Premier League - Final Day and Thoughts/Plays

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
The Premier League's final day of the season is Sunday. They do things right: ALL games start at the same time so no one can "scoreboard watch."

I have some thoughts on the games so here they are - all games start @ 7A (PDT) - Lines are Pinny as well as WA. I realize not all have access to some lines/plays - and that includes me. Plays not listed in any order of preference - other than the first one (Games not listed means no real strong thought on them):


(BESTEST BET - BY FAR! ) Palace/Bournemouth O3 -120ish: I played this earlier in the week as part of the EOG BB thread and got it about +115. Both sides sit mid-table and both are assured of playing in the PL in 2019-20. Neither side plays any defense and both sides like to attack. And in the case of Palace - counterattack, too. With both sides assured of PL play for next season I see 2 sides that will just spend the entire game attacking the goal. It won't shock me if we get to at least 3 goals by halftime. I will be shocked if we see less than 4 goals in this game and I look for something along the lines of a 4-3 game.

Manchester City to win by Nil -120: This basically says Man City will win and shut out Brighton. YES! That will happen. Brighton isn't scoring in this game. It might take City until 2h to score but they will score. Brighton will NOT score. If this price was a tad better it would be the BEST BET over the one above but since it is not it is listed below. I look for something along the lines of a 2-0/3-0 City win.

Leicester City +145ish: Thursday Chelsea played in the Europa League Semis - at home. They won. But the game went to PKs meaning it took 120 minutes. Now less than 72 hours later they have to travel to Leicester and play a team that played Monday so they will be better rested. Chelsea has the EL Finals to deal with but that is not for another 10-ish days. I don't see how Chelsea care for this game and even if they did - they don't have the legs for this one.I see them sitting most of the guys who played Thursday and once again, I doubt they really care. Chelsea is guaranteed a T4 spot meaning playing in next season's Champions League which is huge meaning one less reason to care about this game. Leicester is a feisty side and they will come to play in the season finale. I see this one being a pretty easy Leicester win. Let's go for something like 3-1.

Everton +0.5 -120: Much of what I said above about Chelsea ...........ditto for Tottenham. We all saw what happened to them Wednesday, scoring 3 goals in 2h including one "at the death" to draw with Ajax 3-3 but advance to the Champions League Final in 2 weeks. The look on their faces after the game was one of pure exhaustion! Like Chelsea I fail to see how they have anything left for this game. Unlike Chelsea Tottenham has not officially clinched a spot in next year's CL, but they have. They sit 4th, 3 points ahead of Arsenal with an 8 goal GD. There is a 0% chance Arsenal wins, Tottenham loses and that GD gets overtaken. ZERO! We see tired Tottenham legs against an Everton side that is playing well lately. This game will look like it is being played in Quicksand. It will be ugly and boring to watch. This one looks like a: 0-0/1-0/1-1 kind of game

Burnley +0.25 -103ish (You can find some +100 as well as -106 so I took the middle ground): The last time Arsenal won a road game in the PL there were 13 Stars and Stripes on the USA Flag. Gunners played Thursday in Austria and advanced to the Europa League Final. That is huge because the only way Arsenal is playing in the 2019-20 Champions League is by beating Chelsea in the Europa League Final (And they will). As has been stated that game is 10-ish days away so players can be played here but WHY! They will be tired so I sense Arsenal sits (almost) everyone and plays the B-Squad. Now - make no mistake about it - that is factored into the line here (As well as with Tottenham and Chelsea). Playing Burnley, especially AT Burnley, is "Death by 1,000 Paper Cuts." It is no fun at all. They are very highly organized and make it tough for you to develop anything and beat them. This season, though, they have actually scored some goals. Like the game above this one will be boring to watch. This one looks like the kind of game above as far as score line.
 

ChuckyG

EOG Master
Winky, your notes are good, per usual. Will be interesting to see the lineups that come out.

As Final Days go, not much drama...except for right at the top. As u say, this doesn't LOOK like a real tough fixture for ManCity. I do like Mgr Hughton, and he can park the bus.

My only counter is that I feel like EPL teams play the final day pretty honestly. More than other leagues, where it's defense-optional. Players HATE to pick up injury knocks when they're about to head off on holiday.
 

ChuckyG

EOG Master
One last comment on the key game, ManCity at Brighton.

I've listened to Chris Hughton interviews over the years. He's a big believer in building from the back. Their 2 central defenders are very good at clearing out crosses.

They've gone thru scoring slumps. Team strength is central defense + ability to score on set-plays. Don't expect Brighton to score from run of play.

Brighton caused major headaches in recent matches at TOTT and at ARSENAL. They will feel confident after staying up + will give it their all as the spoiler. Strangely, handicap line has come DOWN from +2.5 to +2 in this game...so someone is betting BRIGHTON!
 
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