Even if his reasoning isn't state of the art, I like that he's welcoming the challenge of keeping his "Why Book" in public. He's nervous and he should be, but anyone interested in having handicapping becoming more integrated into sports writing has got to have a tender spot for his effort. This is behind a paywall, but I thought I'd post it here just to say it's there.
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By Ethan Strauss 5h ago
14
So begins the weekly NBA gambling column, an odyssey that can end in a public humiliation.
Sportswriters regularly violate that famous, “Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt,” axiom, but gambling advice takes it to a new level. This process makes one’s errors tangible. It mathematically proves that all your secret knowledge, those courtside pregame conversations, those text exchanges with NBA insiders, in the end, amount to nothing of value.
So why am I doing this?
Because you, dear reader, deserve this truth test. You deserve to know whether I’m a fraud of sorts.
Also, I relish finding out as well. I’d rather know my own limitations than perpetually fear them. Let’s get it all out in the open. Let’s put some (metaphorical) money where my mouth is.
There are other reasons, though. I understand that sports gambling can sometimes be arcane and boring for those who aren’t so inclined to wager. I seek to make this column entertaining for all readers, non-gamblers included. I want the uninitiated to understand that there’s a different, entertaining means of looking at basketball. Discovering the gambling perspective on basketball felt like a new lease on my appreciation of the sport. Perhaps the same could happen for you.
Here’s an example. Just as there might be a mathematical way to prove my fraudulence, players and teams are held to a similar standard. Injuries influence the betting markets, and so we get to see whether a player’s absence really means what the bettors presume. And so we get object lessons in a player’s impact tested against the perception of that impact.
Say you think Kyrie Irving, he of some MVP buzz last year, is an overrated regular-season player. You can cite that the Celtics won a robust 10 of 15 games against the spread after Irving went down last season. Conversely, if you think Steph Curry is an underrated regular-season performer, you can cite how the Warriors beat the spread only 11 times in their 32 Steph-less games last season. The spread offers a more specific measurement than mere wins and losses.
How it works
“What is ‘against the spread’?” you might say if you’re a gambling newbie. Basically, it’s the predicted margin of victory for the favored team. If you bet on that favored team, you’re gambling on it to exceed that margin. If the Warriors are -12 in a game, and you’re betting Warriors, you’re banking on their ability to win by 13 or more. If a lowly team like the Magic are +12, then you’re betting on them to either win, or lose by fewer than 12.
Get it? Got it? Let’s go.
Every week I will make picks in this column, based on Westgate SportsBook lines. For you non-gamblers, there will also be commentary on league trends and relative player value.
Since NBA lines are often only available one day out, there will be betting opportunities during the week that won’t make the column. For those, I will be an idiot daredevil and just declare my picks on Twitter, that shame sewer of social media mediums. All my picks will be counted and tracked in my column. The hope is that I can beat 52 percent, the rate at which one’s gambling profit exceeds what they would shell out in taxes/fees. And no, I will not be gambling actual money on these games. I’m fairly convinced that’s against the rules of my job.
The Strauss Rules
Gambling styles are varied. Tim Kawakami, our fearless leader, advised me, “Take the dogs!” Tim favors choosing underdogs, an approach that has merit in a sports environment where we tend to conflate probability with inevitability. How often were you sure the Warriors were going to pound some lesser team only to see them come out and play in a lackluster manner? As an aside, the Warriors only beat the spread 34 times in their 82 games last season.
I tend to have a different approach from TK, though. For whatever reason, I’m more inclined to choose a favored team than an underdog, if I’ve reason to believe the favored team might really press its advantage that night. Beyond that tendency, I like to pick according to an established rubric.
Here’s the layout:
Name the market inefficiency
I don’t want to pick carelessly, so adhering to this rule keeps me honest. I need to explain why I think I’ve found a market inefficiency that other people missed. This necessity forces me to look for market inefficiencies. Simply put, this rule forces me to think.
Now, obviously, I might be wrong about the market inefficiency I’ve chosen. That can easily happen. But “name it” is a good check against making choices off of gut and then jabbering on about how you’re really “feeling” whatever team.
Less is more
I don’t have opinions on every line and don’t wish to pretend to. Opportunities exist, but aren’t ubiquitous. So we’re selective here, choosing only a few games every week, ones that fit the rubric of, “Name the market inefficiency.”
Coaching matters
If I prefer picking favored teams, I want coaches whom I can trust to not squander their advantage. Also, as the game has advanced strategically, I believe that coaching matters more than ever. It should be noted that Brad Stevens’ Celtics were 50-30-2 against the spread last season.
Defense matters
Defense is half the game, but certainly not half of our game analysis. Defensive players tend to be undervalued, and offense-only players tend to be overvalued. Remember this when notable injuries occur.
Flip-flops vs. Bow ties
From my Warriors gambling column:
Finals-oriented teams can now see the regular season as an exhibition, and so they coast, like a tech billionaire dressing sloppily because he need not put on airs anymore. Sloth is the ultimate power move, as it’s a subtle revelation that there’s a bigger game than what’s happening in this particular room. A bow tie is for the man who wants to be seen as wealthy. Flip-flops are for the man whose wealth is known by all in attendance. For much of the season, the Warriors might as well be playing in flip-flops, metaphorically or otherwise.
A broader version of this rule might be, “Know the motivation.” Does this team care about home-court advantage in the playoffs? Is this team desperately trying to establish itself? Is this team tanking? These are relevant questions when making a selection.
There are more elements to consider. As the non-newbies know, schedule and home court are also factors. I don’t have hard rules for those beyond general awareness. Be cognizant that a team is on a back-to-back, but also understand that the line adjusts for that circumstance.
Anyway, onto the picks.
PHOENIX -1 vs. Dallas, pick placed at 2 p.m. Monday
But the Suns are awful, you say? They fired their general manager, you mention? True, true, but my pick is based on something else. It’s predicated on something that happened last season and continued to linger.
I considered not naming the market inefficiency here because I wanted to keep it under wraps, but you’re paying for this subscription, so I have an obligation. But can we please keep this one secret for now, safely tucked behind the paywall?
OK, here goes. I call it “the China Effect,” that circadian destroying preseason jaunt overseas that the Warriors and Wolves endured last season. I don’t think the betting public properly appreciates how disruptive this excursion is. The Warriors wouldn’t shut up about it. On Saturday, when I asked a Warriors staffer how long it took to recover, he responded, “the playoffs.”
That might be hyperbole, but it’s notable that both the Warriors and Wolves stumbled out of the gate last season. The Warriors opened by losing six of their first seven games against the spread. The Wolves lost four of their first five ATS. Judging by those results, the China Effect lasts until roughly late October. So look out for that.
This season, it’s the Mavericks and Sixers who sojourned out for two preseason games abroad. Perhaps they’re young and spry enough to be impervious, but I’m likely still shorting them for a couple weeks.
BOSTON -4.5 vs. Philadelphia, pick placed at 2 p.m. Monday
Beyond “the China Effect,” I just think the Celtics — especially at home — are better than the Sixers, whose efficiency could be compromised by the incorporation of Markelle Fultz. For now, the Sixers have less shooting than what you’d want from a top-tier team.
All right, those are the picks. Follow me @SherwoodStrauss if you wish to see more. Otherwise, see you next week.
--
By Ethan Strauss 5h ago
14
So begins the weekly NBA gambling column, an odyssey that can end in a public humiliation.
Sportswriters regularly violate that famous, “Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt,” axiom, but gambling advice takes it to a new level. This process makes one’s errors tangible. It mathematically proves that all your secret knowledge, those courtside pregame conversations, those text exchanges with NBA insiders, in the end, amount to nothing of value.
So why am I doing this?
Because you, dear reader, deserve this truth test. You deserve to know whether I’m a fraud of sorts.
Also, I relish finding out as well. I’d rather know my own limitations than perpetually fear them. Let’s get it all out in the open. Let’s put some (metaphorical) money where my mouth is.
There are other reasons, though. I understand that sports gambling can sometimes be arcane and boring for those who aren’t so inclined to wager. I seek to make this column entertaining for all readers, non-gamblers included. I want the uninitiated to understand that there’s a different, entertaining means of looking at basketball. Discovering the gambling perspective on basketball felt like a new lease on my appreciation of the sport. Perhaps the same could happen for you.
Here’s an example. Just as there might be a mathematical way to prove my fraudulence, players and teams are held to a similar standard. Injuries influence the betting markets, and so we get to see whether a player’s absence really means what the bettors presume. And so we get object lessons in a player’s impact tested against the perception of that impact.
Say you think Kyrie Irving, he of some MVP buzz last year, is an overrated regular-season player. You can cite that the Celtics won a robust 10 of 15 games against the spread after Irving went down last season. Conversely, if you think Steph Curry is an underrated regular-season performer, you can cite how the Warriors beat the spread only 11 times in their 32 Steph-less games last season. The spread offers a more specific measurement than mere wins and losses.
How it works
“What is ‘against the spread’?” you might say if you’re a gambling newbie. Basically, it’s the predicted margin of victory for the favored team. If you bet on that favored team, you’re gambling on it to exceed that margin. If the Warriors are -12 in a game, and you’re betting Warriors, you’re banking on their ability to win by 13 or more. If a lowly team like the Magic are +12, then you’re betting on them to either win, or lose by fewer than 12.
Get it? Got it? Let’s go.
Every week I will make picks in this column, based on Westgate SportsBook lines. For you non-gamblers, there will also be commentary on league trends and relative player value.
Since NBA lines are often only available one day out, there will be betting opportunities during the week that won’t make the column. For those, I will be an idiot daredevil and just declare my picks on Twitter, that shame sewer of social media mediums. All my picks will be counted and tracked in my column. The hope is that I can beat 52 percent, the rate at which one’s gambling profit exceeds what they would shell out in taxes/fees. And no, I will not be gambling actual money on these games. I’m fairly convinced that’s against the rules of my job.
The Strauss Rules
Gambling styles are varied. Tim Kawakami, our fearless leader, advised me, “Take the dogs!” Tim favors choosing underdogs, an approach that has merit in a sports environment where we tend to conflate probability with inevitability. How often were you sure the Warriors were going to pound some lesser team only to see them come out and play in a lackluster manner? As an aside, the Warriors only beat the spread 34 times in their 82 games last season.
I tend to have a different approach from TK, though. For whatever reason, I’m more inclined to choose a favored team than an underdog, if I’ve reason to believe the favored team might really press its advantage that night. Beyond that tendency, I like to pick according to an established rubric.
Here’s the layout:
Name the market inefficiency
I don’t want to pick carelessly, so adhering to this rule keeps me honest. I need to explain why I think I’ve found a market inefficiency that other people missed. This necessity forces me to look for market inefficiencies. Simply put, this rule forces me to think.
Now, obviously, I might be wrong about the market inefficiency I’ve chosen. That can easily happen. But “name it” is a good check against making choices off of gut and then jabbering on about how you’re really “feeling” whatever team.
Less is more
I don’t have opinions on every line and don’t wish to pretend to. Opportunities exist, but aren’t ubiquitous. So we’re selective here, choosing only a few games every week, ones that fit the rubric of, “Name the market inefficiency.”
Coaching matters
If I prefer picking favored teams, I want coaches whom I can trust to not squander their advantage. Also, as the game has advanced strategically, I believe that coaching matters more than ever. It should be noted that Brad Stevens’ Celtics were 50-30-2 against the spread last season.
Defense matters
Defense is half the game, but certainly not half of our game analysis. Defensive players tend to be undervalued, and offense-only players tend to be overvalued. Remember this when notable injuries occur.
Flip-flops vs. Bow ties
From my Warriors gambling column:
Finals-oriented teams can now see the regular season as an exhibition, and so they coast, like a tech billionaire dressing sloppily because he need not put on airs anymore. Sloth is the ultimate power move, as it’s a subtle revelation that there’s a bigger game than what’s happening in this particular room. A bow tie is for the man who wants to be seen as wealthy. Flip-flops are for the man whose wealth is known by all in attendance. For much of the season, the Warriors might as well be playing in flip-flops, metaphorically or otherwise.
A broader version of this rule might be, “Know the motivation.” Does this team care about home-court advantage in the playoffs? Is this team desperately trying to establish itself? Is this team tanking? These are relevant questions when making a selection.
There are more elements to consider. As the non-newbies know, schedule and home court are also factors. I don’t have hard rules for those beyond general awareness. Be cognizant that a team is on a back-to-back, but also understand that the line adjusts for that circumstance.
Anyway, onto the picks.
PHOENIX -1 vs. Dallas, pick placed at 2 p.m. Monday
But the Suns are awful, you say? They fired their general manager, you mention? True, true, but my pick is based on something else. It’s predicated on something that happened last season and continued to linger.
I considered not naming the market inefficiency here because I wanted to keep it under wraps, but you’re paying for this subscription, so I have an obligation. But can we please keep this one secret for now, safely tucked behind the paywall?
OK, here goes. I call it “the China Effect,” that circadian destroying preseason jaunt overseas that the Warriors and Wolves endured last season. I don’t think the betting public properly appreciates how disruptive this excursion is. The Warriors wouldn’t shut up about it. On Saturday, when I asked a Warriors staffer how long it took to recover, he responded, “the playoffs.”
That might be hyperbole, but it’s notable that both the Warriors and Wolves stumbled out of the gate last season. The Warriors opened by losing six of their first seven games against the spread. The Wolves lost four of their first five ATS. Judging by those results, the China Effect lasts until roughly late October. So look out for that.
This season, it’s the Mavericks and Sixers who sojourned out for two preseason games abroad. Perhaps they’re young and spry enough to be impervious, but I’m likely still shorting them for a couple weeks.
BOSTON -4.5 vs. Philadelphia, pick placed at 2 p.m. Monday
Beyond “the China Effect,” I just think the Celtics — especially at home — are better than the Sixers, whose efficiency could be compromised by the incorporation of Markelle Fultz. For now, the Sixers have less shooting than what you’d want from a top-tier team.
All right, those are the picks. Follow me @SherwoodStrauss if you wish to see more. Otherwise, see you next week.
