UFC

smartz

smartz

2
Kelvin played that fight super conservative. Knew he needed a win desperately to break the 3 fight skid. Didn't let the hands go at all and outwrestled the bigger man
 
smartz

smartz

2
Playing Usman inside the distance for a half unit. Not an official play. just me being a degenerate
Kamaru inside the distance/goes to decision is no action -130
And
Usman inside the distance +250

.25 on each
 
smartz

smartz

2
Big night. Hit the biggies and the big dog.

[20-12] +10.62
3* [4-2] +5.12

GRADED:

1/16/21
3*Dusko Todorovic -140 L Closing Line: -175
1*Max Holloway -180 W Closing Line: -160
1*Max Holloway -155 W


1/20/21
1*Mike Davis -180 W Closing Line: -165
1*Tom Breese -122 L Closing Line: -155
1*Tyson Nam -130 L Closing Line: -125
1*Michael Chiesa by Submission +250 L Closing Line: +250


1/23/21
3*Makhmud Muradov +103 W Closing Line: -220
2*Amir Albazi +120 W Closing Line: -120
1*Amir Albazi +105 W
2*Julianna Pena +110 W Closing Line: +100
1*Amanda Ribas -253 L Closing Line: -345
0.5*Amanda Ribas by Submission +275 L Closing Line: +165
1*Under 2.5 Michael Chandler/Dan Hooker -110 W Closing Line: -110
1*Under 2.5 McGregor/Poirier -116 W Closing Line: -190
Hit Chandler +350 KO for 0.25* but only posted it in BB thread. Wont count it


2/6/21
3*Diego Ferreira -110 L Closing Line: +100
2*Alexander Volkov -160 W Closing Line: -170
0.5*Alexander Volkov by KO/TKO/DQ +140 W Closing Line: +100
2*Under 1.5 Rds Devonte Smith/Justin Jaynes -155 L Closing Line: -190
1.25*Frankie Edgar +350 L Closing Line: +280
0.25*Frankie Edgar by decision +500 L Closing Line: +400
1*Alexandre Pantoja -125 W Closing Line: -110
1*Danilo Marques +205 W Closing Line: +195
1*Seung Woo Choi +205 W Closing Line: +200


2/13/21
1*Gabe Green +103 W Closing Line: -140
2*Gabe Green -110 W
1*Under 2.5 Rds Gabe Green/Phil Rowe -135 L Closing Line: -140
2*Chris Gutierrez -150 W Closing Line: -135
1*Chris Gutierrez -125 W
1*Maycee Barber +159 L Closing Line: -115
1*Kelvin Gastelum -219 W Closing Line: -200
1*Anthony Hernandez +300 W Closing Line: +370

PENDING:

2/20/21
2*Jamall Emmers -155
1*John Castaneda +120
1*Julian Erosa +120

2/27/21
1*Thiago Moises +165

3/6/21
3*Amanda Lemos -104
2*Thiago Santos +232
2*Kyler Phillips +169
2*Over 3.5 Rds Petr Yan/Aljamain Sterling -105
1*Parlay (Jan Blachowicz +225 & Islam Makhachev -310) +330
1*Casey Kenney -108

3/13/21
3*Matheus Nicolau +170
2*Steve Garcia +210
1*Ricardo Ramos +185

3/20/21
2*Derek Brunson +145

3/27/21
2*Stipe Miocic +140

4/9/21 Bellator
2*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov -120
1*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov +110
 
Last edited:
smartz

smartz

2
[20-12] +10.62
3* [4-2] +5.12

GRADED:

1/16/21
3*Dusko Todorovic -140 L Closing Line: -175
1*Max Holloway -180 W Closing Line: -160
1*Max Holloway -155 W


1/20/21
1*Mike Davis -180 W Closing Line: -165
1*Tom Breese -122 L Closing Line: -155
1*Tyson Nam -130 L Closing Line: -125
1*Michael Chiesa by Submission +250 L Closing Line: +250


1/23/21
3*Makhmud Muradov +103 W Closing Line: -220
2*Amir Albazi +120 W Closing Line: -120
1*Amir Albazi +105 W
2*Julianna Pena +110 W Closing Line: +100
1*Amanda Ribas -253 L Closing Line: -345
0.5*Amanda Ribas by Submission +275 L Closing Line: +165
1*Under 2.5 Michael Chandler/Dan Hooker -110 W Closing Line: -110
1*Under 2.5 McGregor/Poirier -116 W Closing Line: -190
Hit Chandler +350 KO for 0.25* but only posted it in BB thread. Wont count it


2/6/21
3*Diego Ferreira -110 L Closing Line: +100
2*Alexander Volkov -160 W Closing Line: -170
0.5*Alexander Volkov by KO/TKO/DQ +140 W Closing Line: +100
2*Under 1.5 Rds Devonte Smith/Justin Jaynes -155 L Closing Line: -190
1.25*Frankie Edgar +350 L Closing Line: +280
0.25*Frankie Edgar by decision +500 L Closing Line: +400
1*Alexandre Pantoja -125 W Closing Line: -110
1*Danilo Marques +205 W Closing Line: +195
1*Seung Woo Choi +205 W Closing Line: +200


2/13/21
1*Gabe Green +103 W Closing Line: -140
2*Gabe Green -110 W
1*Under 2.5 Rds Gabe Green/Phil Rowe -135 L Closing Line: -140
2*Chris Gutierrez -150 W Closing Line: -135
1*Chris Gutierrez -125 W
1*Maycee Barber +159 L Closing Line: -115
1*Kelvin Gastelum -219 W Closing Line: -200
1*Anthony Hernandez +300 W Closing Line: +370

PENDING:

2/20/21
2*Jamall Emmers -155
1*John Castaneda +120
1*Julian Erosa +120

2/27/21
1*Nikita Krylov +250
1*Thiago Moises +165

3/6/21
3*Amanda Lemos -104
2*Thiago Santos +232
2*Kyler Phillips +169
2*Over 3.5 Rds Petr Yan/Aljamain Sterling -105
1*Parlay (Jan Blachowicz +225 & Islam Makhachev -310) +330
1*Casey Kenney -108

3/13/21
3*Matheus Nicolau +170
2*Steve Garcia +210
1*Ricardo Ramos +185

3/20/21
2*Derek Brunson +145

3/27/21
2*Stipe Miocic +140

4/9/21 Bellator
2*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov -120
1*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov +110
 
smartz

smartz

2
John Castaneda +120 (70" Reach) vs Eddie Wineland (69" reach)
Current line: Castaneda -120

A former champ in the WEC in 2006, Eddie Wineland has seen better days. Over his last 14 bouts the 36 year old Wineland is (6-8). While he has loss to some of the divisions better fighters his wins have only come from bottom of the barrel competition. When I watch Wineland fight, it seems clear that the fast evolution of the sport has left him behind. He relies heavily on his boxing but lacks the power and technique to be a specialist. He defends takedowns well but has little to no offense grappling of his own. Can this style work? Sure. But you have be very fucking good and have finishing power to pull it off. A diverse skillset is mandatory in modern MMA unless you're a top of the food chain specialist.

John Castaneda is a pest and a former champ in the promotion Combates America. He is good everywhere but not great anywhere, but seems to get the most out of his ability. Utilizing his quickness and mixing in grappling with his striking very well. His biggest asset is his durability. Castaneda just hangs around. He takes shots well, has good cardio, and can maintain a high pace over 15 minutes. In a recent interview he stated that he has actually put more effort towards improving his cardio. Which is probably the best decision any fighter lacking raw talent can make. Castaneda loss his last bout on short notice to an outstanding prospect in Nathaniel Wood. Castaneda gave Wood trouble but was just outmatched. Nathaniel is better everywhere and just more talented. No matter how much work he could put in, Castaneda's ceiling will never touch that of Wood. With that being said, I think when pitted against an aging Eddie Wineland, raw talent is probably on Castaneda's side. I think if Castaneda had any name value we would see him no less than -145. While I expect the fight to be competitive early, I see Castaneda pulling away as the fight progresses. Using his speed, durability, and more diverse skillset. Castaneda by unanimous decision


Jamall Emmers -155 (74" reach) vs Chas Skelly (72.5" reach)
Current line: Emmers -200

Jamall Emmers is (18-5) overall and a very exciting prospect. His (1-2) UFC record does not reflect how good of a fighter he is. Prior to entering the UFC he beat bigtime UFC prospects Alexander Hernandez and Cory Sandhagen. He loss his UFC debut on the Contender Series as a -300 favorite. After taking the first round with a knockdown, he tried to evade a headkick in the 2nd and even blocked it and but was still knocked out. Two years later he went on to face world class striker Giga Chikadze (5-1 UFC) and in my opinion won the fight handily. Outstruck Giga 54-38, takedowns were 2-0 in his favor, and had totally taken over the fight by the final bell. The judges didn't agree. Despite the loss, Jamall's ability to evade strikes and stand with Giga said alot about his standup game. He went on to destroy Vince Cachero which is one of the worst beatdowns without a finish in recent memory. Cachero took KO shot after KO shot and kept plodding forward. A former collegiate wrestler, Emmers possesses great athleticism, very light feet/distance control, solid striking, good defensive instincts and good cardio. He's a very well rounded MMA fighter and I think he can make some serious noise in the UFC.

Chas Skelly sports a (7-3) record in the UFC but really has no quality wins. Of his 7 UFC wins, only 1 fighter has a winning record in the promotion. That fighter is Kevin Souza. If you are wondering who Kevin Souza is, you aren't alone. He was cut from the UFC shortly after this loss. Souza actually had Skelly in serious trouble after catching him clean and knocking him down. Souza foolishly chased Skelly to the mat, got wrapped up and was unable to finish. He was later taken down and submitted via rear naked choke in the 2nd. The two other fighters he has fought with winning records have accounted for 2/3 losses (Darren Elkins, Mirsad Bektic; neither fighter is very good). Skelly is a poor athlete and his game is very takedown dependent. His striking is below average for the UFC and needs the fight to hit the mat in order to be effective.

In my opinion, this matchup features two fighters with very deceptive records. Emmer's superior athleticism, distance control, and collegiate wrestling pedigree is going to give Skelly problems making this a grappling affair. If the fight remains standing I find it hard to see Jamall not taking advantage of Skellys poor movement and limited striking ability. Emmers by unanimous decision.
 
smartz

smartz

2
Julian Erosa +120 (74.5" Reach) vs Nate Landwehr (72" reach)
Current line: Erosa -120

I often talk about and put alot of weight in pace and strikes landed vs absorbed. While both these fighters can maintain a high pace, these both also fight like fucking morons. Both put defense on the backburner and absorb boatloads of damage. Erosa has tremendous reach for the division but does not utilize it nearly as effectively as he could. Rarely uses front kicks or jabs and often hunts for flurries of hooks. His inability to maintain range allows him to get hit often but fortunately he takes the damage well. Landwehr just plays a game of chicken. Talks trash, moves forward, and see's who can land harder. Landwehr does not possess anything close to the power necessary to play this dangerous game. Landwehr is 1-1 in the UFC. He won a close decision to Darren Elkins (also fights like retard) and got KO'd in the first by Herbert Burns (Only KO in Herbert Burns career). Landwehr has good takedown defense but is fairly one dimensional and just tries to throw big shots. He almost relies on wearing his opponent down to finish them late.

So why do I side with Erosa here? For one, in a match that I predict will be a slugfest, I think Erosa holds more power in his strikes. I also don't think Landwehr will be able to break Erosa. Erosa can maintain a high pace, absorb damage, and still plod forward. And while I feel this fight will stay solely on the feet, Erosa has a ground game he can utilize if the fight hits the mat. Lastly, Erosa has faced far far far stiffer competition. While Landwehr has fought two fringe top 30 guys in the UFC, Erosa has faced Sean Woodson, Julio Arce, Grant Dawson, Devonte Smith, Jamall Emmers in succession. The schedule the UFC has put together for him has been brutal. Going 2-3 through that group is impressive to me. I think the current line seems correct as I feel Erosa should be in the -125/130 range. While the line value is gone now, I gladly took the plus money with the more battle tested Erosa. Erosa by TKO. May add a unit on the under once a total is posted.
 
smartz

smartz

2
smartz said:
[14-10] +2.94

2/13/21
1*Gabe Green +103
2*Gabe Green -110
2*Chris Gutierrez -150
1*Kelvin Gastelum -219
1*Maycee Barber +159
1*Gillian Robertson +153
1*Anthony Hernandez +300

Gabe Green +103 (73" Reach) vs Phil Rowe (80.5" reach)
Current line: Green -135

The deeper I dive into this matchup, the more compelling of a case I have for Gabriel Green. Initially played 1* at +103 I have since added 2 more units at -110.

I first was introduced to Phil Rowe watching a UFC embedded on his training partner David Branch. Branch being a solid UFC vet, my assumption was Rowe must be a solid fighter as well. So naturally when he landed a fight on the contender series I tuned in. I was left fairly unimpressed. Rowe's biggest attribute is his frame. His 80.5" reach at 170 is a weapon. But the hand speed isn't there and he winds up on his strikes. Defensively he will often evade oncoming pressure with his chin high in the air ala Luke Rockhold. He was nearly KO'd in the first round of his Contender series debut but kudos to him as he rallied back and finished Shabahzyan in the 3rd (Green previously finished Shabahzyan in the 1st). Prior to this fight Rowe was a 6-2, but it is an awfully soft 6-2. The records of all his opponents were (4-7), (1-2), (0-5), (0-4), (2-2), (0-2), (1-3), (3-7). And he loss two of those bouts.

Gabe Green loss by decision in his UFC debut against a very talented Daniel Rodriguez on 7 days notice. Prior to that he was on a 6 fight win streak. His opponents records are as follows (7-1), (5-3), (9-4), (17-13), (7-2), (7-6). The quality of competition are drastically different for two guys entering their second career UFC fight. Gabe is 9-3 with two of his losses against good current UFC fighters, Daniel Rodriguez (3-1 UFC) and Jalin Turner (4-2 UFC). Gabe Green is a bit undersized for the division but he closes distance quickly with heavy power on his strikes. His cardio, pace, and chin are top notch. He is also very dangerous on the mat as well. With solid takedowns and 6 submission wins to his name. Also of note Green has finished all of his opponents in each of his 9 wins. While Rowe will be the much larger man, I think the skill differential between to two will be too great for him to overcome. Gabe is going to close distance and deliver relentless pressure. 1st round KO.

Chris Gutierrez -150 (67" Reach) vs Andre Ewell (76" reach)
Current line: Gutierrez -140

Ewell is an outstanding athlete with outstanding length for the division. Relies almost purely on his boxing. Lightning quick hands with decent pop on his punches despite no finishes in his UFC career. Initially he struggled mightily defending takedowns but has improved there immensely in the last 2 years. However, he still is a fish out of water on his back if taken down. My main problem with Ewell is he takes too much damage and his cardio is very average. Ewell is by far most dangerous in the first 7 or so minutes and slows after that. He also has shown no defense for leg kicks aside from left hand counters. In fact in his last 3 bouts his leg kick defense stats are as follows, 21/27, 20/24, 18/18. He is averaging nearly 20 leg kick strikes absorbed per contest at an 86% clip. Ewell really doesn't have the option to switch from southpaw to conventional if his leg is battered either. His defense suffers in the alternate stance and will tend to give up on it quick after absorbing a few shots. Marlon Vera exposed the leg kick flaw and his last 2 opponents have taken advantage. One of those opponents was Chris Gutierrez's training partner and fellow Factory X fighter, Jonathan Martinez, who loss by a shocking split decision. The media scored it 13-0 in Martinez's favor, but the judges went the other way. Martinez engaged in the boxing a little too much in the beginning when Ewell is most dangerous but slowly figured him out and broke him down. A heavy dose of leg kicks limited the explosiveness of Ewell and he hurt Ewell multiple times with front kicks to the body. Sapping the movement and cardio he took over the fight in the last 7 minutes of the fight. While I view Martinez as a slightly better fighter than Gutierrez, their styles are extremely similar. Chris is actually the more technical and skilled of the two and but lacks the power Martinez brings to the table. Chris excels with his kicks, defends/maintains range beautifully, and has superb cardio. While Chris defends takedowns well (76% defense) he does struggle on the mat if he is able to be controlled there. Fortunately for him, Ewell has only attempted 2 takedowns in his 6 fight UFC career and his BJJ is abysmal. Last but not least, leg kicks are a enormous part of Chris' game. Averaging around 30 leg kicks per contest over his last 4 and connecting at a very high clip. Gutierrez actually finished Vince Morales via calf kicks in 2020 and dropped Geraldo De Freitas 4x via calf kick as well.

I think Gutierrez is going to frustrate Ewell with his in and out movement while sniping at his legs and body. Landing bigger shots late as Ewell begins to slow. The recipe for success was already put into play by his coaches and training partner. I expect Gutierrez to come out very prepared for this fight despite taking it on short notice. Gutierrez by unanimous decision. I may add another unit if this line continues to drop.

Kelvin Gastelum -219 (71.5" Reach) vs Ian Heinisch (72" reach)
Current line: Gastelum -220

Buy low on Kelvin here. In the midst of a 3 fight losing streak and having been finished for the second time in his career via heel hook by Jack Hermansson, Gastelum finds himself as a 2:1 favorite against a very average Ian Heinisch. Gastelum is very undersized for the division and probably could be a world champ at 155 if he could find a way to lay off the beans and rice. No one has really ever questioned his talent just his diet. As the competition has increased for him at 185, his lack of size has become more pronounced. Struggling to close distance against elite strikers Darren Till and Israel Adesanya and getting rag-dolled by Chris Weidman (his grappling has become a liability just due to the inherent size disadvantage.) This could be a coincidence but all 4 of his losses at 185 happen to be the fighters he faced with the longest reach. Israel Adesanya 80.5", Chris Weidman 78", Jack Hermansson 77.5", Darren Till 75". All of his wins are against opponents with reach of 74" or less. To be fair 3/4 losses have come against top 5 opponents, so he can hang with the big boys. I just have serious doubts if he will ever rise to the top at 185. One things for sure, Kelvin's KO power, chin, and hand speed have translated to the step up in weight. Skill for skill I don't think theres anywhere Heinisch is superior to Kelvin. A monstrous step down in competition for Gastelum from the divisions elite to a fringe top 15 guy. And with a 1/2 inch reach advantage and lacking high level grappling, I find it hard to see how Heinisch will be able to exploit his bigger frame against Kelvin. Also Heinisch's cardio is average and noticeably slows in the 3rd whereas Kelvin never seems to slow. I hate laying wood like this but I think were getting Kelvin on the cheap with his 3 fight skid. He will outclass Heinisch and finish him via TKO.
Click to expand...
Gutierrez landed 32 leg kicks on Ewell and nearly finished him via the calf kick. Oddly enough Gabe Green nearly finished his fight via calf kick as well (landed 19/20 and outlanded Rowe 128-48 overall). Both men entered their bouts with massive reach disadvantages and leveled the playing field by disabling their opponents front leg.
 
smartz

smartz

2
Drakkar Klose -135 (70" Reach) vs Luis Pena (76" reach)
Current line: Klose -220

What I had originally wrote in Klose's original matchup vs Jai Herbert:
...And fortunately for him, Klose is not a ground game expert. Klose does utilize a decent amount of takedowns but its usually later in the fight as he tries to wear his opponent out and secure rounds. His top control is very average and he is not much of a submission threat (0 subs attempted through 7 UFC fights, no sub finishes in career). Drakkar likes to make his fights dirty. While built with a stout powerful frame, Drakkar is shorter for the division and often has to get into the range of his opponent. He does his damage with his hands but his most critical weapon is a smashing calf kick. He whips that kick with very little windup and times it well. In countless fights he has hurt his opponents calves badly, forcing them to switch stances and crippling their movement. Once the defense is compromised he moves in with furious tight combos and really ups the pace. His recipe for success is simple but very few have found a way to stop it. I believe getting in range to land the kick will be a problem for him this fight. Not only does he have to cover a large amount of distance due to the length discrepancy, he has to avoid getting sniped by Jai Herberts right fist. One shot on the button could easily end the night. Klose also likes to work in the clinch with dirty boxing and mixing in takedowns. I am curious to see who wins this battle if the clinch becomes a prominent part of the fight. Both excel in this position.

Luis Pena was probably the biggest prospect coming off TUF 2018. The guy oozes with potential. I fell in love with his range, fluidity, well balanced game, and outstanding nickname "Violent Bob Ross". He was so impressive Daniel Cormier took him under his wing and invited him to train at AKA. Despite the tools he possesses, Pena has struggled to put it all together. He has had bouts where he has been badly outgrappled or badly outstruck on the feet. And with his struggles has recently changed camps over to ATT in Florida. Maybe the camp switch can get him to achieve his potential. But I won't believe it til I see it (In his first bout under ATT he was submitted by Khama Worthy in the 3rd round). Pena can be effective when he is the man leading the dance on the feet. But he is consistently tentative (especially when facing better competition) and his lack of raw power rarely gains the respect of his opponents. He struggles to counter strike when opponents blitz him with strikes and often just retreats and gets bullied back to the fence. Mitigating his reach and allowing his opponents into striking range. Watching many of his fights it is clear Pena is far more confident on the ground. He will entertain the striking exchanges but the moment the tide starts to turn his opponents way he shoots for takedowns. His rangy frame allows him to put his opponents in compromising positions but he is far from elite on the mat. As the competition has increased the submission victories have vanished as well as his inability to maintain top control. The only fight as of late where he was able to maintain top position was against Steve Garcia who took the fight on a few days notice and fought up a weight class. Pena was getting pieced up on the feet but was able to get the fight to the mat and lay and pray for 3 rounds. He held control for 14/15 minutes despite being outlanded 98-58. While Pena does mix in front kicks he uses a boxing heavy stance and most of his offense comes with his fists. I hate to beat a dead horse here but this makes him susceptible to calf kicks and he has not shown much improvement defending this strike. Until fighters learn to adjust to this new wave of calf kicking, I will continue to put alot of weight into the lack of defense to the strike. Leg kick stats in Pena's UFC bouts: Worthy landed 17/18, Garcia 4/4 (I assume lack of game plan on 5 days notice), Frevola 11/11, Wiman 19/20, Peterson 10/10, Trizano 16/16. Mind you none of these men have even close to the power or calf kicking prowess Drakkar Klose does.

Klose's constant forward pressure will most likely have Pena on his back foot all night. And if he stays heavy on his lead leg, Klose is going to batter that calf. I will be interested to see if he can take Klose down. But I have a hard time seeing it happen. While I mentioned Klose is no "ground gam eexpert", his lack of ground offense does not mean he does not defend the ground game well. His collegiate wrestling background allows him to defend takedowns (68%) and he has shown good ability to defend when put into compromising positions. Finding ways to reverse position or scramble back to his feet. Stylistically I think this is a great matchup for Klose and him holding the power advantage is just icing on the cake. I see Klose controlling all 15 minutes and winning by unanimous decision.
 
Last edited:
smartz

smartz

2
[20-12] +10.62
3* [4-2] +5.12

GRADED:

1/16/21
3*Dusko Todorovic -140 L Closing Line: -175
1*Max Holloway -180 W Closing Line: -160
1*Max Holloway -155 W


1/20/21
1*Mike Davis -180 W Closing Line: -165
1*Tom Breese -122 L Closing Line: -155
1*Tyson Nam -130 L Closing Line: -125
1*Michael Chiesa by Submission +250 L Closing Line: +250


1/23/21
3*Makhmud Muradov +103 W Closing Line: -220
2*Amir Albazi +120 W Closing Line: -120
1*Amir Albazi +105 W
2*Julianna Pena +110 W Closing Line: +100
1*Amanda Ribas -253 L Closing Line: -345
0.5*Amanda Ribas by Submission +275 L Closing Line: +165
1*Under 2.5 Michael Chandler/Dan Hooker -110 W Closing Line: -110
1*Under 2.5 McGregor/Poirier -116 W Closing Line: -190
Hit Chandler +350 KO for 0.25* but only posted it in BB thread. Wont count it


2/6/21
3*Diego Ferreira -110 L Closing Line: +100
2*Alexander Volkov -160 W Closing Line: -170
0.5*Alexander Volkov by KO/TKO/DQ +140 W Closing Line: +100
2*Under 1.5 Rds Devonte Smith/Justin Jaynes -155 L Closing Line: -190
1.25*Frankie Edgar +350 L Closing Line: +280
0.25*Frankie Edgar by decision +500 L Closing Line: +400
1*Alexandre Pantoja -125 W Closing Line: -110
1*Danilo Marques +205 W Closing Line: +195
1*Seung Woo Choi +205 W Closing Line: +200


2/13/21
1*Gabe Green +103 W Closing Line: -140
2*Gabe Green -110 W
1*Under 2.5 Rds Gabe Green/Phil Rowe -135 L Closing Line: -140
2*Chris Gutierrez -150 W Closing Line: -135
1*Chris Gutierrez -125 W
1*Maycee Barber +159 L Closing Line: -115
1*Kelvin Gastelum -219 W Closing Line: -200
1*Anthony Hernandez +300 W Closing Line: +370

PENDING:

2/20/21
3*Drakkar Klose -135
2*Jamall Emmers -155
1*John Castaneda +120
1*Julian Erosa +120

2/27/21
1*Nikita Krylov +250
1*Nikita Krylov +260
1*Thiago Moises +165

3/6/21
3*Amanda Lemos -104
2*Thiago Santos +232
2*Kyler Phillips +169
2*Over 3.5 Rds Petr Yan/Aljamain Sterling -105
1*Parlay (Jan Blachowicz +225 & Islam Makhachev -310) +330
1*Casey Kenney -108

3/13/21
3*Matheus Nicolau +170
2*Steve Garcia +210
1*Ricardo Ramos +185

3/20/21
2*Derek Brunson +145

3/27/21
2*Stipe Miocic +140

4/9/21 Bellator
2*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov -120
1*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov +110
 
smartz

smartz

2
Nikita Krylov +250 (77.5" Reach) vs Magomed Ankalaev (75" reach)
Current line: Krylov +255

Magomed Ankalaev is a killer and another Dagestan native who is quickly rising up the ranks. He should be 14-0 if he did not get caught in a triangle with 10 seconds to go vs Paul Craig. A fight he was absolutely dominating for 14:50. We really have not seen him in trouble throughout his UFC career. That could be due to the competition as he has not ever really been tested. He has yet to fight anyone that even has top 10 potential. To give you an idea, in my opinion, the most well rounded, technical fighter he has fought in the UFC is Klidson Abreu. And I'd imagine most fans would struggle to recall who Klidson is when asked. Nonetheless, the competition put in front of him is out of his control and he has dominated everyone willing to sign the dotted line. A true counterstriker, he will feel you out with jabs and feints but is really trying to get his foe to commit to distance with a strike and retaliate with a bomb. He slips in and out of range beautifully, reading and reacting every second of the fight. Much like McGregor, he is so confident in his range control he often evades strikes by inches in order to stay in range for his counter attack. That maybe one of his flaws as well because I have seen him get clipped when he miscalculates where he is safe and where he is not. He has forced all of his opponents to fight his slow sniping pace because his defense and power are so good. He has gained the respect of his opponents very quickly in all of his fights. He has won his last 5, finishing 4 and KO'ing his last 3. Hand speed is second to none and the accuracy of his strikes are impressive. Most of his damage is done with his hands but his kicks whip opponents with incredible speed and accuracy as well. And while he prefers to stand, he has shown outstanding top control with vicious ground and pound when the fight hits the mat. I often wonder why he doesn't use these other weapons with more regularity. I assume it's to conserve energy. So far his cardio and durability have yet to be questioned in any of his fights. His upcoming bout against Nikita Krylov will be an interesting test. This is a massive step up in competition for Ankalaev. I think for both fighters this will be by far the best striker they have faced in the UFC.

While it seems like Ankalaev is the up and comer because Krylov is a longtime UFC vet with 34 pro fights to his name, they are both 28 years of age. We have watched Krylov grow up and improve dramatically over his UFC career. Krylov made his UFC debut as a chubby, undersized, 20 year old in the heavyweight division. He went 1-1 at heavyweight, knocking out a very good Walt Harris and losing to Soa Paleilei before dropping to his true weight of 205. Krylov being a blackbelt in Kyokushin Karate prefers to stand. Using his length and quick feet to pressure his opponents with sweeping front kicks and powerful punches. Early in his career he would blitz his opponents often finishing them in the 1st or early 2nd round. As he has matured, his aggressive approach seems much more measured. After gassing himself out a few times, I think he has learned the importance of conserving energy because as the competition has stiffened getting his opponent out quickly isn't always an option. Most every fighter he has fought has tried to take the fight to the mat to neutralize his standup. Since 2014 (Age 21), Krylov has gone 11-3 in the UFC. All 3 of those losses have come to elite grapplers in Misha Cirkunov, Glover Teixeira, and current UFC champ Jan Blachowicz. Krylov's ground game has grown immensely since entering the UFC. Takedown defense is much improved and his ability to be offensive on the mat and escape/reverse position have improved as well. When backing Krylov, Id still prefer him to keep the fight standing but I don't think grappling is a weakness for him anymore. My main concern with the grappling is it seems to fatigue him much more rapidly than standing exchanges. Cardio is probably the one area I think Ankalaev has a true advantage over Krylov. Ankalaev has been able to maintain his slow and steady pace and has stayed fresh for all 15 minutes. Krylov has slowed with high paced grappling. But if Krylov is able to dictate pace, maybe we see Ankalaev's cardio get tested? Ankalaev might be the first opponent Krylov has fought that is not be interested in taking the fight to the ground, so it will be interesting to see how fresh Nikita is if this fight goes to the 3rd. Lastly, Krylov's chin is outstanding. He really has never been finished on the feet in his entire career. He has one TKO to his record 8 years ago vs 265lb Soa Paleilei, but really Krylov just gassed himself, rolled over, and gave up. He was not severely rocked by a strike.

Krylov's kicks, length, and power are going to give Ankalaev a little more to think about than any of his recent opponents. I think it's possible we see both fighters try to take this fight to the mat at some point during the fight. I believe Ankalaev should be the favorite as he seems to be the more polished of the two. But Krylov is a very dangerous and high level striker in his own right. All in all, the line just seems too wide to me. I think Krylov has been written off after losing 2 of his last 4 bouts. (Losing to Glover by a razor thin decision and being submitted by the champ Blachowicz). To make matters worse his win over Johnny Walker came 1 fight too late because the Walker hype train was de-railed 1 fight prior and when he loss vs Jan in 2018 we didn't really know how good Blachowicz was. Parlay that with Ankalaev looking invincible and surging on a win streak, you get alot of recency bias. I am not really sure how Krylov wins because I could see him starting slow and feeling out the dangerous Ankalaev or trying to catch him off guard with his normal pressure game. Win or lose I think in either scenario whoever is laying -320+ is going to sweat. If I had to guess, I think the more experienced and battle tested Nikita Krylov takes it by 1st round TKO.
 
Last edited:
smartz

smartz

2
[20-12] +10.62
3* [4-2] +5.12

GRADED:

1/16/21
3*Dusko Todorovic -140 L Closing Line: -175
1*Max Holloway -180 W Closing Line: -160
1*Max Holloway -155 W


1/20/21
1*Mike Davis -180 W Closing Line: -165
1*Tom Breese -122 L Closing Line: -155
1*Tyson Nam -130 L Closing Line: -125
1*Michael Chiesa by Submission +250 L Closing Line: +250


1/23/21
3*Makhmud Muradov +103 W Closing Line: -220
2*Amir Albazi +120 W Closing Line: -120
1*Amir Albazi +105 W
2*Julianna Pena +110 W Closing Line: +100
1*Amanda Ribas -253 L Closing Line: -345
0.5*Amanda Ribas by Submission +275 L Closing Line: +165
1*Under 2.5 Michael Chandler/Dan Hooker -110 W Closing Line: -110
1*Under 2.5 McGregor/Poirier -116 W Closing Line: -190
Hit Chandler +350 KO for 0.25* but only posted it in BB thread. Wont count it


2/6/21
3*Diego Ferreira -110 L Closing Line: +100
2*Alexander Volkov -160 W Closing Line: -170
0.5*Alexander Volkov by KO/TKO/DQ +140 W Closing Line: +100
2*Under 1.5 Rds Devonte Smith/Justin Jaynes -155 L Closing Line: -190
1.25*Frankie Edgar +350 L Closing Line: +280
0.25*Frankie Edgar by decision +500 L Closing Line: +400
1*Alexandre Pantoja -125 W Closing Line: -110
1*Danilo Marques +205 W Closing Line: +195
1*Seung Woo Choi +205 W Closing Line: +200


2/13/21
1*Gabe Green +103 W Closing Line: -140
2*Gabe Green -110 W
1*Under 2.5 Rds Gabe Green/Phil Rowe -135 L Closing Line: -140
2*Chris Gutierrez -150 W Closing Line: -135
1*Chris Gutierrez -125 W
1*Maycee Barber +159 L Closing Line: -115
1*Kelvin Gastelum -219 W Closing Line: -200
1*Anthony Hernandez +300 W Closing Line: +370

PENDING:

2/20/21
3*Drakkar Klose -135
2*Jamall Emmers -155
1*John Castaneda +120
1*Julian Erosa +120

2/27/21
1*Nikita Krylov +250
1*Nikita Krylov +260
1*Thiago Moises +165
1*Maxim Grishin +150

3/6/21
3*Amanda Lemos -104
2*Thiago Santos +232
2*Kyler Phillips +169
2*Over 3.5 Rds Petr Yan/Aljamain Sterling -105
1*Parlay (Jan Blachowicz +225 & Islam Makhachev -310) +330
1*Casey Kenney -108

3/13/21
3*Matheus Nicolau +170
2*Steve Garcia +210
1*Ricardo Ramos +185

3/20/21
2*Derek Brunson +145

3/27/21
2*Stipe Miocic +140

4/9/21 Bellator
2*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov -120
1*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov +110
 
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