sunday stuff

dinkenson

EOG Dedicated
#1
looks like a day of rest....would like ottawa with anderson......and would play detroit if bhawks get bet, but these are marginal at best.....wow new orleans is more then 3 at frisco...over reaction to one half of football
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#2
Re: sunday stuff

I think the side and total are correlated in the NO-SF playoff game.

If Saints, then over.

If 49ers, then under.

Play the game at 13-5, not 11-10.

Then again, what do I know?

I haven't had a winner in two weeks.
 
#3
Re: sunday stuff

I agree JK....New Orleans coach shows no mercy.....

But I guarantee New Orleans will have to punt in this game....unlike the Lion blowout...
 
#4
Re: sunday stuff

This is a note I copied from totals guy charliej last year. The situation comes up in the Ottawa / Philly game tonight. Has to do with home and home games where the first game goes under, like it did here...the theory says to play the 2nd game over...here is the theory:

When two teams play a rare home and home series ( with no rest between games) and the first game goes UNDER the total, play the second matchup OVER the total.

Unlike many trends and systems, this scheduling dynamic makes sense. Since the first game was lower scoring, the matchup was most likely a physical, tight checking contest.Most probably, you will get either a tired goalie or a backup in goal for the second of back-to-back contests. In addition, playing tough defense requires a lot of energy . Playing with tired legs can result in more grabbing (i.e. a penalty) versus skating in proper position. Hockey is a collision sport. Players remember who elbowed them or put a stick in their ribs last night. Since there are very few sissies in hockey, there will be an immediate opportunity to gain retribution in tonight's contest. The added testosterone level should lead to more power play opportunities. Finally, both teams have an immediate recall of what their opponent did to slow them down last night. Players may adjust their shot on a goalie who was protecting the five-hole. They know how the opposing team defended the passing lanes for power play opportunites and will adjust their strategy.

Even though this bet may lose on tonight's contest, you may want to watch for this rare scheduling dynamic as the season progresses. Since this is one of the few trends or systems that makes sense, it should prove to be profitable in the future.
 

dogball

EOG Dedicated
#7
Re: sunday stuff

I think the side and total are correlated in the NO-SF playoff game.

If Saints, then over.

If 49ers, then under.

Play the game at 13-5, not 11-10.

Then again, what do I know?

I haven't had a winner in two weeks.

Right concept but i would not implement. Either team could be baited into the others style
I really like SF plus the points
Ive done well with both these teams most of season
Plus four would be huge for me, 3 is something i feel very good about
 

Ray Luca

EOG Dedicated
#8
Re: sunday stuff

Frisco plays good D and ball control. The game is outside where the weather could be a factor. Although the weather pattern is unusually warm and dry over US and Europe due to the jet stream configuration, a storm will deveolop over texas next week bringing heavy rains from eastern texas and snow to northern NE. Cold air will be pulled in after that.

side note...always loved weather
 

tripp

EOG Master
#9
Re: sunday stuff

absolutely right about the overreaction. sf should be laying 3, not getting it

new orleans doesnt overly impress me. defense is very poor and that offense doesnt run near as well outside of the superdome.

also huge difference going from a team that tackles like high schoolers to maybe the best defense in the nfl. sf has underrated talent on offnse as well with crabtree turning into the star we always thought hed be, vernon davis already a proven star, gore running well this year and a drastically improved alex smith that gets nowhere near the credit he deserves.
 

munson15

I want winners...
#10
Re: sunday stuff

This is a hockey thread, although Dink introduced the no/SF game into the discussion. Please clarify on Ottawa and Detroit.:cheers

p.s. thanks for the great card yesterday, even if you were lukewarm on most of the picks!:btj:
 

JHU Dad

EOG Dedicated
#11
Re: sunday stuff

Dinky seems to win at the same rate whether he's lukewarm on his picks or gung-ho. This is not an indictment, rather, a compliment.
 
#13
Re: sunday stuff

yesterdays flyer game was anything but tight checking but i lean to the over as i think both backups will play.....lean to detroit and columbus as "wrong " sides with right lines, my weakest subset of playtypes
 
#16
Re: sunday stuff

sorry for the off day munson...altho i did say i would like ottawa if anderson played and he did, so maybe it was 3 out of 4, a more normal result
 

dogball

EOG Dedicated
#17
Re: sunday stuff

Right concept but i would not implement. Either team could be baited into the others style
I really like SF plus the points
Ive done well with both these teams most of season
Plus four would be huge for me, 3 is something i feel very good about

Little bragging
 
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