The EOG Octagon (ZZYZX ROAD v EJD5277)

Plays #37-#38:

Thursday May 23, 2019

12:10 PM ET/9:10 AM PT:

Grand Salami OVER 91.5 runs -108 @ Pinnacle

12:37 PM ET/9:37 AM PT:

911 Boston Red Sox (-1.5) +115 (Weber/Richard) @ William Hill
 
Gonna try and end this right now.

Plays #39-#40:

Thursday May 23, 2019:

6:10 PM ET/3:10 PM PT:

913 Tampa Bay Rays -124 (Yarbrough/Plutko) @ Westgate

7:10 PM CT/5:10 PM PT:

916 Houston Astros (-1.5) +105 (Giolito/Martin) @ Westgate
 
Me: 23-17, +6.22u

Z: 16-18, -3.98u

Z does have a path forward. He trails by 10.2 units with 6 bullets left, meaning he needs to go 6-0 AND his 6 picks need to average +170 or higher.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Thanks for your input, Z.

Here's the beauty of this promotion aside from Z's self-evaluation:

Z defeated yours truly last month and it looks like he will lose to EJD this month, however with this event offering a +150 payback, Z will profit 500 bananas while going 1-1.
 
This experience has taught me that I have been using the same system for way too long and I need to completely overhaul it.
Baseball a vastly different game today than even 5 years ago, and none of the changes favor UNDER bettors.

-Batters working counts deeper than ever
-Pitchers relying on hard breaking stuff more than ever (which means more strikeouts, but also WAY more walks/HBP and mistakes in the middle of the zone)
-Pitch counts in use more than ever, meaning no rhythm for starters and overtaxed pens
-Uppercut swing meaning more long balls
-Juiced baseballs (go ahead, MLB, deny it all you want.)
-Defenses worse than ever. The spectacular plays still get made, but routine stuff is getting booted at an unheard of rate.

In my very humble opinion, the market has nowhere near caught up to this stuff.

All that said, Z deserved a better fate. He took 4 wicked beats on 1st 5 stuff, whereas I really only took one with a Twins run line. If 3 of those 4 go Z’s way, we’ve got a barn burner.

I respect the hell out of him as a capper and I have no doubt he’ll adapt.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
EJD, what about defensive shifts that rob so many singles to right field?

What about the inability of MLB teams to manufacture a run without a hit?

We rarely see this sequence anymore: Walk, stolen base, sacrifice bunt and sacrifice fly to score a run.

How about the inability to move a runner from second to third with nobody out or scoring a runner from third with less than two out?

And what about so many low-scoring postseason games we've seen over the past five seasons?
 
EJD, what about defensive shifts that rob so many singles to right field?

What about the inability of MLB teams to manufacture a run without a hit?

We rarely see this sequence anymore: Walk, stolen base, sacrifice bunt and sacrifice fly to score a run.

How about the inability to move a runner from second to third with nobody out or scoring a runner from third with less than two out?

And what about so many low-scoring postseason games we've seen over the past five seasons?
The walk, stolen base, sacrifice, sacrifice sequence results in ONE RUN, and the bases empty with 2 out.

The walk, strikeout, walk, strikeout, home run sequence results in the same outcome but with THREE RUNS.

A home run is not dependent on anything else to score runs. It scores 100% of the time. It is completely insulated from the rest of the game. MLB will shatter the all time season home run record this year and it won’t even be close.

No need anymore to get the runner over to third with less than 2 out. The eventual dinger scores him regardless of what base he’s standing at. It’s just not that important a part of the game anymore. Fewer teams than ever are running, yet scoring is going through the roof. If you have an alternate explanation, I would love to hear it.

And all this happening DESPITE team batting averages cratering due to both the insane strikeout rate AND the presence of the seemingly-constant defensive shifts that you mention.

Scoring cratered in MLB from 2008-2015, mainly due to the advent of the cut fastball and other hard breaking pitches. Increased velocity also became a factor toward the end of that period. A reversal in that trend started in the 2nd half of 2016 and the league has yet to look back.

The postseason is irrelevant to what happens this time of year. In the postseason, the teams get at least every 3rd day off, and often get multiple days off between series. This means rested staffs and shorter starting rotations. Those vulnerable 4th and 5th starters either sit or get sent to the pen. It’s a completely different game.
 
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John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
The postseason should offer the right way to play the game because the best teams embody the latest and greatest ways to play the game.

The lack of situational hitting becomes a problem in the postseason when the game's tying run is sitting at second base with nobody out and the trailing team strikes out three straight times while swinging for the fences.

Happens nightly during the regular season at a ballpark near you but it only seems to gain notice and sharp criticism in October.

Not being able to manufacture a single run in low-scoring playoff games is critical.

And sometimes one run is just as important as three runs when the score is tied in the top of the ninth inning.

Interesting note from last postseason: Commentator Orel Hershiser mentioned with runners on first and second and two outs that "third base was open."

Strikeout pitchers these days can pick their spots and pitch around dangerous hitters to find a hole in a team's lineup.
 
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The postseason should offer the right way to play the game because the best teams should embody the latest and greatest ways to play the game.

The lack of situational hitting becomes a problem in the postseason when the game's tying run is sitting at second base with nobody out and the trailing team strikes out three straight times while swinging for the fences.

Happens nightly during the regular season at a ballpark near you but it only seems to gain notice and sharp criticism in October.

Not being able to manufacture a single run in low-scoring playoff games is critical.

And sometimes one run is just as important as three runs when the score is tied in the top of the ninth inning.

Interesting note from last postseason: Commentator Orel Hershiser mentioned with runners on first and second and two out that "third base was open."

Strikeout pitchers these days can pick their spots and pitch around dangerous hitters to find a hole in a team's lineup.
I agree with all of this, and my post above yours is in no way an endorsement of the way the game is currently played.

As sports bettors, however, it’s our job to adjust to the realities of the current environment, not the one that we would prefer.

Tony Gwynn is rolling over in his grave.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Good point, EJD.

Adapting is key.

With the huge increase in scoring over the last four seasons, I'm showing about 60 more UNDERS than OVERS since the start of the 2018 MLB season.

As a dedicated UNDER bettor, I like the higher totals which allows for a greater margin of error.
 
Uh oh.

I take that to mean I’m a big dog next month.

I suspect Jammer does WNBA, and I don’t, so that’s probably the case.

Regardless, very nice gesture, Z.
 
Uh oh.

I take that to mean I’m a big dog next month.

I suspect Jammer does WNBA, and I don’t, so that’s probably the case.

Regardless, very nice gesture, Z.
Don’t think that’s quite what he meant, lol. Based on what I’ve seen, I am the dog in this match up. Whoever wins should play Heim next, that would be good.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Understood.

Let's talk again in late June.

I can reserve a spot for you in the fall, if you would like.

No personal attacks, please.

Address the contribution, not the contributor.
 
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