Realize that a handicapper doesn't expect to win every bet he makes -- they just bet where they think value lies, and I think it lies here:
St. Louis to win the World Series +1200 (Intertops) for 1 unit
Going to take 1 of the 3 units I won this year on MLB Props and lay it on this longshot -- here's my reasoning:
Carpenter is the better pitcher tonight, no doubting that. Has put up better #'s in the regular season then Pettitte, and better #'s in the playoffs then Pettitte. There's a reason Cards are favored tonight on the road.
If Carp wins tonight, this game heads back to St. Louis, essentially where a 7 game series should be -- the underdog having won 3 games after having 3 home games, and the favorite having won 2 games after having 2 home games (obviously not won in that order, but you get the point). The series then heads back to St. Louis for 2 home games.
Houston's record in St. Louis this year is 3-6, including their playoff win. Keep in mind that 2 of those 3 wins were the last week of the season where the Cardinals had already locked up their playoff spot.
Houston will have the pitching advantage in Games 6 and 7, but Cardinals will be playing at home with a better offense.
If Cards do somehow make the World Series, I can either hedge them out, or stick with them as they will likely be the favorite against the White Sox.
Again, this is a very big longshot, but thats why its handicapping -- its about taking wagers where you think value lies. Chances of it winning are very slim, but the payout is more than it should be in this situation in my opinion.
St. Louis to win the World Series +1200 (Intertops) for 1 unit
Going to take 1 of the 3 units I won this year on MLB Props and lay it on this longshot -- here's my reasoning:
Carpenter is the better pitcher tonight, no doubting that. Has put up better #'s in the regular season then Pettitte, and better #'s in the playoffs then Pettitte. There's a reason Cards are favored tonight on the road.
If Carp wins tonight, this game heads back to St. Louis, essentially where a 7 game series should be -- the underdog having won 3 games after having 3 home games, and the favorite having won 2 games after having 2 home games (obviously not won in that order, but you get the point). The series then heads back to St. Louis for 2 home games.
Houston's record in St. Louis this year is 3-6, including their playoff win. Keep in mind that 2 of those 3 wins were the last week of the season where the Cardinals had already locked up their playoff spot.
Houston will have the pitching advantage in Games 6 and 7, but Cardinals will be playing at home with a better offense.
If Cards do somehow make the World Series, I can either hedge them out, or stick with them as they will likely be the favorite against the White Sox.
Again, this is a very big longshot, but thats why its handicapping -- its about taking wagers where you think value lies. Chances of it winning are very slim, but the payout is more than it should be in this situation in my opinion.
