The EOG Octagon (RAILBIRD v John Kelly)

[kane]

That would be fine except this clown posts "yeah" to everyome's posts across this board. I can site a bunch of examples. My point is, what the fuck is the purpose? I mean, if it gets this moron through the day, then, by all means.

Yeah

 

[kane]

Sorry Jammer, I just had to do it

 

[kane]

I've known ZZRoad aka Benny Profane for a long time on these forums, and he definitely marches to the beat of his own drum, but he's a good guy, I'm glad he posts here

 

[ZzyzxRoad]

Yeah

 

[John Kelly]

And one more thing:

Rather than constantly analyzing the odds of probabilities of who needs what to win and what the odds are on each contestant, try a little old school strategy and concentrate on winning the next play you make. Nothing more....nothing less. The rest is just hot air, and sounds like the equivalent of women sitting around in a beauty salon on a Saturday morning.

Almost Alright seemed to use this strategy to maximum effectiveness last month.

Good point, OUCH.

AA needed to win his final four plays in EOG's Grand Challenge and he went 4-for-4, one play at a time.

I believe a not-so-little BIRDIE whispered in his ear for the final play.

 

[parlaynow]

Love the line by rail..no airplanes for you lol
Busing the name of the game

 

[John Kelly]

Birdie delivers a lot of great lines about gambling and handicapping.

Here's one of my favorites: Think positive about your gambling and think negative in your handicapping process.

Works real well in college sports because the vast majority of coverage is overly positive.

Broadcasters and journalists are hesitant to criticize the play of college kids or college coaches.

 

[Viejo Dinosaur]

Birdie delivers a lot of great lines about gambling and handicapping.

Here's one of my favorites: Think positive about your gambling and think negative in your handicapping process.

Works real well in college sports because the vast majority of coverage is overly positive.

Broadcasters and journalists are hesitant to criticize the play of college kids or college coaches.

Eat your betting money....but don’t bet your eating money....

The guy who invented poker was bright, but the guy who invented chips was a genius...

At gambling the deadly sin is to mistake a bad play for bad luck....

A gambler never makes the same mistake twice, it is usually three or four more times....

Hard to walk away from a winning streak but harder to leave the table when you are on a losing streak...

 

[John Kelly]

Love it, VD.

Save the sayings for your book.

I especially liked the line about poker chips.

How true.

 

[Dell Dude]

Is Birdie making a comeback or nearing the elimination #?

 

[John Kelly]

I'll update the scoreboard at night's end.

 

[John Kelly]

CURRENT RECORDS:

JOHN KELLY 12-10

RAILBIRD 2-8

 

[Viejo Dinosaur]

Love it, VD.

Save the sayings for your book.

I especially liked the line about poker chips.

How true.

If I had your talent the book would have been finished....By the way, those gambling lines were stolen from others....just like some of Rails selections..... hahahahaha

 

[railbird]

I got to take a week off and clear my head

 

[railbird]

Going to take a week off and clear my head

 

[Dell Dude]

CURRENT RECORDS:

JOHN KELLY 12-10

RAILBIRD 2-8

Lmfao. At least you are still ahead in the loss column, Birdie!

 

[Dell Dude]

Here is some Computer Bobby stats. Birdie has to go 10-10 to even have a statistical chance at a chop. JK would just need to win 1/8.

If JK finishes 4-4, Birdie would have to go 14-6 to chop.

So this shit is over unless Birdie goes on an epic winning streak.

 

[Dell Dude]

The only thing +EV for Birdie is he probably only needs to chop. Tiebreaker rules is correlated to him winning.

 

[Jammer]

I've known ZZRoad aka Benny Profane for a long time on these forums, and he definitely marches to the beat of his own drum, but he's a good guy, I'm glad he posts here

LOL- seems like the guy is paddling with one oar in the water. I hope I get to play this clown in the Octagon.

 

[ComptrBob]

RAIL would obviously be a bigger favorite in the Last 15 than the Last 10 than the Last Five, given the current standings.

RAIL only 60% over the last five?

Feels low from where we currently stand.

From before Saturday's picks: Yes, Rail would win 60% of Last 5 ties (and about 80% of all tiebreakers) vs your 15%, given a 25% chance of a further tie. Using the Last 10 tiebreaker he gets about 75% vs your 7%. Last 15 you start with 2W and 1L, but again Rail wins 75% vs your 3%..

Currently: at JK 12-10 vs 2-8 the contest moves even more in JK's favor, assume again JK 52% vs Rail 56% going forward, JK is 83% to win the contest vs Rail at 17% with Rail taking 93% of all tiebreakers (Rail only has a 9% chance of winning outright and 8% by tiebreaker). Breakeven contest ML is around -500 favoring JK. Again, assume no game pushes.

 

[Diogenes]

Joe Harris was same odds

 

[kane]

Lmfao. At least you are still ahead in the loss column, Birdie!

How have you been Dell, hope everything is good by you

 

[ZzyzxRoad]

How have you been Dell, hope everything is good by you

Yeah

 

[Dell Dude]

Getting gang banged by a bunch of bums on the PGA Tour.

 

[nut6]

Yeah

 

[John Kelly]

Yeah.

Contagious.

 

[John Kelly]

Joe Harris was same odds

I saw 7/1 offered by Westgate.

 

[blueline]

Bellamy Road comes to the 1/4 pole...the rider takes a look back....

 

[John Kelly]

Don't fall off.

See Daniel Centeno.

 

[John Kelly]

From before Saturday's picks: Yes, Rail would win 60% of Last 5 ties (and about 80% of all tiebreakers) vs your 15%, given a 25% chance of a further tie. Using the Last 10 tiebreaker he gets about 75% vs your 7%. Last 15 you start with 2W and 1L, but again Rail wins 75% vs your 3%..

Currently: at JK 12-10 vs 2-8 the contest moves even more in JK's favor, assume again JK 52% vs Rail 56% going forward, JK is 83% to win the contest vs Rail at 17% with Rail taking 93% of all tiebreakers (Rail only has a 9% chance of winning outright and 8% by tiebreaker). Breakeven contest ML is around -500 favoring JK. Again, assume no game pushes.

Ahh yes, no game pushes.

Thanks for your input, Bob.

 

[Viejo Dinosaur]

Black History Month not too kind to Railbird......might not see him until March.....

I see a white flag in the distance.....

 

[John Kelly]

If I had your talent the book would have been finished....By the way, those gambling lines were stolen from others....just like some of Rails selections..... hahahahaha

Good for a chuckle.

 

[John Kelly]

Play #23: 853 Illinois +11 (-110) over Wisconsin at William Hill

Brad Underwood's team is starting to gel.

Watch the tight huddles lately as this young team is focused on Underwood's instructions.

Illinois has won four straight and five of six since losing at home to Wisconsin in late January, 72-60.

Expect a tighter margin this time around because Illinois was only 4-for-21 beyond the arc that night.

The rigors of a long season and a short bench may finally be catching up to the overachieving Badgers.

Wisky wins the game but Illinois cashes the bet.

 

[Heisenberg]

keep it up JK-gl

 

[Dell Dude]

Every JK win is another stab wound into Birdie’s fat stomach.

 

[Dell Dude]

Illinois win, 11-9 finish keeps Birdie alive. Illinois loss, it’s 9-11. This is best case where JK loses out.

 

[Dell Dude]

Not betting it but I like the points.

 

[John Kelly]

Rough visual, Dude.

This is a friendly competition, not a death match.

 

[John Kelly]

Not betting it but I like the points.

Good to hear.

 

[John Kelly]

Illinois win, 11-9 finish keeps Birdie alive. Illinois loss, it’s 9-11. This is best case where JK loses out.

Bite your tongue.