Predict the FINAL NUMBER of confirmed Coronavirus cases/deaths in the U.S. (Predictions ONLY)

ejd_5277

EOG Dedicated
Gotta do something to spice things up around here...


I will donate $200 to the charity of the winner's choice.


RULES:

This will be graded and a winner will be declared ON THE DAY THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION NO LONGER CONSIDERS COVID-19 A GLOBAL PANDEMIC. No time limit.

Grading formula is (difference between prediction and actual number of cases) + (difference between prediction and actual number of deaths x 25))

As an example, let's say you predict 1,000,000 cases and 10,000 deaths,

Actual number comes in at 1,150,000 cases and 12,000 deaths.

Your score would be 150,000 + (2,000 x 25) for a total final score of 200,000.

the poster with the lowest score is declared the winner.

You are NOT ALLOWED TO POST THE EXACT SAME SET OF NUMBERS AS A PREVIOUS POSTER.

In the very unlikely event of a tie, the poster closest on the number of cases will be declared the winner. Second tiebreak is closest on number of deaths.

If ComptrBob is willing, I will have him verify all results.
 
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jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
Read the rules, Jimmy. There will be a "final number" for the purposes of this contest.
I read the rules ejd. My message is talking in terms of reality and sensitivity. That's why I'm passing on guessing an utterly absurd outcome.
 
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Viejo Dinosaur

EOG Master
500,000 cases and 5500 deaths.....awful numbers for those who said it was no worse than the common cold and it was just a hoax...
 

ejd_5277

EOG Dedicated
Valid entries so far:

EJD 550,000/7,500
Squarepants 90,000/2,500
FairWarning: 350,000/27,000
ViejoDinosaur: 500,000/5,500
 

ejd_5277

EOG Dedicated
I'm imposing an entry deadline of Wednesday, March 19 at 11:59 PM U.S. Central Daylight Time. That way no one can sandbag this with a last-second guess.
 

puckhandler

EOG Dedicated
14 million cases, 1.2 million deaths
Too many Americans not taking Corona serious. Spanish Flu killed 650000 Americans
 

railbird

EOG Master
Gotta do something to spice things up around here...


I will donate $200 to the charity of the winner's choice.


RULES:

This will be graded and a winner will be declared ON THE DAY THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION NO LONGER CONSIDERS COVID-19 A GLOBAL PANDEMIC. No time limit.

Grading formula is (difference between prediction and actual number of cases) + (difference between prediction and actual number of deaths x 25))

As an example, let's say you predict 1,000,000 cases and 10,000 deaths,

Actual number comes in at 1,150,000 cases and 12,000 deaths.

Your score would be 150,000 + (2,000 x 25) for a total final score of 200,000.

the poster with the lowest score is declared the winner.

You are NOT ALLOWED TO POST THE EXACT SAME SET OF NUMBERS AS A PREVIOUS POSTER.

In the very unlikely event of a tie, the poster closest on the number of cases will be declared the winner. Second tiebreak is closest on number of deaths.

If ComptrBob is willing, I will have him verify all results.

WHO will never close the case, YOU need to put an end date on it.
 
U.S., and, personally, I like it just the way it is, tied to WHO downgrading their characterization from a pandemic.

Over and above the fact that folks already have made calls based upon the announced parameters. Shouldn't be changing the parameters now.
 
It's in the subject line:
Predict the FINAL NUMBER of confirmed Coronavirus cases/deaths in the U.S. (Predictions ONLY. Keep all other discussion in the other thread)
 

ejd_5277

EOG Dedicated
Amazing how hard that is for some people who otherwise claim to know everything about everything, isn't it, Square??
 

ejd_5277

EOG Dedicated
Valid entries so far:

EJD 550,000/7,500
Squarepants 90,000/2,500
FairWarning: 350,000/27,000
ViejoDinosaur: 500,000/5,500
puckhandler: 14,000,000/1,200,000
 
Alright, I'll more or less give you that one, Rail . . . although I did look at the whole post including the subject line or thread title when I made my call.
 

railbird

EOG Master
Chinese death toll higher because the Pacific Rim is filled with men that are chain smoking scum. Men get it over women 62-38
 

ejd_5277

EOG Dedicated
Valid entries so far:

EJD 550,000/7,500
Squarepants 90,000/2,500
FairWarning: 350,000/27,000
ViejoDinosaur: 500,000/5,500
puckhandler: 14,000,000/1,200,000
Sleepy: 300,000/3,200
Railbird: 106,235/1,284
 

raycabino

Long Live Wilson!
I'll be like the last bidder on price is right that $1 ups the highest bid (well minus puckhandlers death toll perhaps).
 

MrTop

EOG Master
Simone Goa...says in her report...there could be a Virus II coming.... The report says the virus could last a year
 
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