Hope you continue to heal my friend!
The EOG Octagon (RAILBIRD v John Kelly)
- Thread starter John Kelly
- Start date
Hope you continue to heal my friend!
Good capping so far JK-Keep it up!
I'll give a "nominal" bracket of odds to give an idea . Currently JK 10-8 vs Rail 1-6.
Assume JK with a 52% win probability and Railbird a 56% win probability (assume tie % for each game is zero) going forward. Roughly a -310 breakeven contest ML in favor of JK, about a 10% chance of a contest tie.
Now, if we close the win % gap, assume JK with a 53% win probability and Railbird a 55% win probability going forward. Roughly a -400 breakeven contest ML in favor of JK.
railbird
EOG Master
what would a 59 for railbird and 49 for jk translate too?
JK wins contest about 53% of the time, 12% contest tie, 35% Rail.
Breakeven ML around JK -150.
THE FACTSMAN
EOG Addicted
i would have given you +250 yesterday
so using a dime line...........and your estimation of winning 59% and jk 49%
i'll give you +140 if you think you can win
i'll actually lay -150 but now its $3000 my risk to your $2000
this is good 7 pm est Friday
but you dont want any part of it
and i cant blame you.
I am just trying to take advantage of your ego.
hoping you might bite.
so using a dime line...........and your estimation of winning 59% and jk 49%
i'll give you +140 if you think you can win
i'll actually lay -150 but now its $3000 my risk to your $2000
this is good 7 pm est Friday
but you dont want any part of it
and i cant blame you.
I am just trying to take advantage of your ego.
hoping you might bite.
For those that don't remember or weren't here, JK did a "Winning Wednesday" Internet broadcast show. The show ran from Sept. 9, 2009 to July 6, 2011, JK usually made one pick a week (all to win 1 unit) , going 63-35-3, 64.3%, +25.44u. Amazingly, on the show, The Shrink hit 59.3% on his picks before his last show on April 7, 2010.
One subtle point: RAIL is likely to win all ties in this competition considering his slow start and the tiebreaking procedure (Last 5, Last 10, Last 15, etc.).
The trailing contestant will win a lion's share of the ties.
The difference in hitting 53% and 52% is the difference between winning and losing long term.
Sports betting is a game of small edges.
Sports betting is a game of small edges.
Only two Saturday cards left in February.
I'll likely have three or four plays going in the contest tomorrow.
Hope to post the selections later tonight.
I'll likely have three or four plays going in the contest tomorrow.
Hope to post the selections later tonight.
BIRDIE's wait-and-see approach is baffling.
wirelessjava
EOG Enthusiast
Under pressure and the thought of losing. I think we will see Rail's best effort
--Wire
--Wire
He was fabulous in November, December and January.
Something has changed
Maybe he thinks he can win and will do something foolish
And say he didn’t give his best effort
Viejo Dinosaur
EOG Master
Just another act..
railbird
EOG Master
as a pitcher and tennis player I learned to play slow when losing and fast when ahead
This is a good point.
I estimate Rail would win about 60% of ties that go the Last 5 vs JK's 15% with 25% going to the Last 10 tiebreaker. Overall this would give Rail around an extra 7.5% to JK's 2.5% of tiebreakers.
RAIL would obviously be a bigger favorite in the Last 15 than the Last 10 than the Last Five, given the current standings.
RAIL only 60% over the last five?
Feels low from where we currently stand.
RAIL only 60% over the last five?
Feels low from where we currently stand.
I've got him as a virtual cinch to win a tiebreaker over the Last 15, given the current standings.
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Play #19: 743 Pacific +1 -110 at William Hill
Three more plays coming.
Play #20: 692 San Jose State +12 (-110) at William Hill
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Play #21: 750 Cal-Irvine -6.5 (-110) at William Hill (EDIT: Play was canceled due to Railbird's earlier selection of 749 UCSB +6.5)
Play #22: 766 Hawaii -10.5 (-110) at Westgate
Play #22: 766 Hawaii -10.5 (-110) at Westgate
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BigDaddy
EOG Master
birdman played cal sant barb
Thanks BigD.
I will replace Selection #21 with another play.
I did not see Birdie's selections posted tonight.
He's been so quiet he lulled me to sleep.
Play #21: 672 Air Force +9.5 at William HIll
To recap my four Saturday selections:
Play #19: 743 Pacific +1 -110 at William Hill
Play #20: 692 San Jose State +12 (-110) at William Hill
Play #21: 672 Air Force +9.5 (-110) at William Hill
Play #22: Play #22: 766 Hawaii -10.5 (-110) at Westgate
Play #19: 743 Pacific +1 -110 at William Hill
Play #20: 692 San Jose State +12 (-110) at William Hill
Play #21: 672 Air Force +9.5 (-110) at William Hill
Play #22: Play #22: 766 Hawaii -10.5 (-110) at Westgate
Viejo Dinosaur
EOG Master
Noticing for the most part that both contestants stay mostly away from the bigger conferences....especially Railbird.....
railbird
EOG Master
I dont bet on teams that use airplanes
ZzyzxRoad
EOG Dedicated
Yeah
I thought I’ve seen it all, but imagine, we have a guy who comes up on a message board and responds “yeah” to every post. There are some strange birds out there.
Permit me to translate. This is called "sarcasm." Rather than get into what a moronic statement it is to say that you never make a play on a team that flies on planes, or rather than say that this is one of a series of statements that is used to say "look at me" and to generate site traffic by being outrageous, a simple "Yeah" seems to cover all of it in its entirety.
And one more thing:
Rather than constantly analyzing the odds of probabilities of who needs what to win and what the odds are on each contestant, try a little old school strategy and concentrate on winning the next play you make. Nothing more....nothing less. The rest is just hot air, and sounds like the equivalent of women sitting around in a beauty salon on a Saturday morning.
Almost Alright seemed to use this strategy to maximum effectiveness last month.
Rather than constantly analyzing the odds of probabilities of who needs what to win and what the odds are on each contestant, try a little old school strategy and concentrate on winning the next play you make. Nothing more....nothing less. The rest is just hot air, and sounds like the equivalent of women sitting around in a beauty salon on a Saturday morning.
Almost Alright seemed to use this strategy to maximum effectiveness last month.
That would be fine except this clown posts "yeah" to everyome's posts across this board. I can site a bunch of examples. My point is, what the fuck is the purpose? I mean, if it gets this moron through the day, then, by all means.