The EOG Octagon (EJD5277 v John Kelly)

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#84
Maybe I’ll catch you in Las Vegas the last week in October.
Been splitting my time between Las Vegas and Costa Rica.

I'll keep you posted as to my whereabouts in late October.

We have a lot of catching up to do.

I never root for Boy Wonder because geniuses don't need any moral support but here's hoping your only daughter matches your son's brilliance.

Great work, Dad.
 
#86
Been splitting my time between Las Vegas and Costa Rica.

I'll keep you posted as to my whereabouts in late October.

We have a lot of catching up to do.

I never root for Boy Wonder because geniuses don't need any moral support but here's hoping your only daughter matches your son's brilliance.

Great work, Dad.
She’s an optometrist and does well. Equally proud of both. Despite their skills,we can
all use a little luck from time to time. Thanks for the kind words.
 
#93
Been splitting my time between Las Vegas and Costa Rica.

I'll keep you posted as to my whereabouts in late October.

We have a lot of catching up to do.

I never root for Boy Wonder because geniuses don't need any moral support but here's hoping your only daughter matches your son's brilliance.

Great work, Dad.
JK...just spent a week in Costa Rica after the horse party at Arlington....right now in Miami headed for South Jersey....Had a great time catching up with my friends in the offshore business....but CR has changed....way too much traffic and begging in the streets....also guys peddling their wares on every street corner and I am not talking tourist stuff....
 
#95
Safe travels, VD.

Let's talk soon.

Sorry to hear about your negative experiences in CR.

Did you see Dave the Bookmaker at Hotel Del Rey?
Yes I did.....they used to have lines out the door for wagering...now he says they are lucky to write a few tickets a day....all the business went to Cocal and the automated kiosks of Cris....and the good experiences always outweigh the bad....
 
Plays #13-#15:

Wednesday August 14, 2019

12:37 PM ET/9:37 AM PT:

962 Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) +135 (Allard/Reid-Foley) @ BetDSI

1:10 PM MT/12:10 PM PT:

951 Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) -103 (Ray/Freeland) @ Pinnacle

7:10 PM ET/4:10 PM PT:

957 Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) -170 (Kershaw/Hernandez) @ William Hill
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
thought this pick was a little lazy
I was happy to be stuck only two points at the half.

But New York has a real issue with playing 40 minutes.

No point guard leads to a lot of turnovers.

Head coach Katie Smith is no good.

Star players rarely make good coaches and that seems to be the case in all sports.

I'll take Birdie's criticism of a "lazy selection" only because I make no excuses after a loss.

Interesting to note: My 10 selections previous to the Liberty loss were not labeled "lazy."
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
A little unusual to have this game have a score in every inning except the 2nd and still go under. Shows how crooked numbers are needed for OVERS.
Good point, Bob.

Sidenote: As a dedicated UNDER bettor, I never sweat the first run of the game (It must be scored at some point), but I always sweat the second run.

Of course, if I have a choice, I want the big home favorite to score the game's first run.

As for yesterday's game at Guaranteed Rate Field, analyst Steve Stone thought the shadows in the early innings caused some discomfort for hitters in the batter's box.

First pitch was scheduled for 3:40 p.m. local time.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Instead of saying JK, I think this pick is a little lazy, before the game starts, he says I thought (past tense) this pick was lazy, after the game is over. This guy even past posts off someone
else’s selection. Can’t make this up guys!
Rail being Rail, Jammer.

But he makes a lot of winning points.

I especially like his negative view of the sports world as it applies to sports wagering.

Most of the participants and commentators are overly positive and avoid harsh criticism.

Gamblers need to fight through the hype and bluster to see the clear picture.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Will be fun to follow.

Here's hoping the Mariners win by a score of 1-0.

Ha.

Note: I never root against fellow gamblers (not in my DNA) but I'm forced to root against EJD here.

Seems like a great guy and a shrewd gambler.
 
JK obviously ahead, but its hardly a lock at this point.

Assuming both have at a 53% win rate and lines mostly between +120 to -130, running a Monte Carlo simulation has JK winning 82% and EJD 18%.

Even increasing the gap by 2 units over the next 5 picks, only increases JK to a 92% chance.

Also EJD has a small "Hail Mary" chance (game theory, that I don't account for) even if he doesn't quickly close the current gap.
 
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