'There's Gambling & Then There's Gambling'

Heim

EOG Master
Quote from Al Michaels when Brandon Staley decided to go for it on 4th and 2 from his
own 18 midway through the 3rd quarter....

This kid has overdosed on analytics. He blew the Chief game too by failing to kick fgs.

At minimum if you are going to be Amarillo Slim, show some creativity besides a run'
up the gut they're sitting on.
 

Crazy Pete

EOG Senior Member
I did not see the game, other than a few glances from casino playing tables.
It certainly is unconventional to go for it from your own 18, but the key question is: is it a positive EV move?
I think that it very possibly was the correct move to go for it.
It is -EV to consider things on a strictly results oriented basis.

A very common error made by NFL coaches is to sacrifice EV to delay a very negative event, kind of like a blackjack player not hitting a 14 when the dealer has a 10 up. It’s usually (ahem) the correct move to hit, but amateurs fear getting knocked out right away, so they stay, sacrificing EV for a few seconds of still having a chance to win.

As gamblers here, we have to look at the EV. Belichik was crucified for doing something similar several years ago, but he did make the correct move.
I’m surprised that Collinsworth is criticizing it: he has a financial stake in a football analytical business. He should know better than judging things results oriented vs analytics.
The key point here is that the Chargers are in deep Doo Doo no matter what they do. If you punt, you are giving the Raiders the ball right near field goal territory anyway. Risk versus reward 🤔... I give the edge to going for it.
That being said, I 💯 agree with you that, although the decision was correct, the execution stunk.
Running up the gut ?!😱

I am unfamiliar with the two field goals versus KC. But a rule of thumb is: if it’s a close decision, you usually analytically should go for the TD instead of the FG.
 

jimmythegreek

The opening odds start here
Nothing worse than seeing the probability of a down-and-distance situation without knowing the play call.

Tell me the play you're calling and then I'll tell you if you should go for it or not.
I know I'm probably going for it from at the best field position at minimum -40, but you have to pick your best spots if you're trying to draw the defense off. So this gamble no doubt a matter of desperation that just happened to pay off in a dangerous spot.
 

boston massacre

EOG Dedicated
I know I'm probably going for it from at the best field position at minimum -40, but you have to pick your best spots if you're trying to draw the defense off. So this gamble no doubt a matter of desperation that just happened to pay off in a dangerous spot.

trying to draw the defense off.

That's Becoming a Very Low Percentage Result, of Happening.

Teams are Catching on To That.

"WATCH THE BALL" Has Been The Coaching Acumen.
 

boston massacre

EOG Dedicated
Quote from Al Michaels when Brandon Staley decided to go for it on 4th and 2 from his
own 18 midway through the 3rd quarter....

This kid has overdosed on analytics. He blew the Chief game too by failing to kick fgs.

At minimum if you are going to be Amarillo Slim, show some creativity besides a run'
up the gut they're sitting on.

some creativity besides a run'
up the gut they're sitting on.


The Third Down Play, Prior To That, Was The Same Call.
 

raycabino

Long Live Wilson!
Nothing worse than seeing the probability of a down-and-distance situation without knowing the play call.

Tell me the play you're calling and then I'll tell you if you should go for it or not.
Well if they tell you they are telling the defense too and at that point I would assume the percentages go way down lol.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
Well if they tell you they are telling the defense too and at that point I would assume the percentages go way down lol.


Hahaha.

I guess my point is that league averages are mostly nonsense when analyzing these specific situations.

Love the call of the underused quarterback draw, especially at the college level where there are more shifty quarterbacks and fewer defensive linemen who move like gazelles.

The quick run to the line of scrimmage and quarterback sneak always seems to work, too.

These days, fourth down is NOT for punts or field goals.
 

John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
P.S. - Good call, RAYCABINO, on Georgia to avenge its only loss of the season to Alabama.

One for the good guys and the smart guys.

Though we sweated the result for 59 minutes of the 60-minute game.
 
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