Re: RAs Totals record thus faR (bERNIE!)
Usually when I keep track of my record, I use the line I got the game at - or in his case, the # he released the game at. Not sure why this is so hard for people to understand.
Most people who bet themselves use the number they bet at, that isnt the point.
The point is if he s releasing games at a certain number, and the line (he admits) moves then what? That is going to effect results of people. If you asked 10 people who have his service what their results are I would bet that half them wouldnt have the same results he has. And maybe as many as 2 would have a negative result when he is actually showing a positive one. So then what?
That is why I say he is in a semi unique situation where his plays can actually move a market. Either by books getting the plays and know he has enough clients who can move enough money to make a difference so they move the preemptively, or 'best' case he has enough clients who bet enough to move the line on their own. Either way if the lines moves and a certain portion of players arent getting those lines then his record is not as it appears.
COMPARATIVELY speaking sure he goes above and beyond, but really what does he have to compete with? But it still inst completely unbiased.
Like I say if he has a 3-5% chance of having games move off a winner to a loser then his results will reflect that. So his +145 or whatever nits for his 56% or whatever 'only' need 60-70 (depending on how their weighted) to lose all 145 units of profit, if they all lose, pushes will just be less profit obviously. now 60-70 in a 2200 game sample is a pretty big amount, but not impossible to obtain especially in NCAA hoops totals. But if the lines moves 2-3% of the time from a winner to a loser that is a small margin for 'error'.
Thats why all the widely available talk and other tout speak is all nonsense. A line is a line and whatever a particular bettor got is what they got, widely available is just some term I think fezzik invented trying to justify his horrendous results. At the very least the worst line available should always be the grading point for a tout. That way they can say no matter what the number their results were xxxxx. So if they can put up numbers that win against the worst number available then no critic can have anything to point to.
That is why I say it would be interesting to see what the end results would be in this case. Record versus number play was released at, what it was against best available, 'widely available' and worst available. Or have a caveat in the play that say DO NOT PLAY THIS IF IT MOVE TO xxx. Then if a person can show enough evidence that the plays moved too much enough of the time outside the suggested parameters they get a free portion of time.
We can debate this all day and night, but touts deal second hand info, end of story. regardless of how they want to word it. And in this day and age still, second hand info isnt worth all that much. But 'value' is always in the eye of the beholder I guess. And that is why touts still can get clients.
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