Racing chalks across America

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Outperformed the track takeout.

I would have guessed a much lower win rate than 38% though short fields help the cause.
 

blueline

EOG Master
actually that was for purses 5k-50k
this is for 5k and up

Favorites 18489 07076 38% 60% 74% 0.84 0.87 0.89
 

blueline

EOG Master
Fld Sz < 5 ---- 49% 77% 93% ----- 0.82 0.88 0.95
Fld Sz 5 ----- 46% 69% 84% ------ 0.85 0.87 0.90
Fld Sz 6 ----- 41% 65% 79% ----- 0.84 0.87 0.90
Fld Sz 7 ------ 39% 61% 75% ------ 0.85 0.88 0.88
Fld Sz 8 ------ 36% 57% 71% ------- 0.85 0.87 0.89
Fld Sz 9 ------- 33% 54% 67% ----- 0.81 0.85 0.86
Fld Sz 10 ------- 33% 52% 66% ----- 0.85 0.88 0.90
Fld Sz 11 -------- 31% 49% 60% ------ 0.85 0.85 0.84
Fld Sz 12 ------- 29% 47% 58% -------- 0.83 0.87 0.86
Fld Sz 13+ ----- 35% 49% 64% ------ 0.93 0.87 0.94
 

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
Favorites in super large fields not so bad. granted 13+ fields are rare

interesting stats
 

blueline

EOG Master
layoff

LAY 2-10 ---- 00937 00401 ----- 43% 66% 80% ----- 0.91 0.92 0.93
LAY 11-20 ----- 05135 02026 ---- 39% 61% 76% --- 0.86 0.87 0.89
LAY 21-28 ---- 04524 01733 ---- 38% 60% 74% --- 0.85 0.87 0.89
LAY 29-65 ---- 05297 01956 ---- 37% 59% 73% ---- 0.80 0.86 0.88
LAY 66-165 ---- 01167 00414 ---- 35% 56% 71% ---- 0.78 0.82 0.87
LAY 166-999 ----- 00927 00380 ---- 41% 61% 72% ---- 0.94 0.92 0.90
 

michael777

EOG Dedicated
I have bet horses virtually everyday and I have never saw so many favorites win as they have the last 3 years,harness,T Bred,or Quarter Horse,no matter
 

trytrytry

All I do is trytrytry
I think what is happening is more of the somewhat in the old days hidden 2nd favorites with big FIGs are now being bet as Favorites and winning also.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
I love betting short-priced overlays at the racetrack.

Hard to find but when you're right, it feels like an easy game.

Especially as a dedicated sports bettor accustomed to risking a dollar to win 91 cents.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Not necessarily above the morning-line price but usually betting against an odds-on favorite with a solid second or third choice.

A good example: Forever Unbridled nailed Songbird in deep stretch to win by a neck in the 2017 Personal Ensign Stakes at Saratoga.

If memory serves, Forever Unbridled closed at odds of 2/1 compared to the 1/5 price on Songbird.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
2018 Del Mar Futurity

Second choice Game Winner defeated odds-on favorite Roadster with plenty of wagering support for the winner in the final three minutes of wagering.

Baffert trained both horses.

Interesting to note: Game Winner took more money than Roadster in final 60 seconds of wagering despite Roadster closing at odds of 7/10.

Game Winner paid $5.20 to win.
 
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