedingly brief.
Birx said this morning that 100K to 200K USA covid 19 deaths are best case scenerio
mr merlin
EOG Master
That's a good number if we can keep it that low.
SlipperyPete
EOG Dedicated
I dont think Texas updated fully yet. Only 98 cases for the day???
Illinois's is too low as well
Illinois's is too low as well