Re: Tracking the Pinny LEAN enclosed.
One point on an NFL total was not enough to define value by my definition. Not good enough. I don't think you can break even betting under 54 over a large sample of 100 plays and you paid 10 cents juice. You might have value at under 55 and pinny has a 53 with normal juice hung. Under 54 had no value - over 53 had no value. There was nothing there.
So, you called this situation a lean. What criteria do you use to say that - how do you know if Pinny was balancing early action or not? Do you think under 54 at -110 had positive expectations? It's not a lean unless Pinny is gambling with us. Was under 53 +108 juice (which is what Pinny has if they hold it all) or whatever, a bet with value? Did Pinny want to be one sided on a million dollars of that?
A lean isn't a lean until there is value there.
I'm sorry but this is where you all will fail......
The value you are quoting is IMAGINARY!!!! 100% made up!
What exactly are you people looking for?
Winners OR some value that isn't there?
Pinnacle obviously thought getting UNDER 53 (+108) had a lot of value!!!!
They took a stand on the biggest game of the year and FORCED action on the OVER because they obviously thought the under was the bet.
There's just no way Pinnacle got any action on the under from anyone with a clue. There were 53 1/2's & 54's out there all day.
You people want to look at Pinnacles lines and get bets from them?
The things you are coming up with ARE NOT OPINIONS ... The Super Bowl total was an OPINION ... They took a lot of money on the over. That is what you all should be looking for.... When Pinnacle uses a line that BEGS for action. That is the only time it's worth following Pinnacle... Like the Super Bowl total as that was as obvious a "lean" "shade" "opinion" as you get giving them a huge decision (bet) .... Thatis what you should be looking for!
You call what you guys are looking for a LEAN?
I don't know what to say.
A sports book ... any sports book might have an opinion on a game for any number of reasons.
There is no word to describe what they are doing except having a higher or lower line.
If you can talk yourself into making bets using that logic
Good for you all......