Super Bowl Matchup...

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
NO is better than GB but not in the cold weather in GB.

Maybe

But if Da Bears beat Green Bay (and it could happen) and the Saints and Seahawks win - Saints are the #1 seed and now they get the bye and only have to play 2 games in a dome stadium to make the SB. And they also avoid having to beat Green Bay AND Seattle - just OR.

I do think the Saints can go to GB and win. Even is the weather is like what we saw Sunday. Then again I am not objective at all since I have a Saints +600ish ticket to win the NFC made before the season began.
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
Packers vs Colts

Kinda brave since right now the Colts are not in the playoffs. I do think they make it when Miami loses to the Bills but right now the Colts are not even invited to the dance. The biggest issue I see is if they get the 7-seed I just can't see Rivers going to Buffalo and winning a game in early January. The Bills D would eat him alive and the cold weather would get to him. Taylor would have to run for 150+ for them to have any chance
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
Maybe

But if Da Bears beat Green Bay (and it could happen) and the Saints and Seahawks win - Saints are the #1 seed and now they get the bye and only have to play 2 games in a dome stadium to make the SB. And they also avoid having to beat Green Bay AND Seattle - just OR.

I do think the Saints can go to GB and win. Even is the weather is like what we saw Sunday. Then again I am not objective at all since I have a Saints +600ish ticket to win the NFC made before the season began.
Bears will fool you too. They are not beating GB.

Kind of interesting that Big Ben called all of the plays in the 2H of the Colts game and the offense came alive. Pitt could be a good sleeper.
 

kane

EOG master
Bears will fool you too. They are not beating GB.

Kind of interesting that Big Ben called all of the plays in the 2H of the Colts game and the offense came alive. Pitt could be a good sleeper.

Everyone keeps saying how Buffalo is the only team that could beat KC, I think the Steelers are the dangerous team, their defense is better than the Bills, and this isn't Ben's first rodeo, I know Josh Allen has been great this year, but can he go into KC and beat Mahomes and the Chiefs? Maybe, but I think the Steelers would have a better shot based on Ben's experience and their defense
 
I don't think going into anywhere is going to be that big a challenge this year. If I were the Chiefs, I think I'd rather have a road game in a dome than a home game in the often inclement KC weather.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
GB v KC

Last Sunday in the Green Bay snow, Aaron Rodgers threw as many touchdown passes (4) as he did incompletions.

If the NFC goes through Titletown...
 

FairWarning

Bells Beer Connoisseur
I just have a feeling the Steelers get in, and let's pair them with the Saints
Pitt is really hurting on rush D. What helps them is Buffalo and KC may not exploit it. I do like that Buffalo is the flavor of the month.
 

choslamshe

EOG Master
I love the mix of teams still in it after Wildcard Weekend. Browns dual rush attack, Lamar gets his shot, ageless wonders Tom vs. Drew, and the unstoppable Packers offense....all still wrapped around the powerhouse Chiefs.

I think the Saints go down this week and it becomes glaring again how they need to move on from Drew quickly. They have playmakers all over the field and its rare for a Saints defence to be playing at the same level as their offense. This team doesn't have a huge window and their QB play might be their weakest link now.
 

DotPark

EOG Addicted
Love this bet: YES
Will the Kansas City Chiefs play the Green Bay Packers in Super Bowl LV?
Chiefs vs Packers +300
Any Other Result -450
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Not our best work.

What is it about short NFL home favorites that is so alluring?

Recreational gamblers stick to these home favorites like white on rice.
 
Not our best work.

What is it about short NFL home favorites that is so alluring?

Recreational gamblers stick to these home favorites like white on rice.

Don't get confused by randomness. Average bettors are betting based on last week's results in the NFL which is insanity. What it the Packers go for it and score? What if the Saints don't commit all those turnovers against the Bucs? What if the Browns went for it and made it? What if the Steelers convert the 2, go on to win week 17 and play someone else? Your head can spin thinking of all the coin flips that went one way so average bettors just treat those coin flips as some certain truth when it was just a near 50/50 decision.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
No doubt, WildBill.

Randomness is a big factor in all sports.

My point about short home favorites in the NFL: The betting public historically gravitates to the favored side.

Here's one of my favorite market angles: When an NFL home favorite opens a 2.5-point favorite, never touches 3, but instead money shows for the underdog to lower the point spread to 2 or 1.5 or 1.

The sharpest gamblers are taking 2.5 points, not laying it.

The average Joe lays the short favorite (-2.5) a lot more than he takes the small dog (+2.5).

Thoughts?
 
The sharpest gamblers are taking the points 70-80% of the time in the NFL no matter the spread. If a sharp sees a 1-2.5 point favorite that he likes he's probably going to lay the money line instead of the spread because of the factor you mention. Probably a good inefficiency in the market, lots of amateurs will say 2.5 points never matters on a dog I'm going to take the plus moneyline or lay the points. So taking the points on the dog or laying the moneyline on the favorite probably yields some value almost every time.

If you like the Bucs to win outright you most definitely want your ML bet in by now. Unless the line creeps up for some news, that's 80% likely to be lower by game time. And it will almost always end up short compared to a regular season money line. I see -170/+150 at SuperBook right now, probably a fair proxy number. I'd guess that will be like -150/+130 by game time even if the spread holds at 3. At least that's what happened at about 90% of the SBs before.
 
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