[33-27] +12.43
3* [5-3] +4.37
3/20/21
3*Derek Brunson +145
3*Trevin Giles +135
0.5*Trevin Giles Wins Inside the Distance +325
0.5*Trevin Giles Wins Inside the Distance Goes Distance = No Action +185
2*Gustavo Lopez +185
1*Gregor Gillespie -155
Derek Brunson +145 (77" Reach) vs Kevin Holland (81" reach)
Current line: Brunson +160
There are few other fighters getting as much hype as Kevin Holland is right now. Currently on a 5 fight win streak with an incredible stoppage of Jacare Souza in his last bout. Of those 5 wins, Jacare is the only fighter with a winning UFC record (Jacare is showing his age and is currently on a 3 fight losing streak and has dropped 4/5). His mouth and showmanship have garnered him the attention, not the quality of his wins. Holland is a technical striker. He throws a variety of techniques effortlessly with his long rangy frame. His striking is crisp, his chin is tested, he defends well but has a tendency to sit too long in the pocket at times. His cardio is very average. Recently, much is being made of his jiu jitsu after spoiling Jacare and finishing him from his back. But Holland's strength is standing and he is rarely looking to get the fight to the mat. Despite the praise he gets for his bjj, he gets taken to the mat far too frequently. As much as people were impressed by his performance against Jacare, was no one concerned he was on his back in under a minute? When everyone in the building knows that's where Jacare wants to take this fight. In the world of MMA when you start fighting the higher echelon fighters, fighting off your back is almost never advantageous. In Kevin Hollands 10 fight career he has been taken down in 6/10 fights. He was taken down multiple times in 5/10 fights. And just for good measure in those 4 fights in which he wasn't taken down, only 2 takedowns were attempted total by all 4 opponents combined. And lastly, against Thiago Santos and Gerald Meerschaert he was controlled for over 9 minutes in a 3 round bout. I'll admit he can be very slick on the ground but he is for sure no Brian Ortega off his back. I really question how his 52% takedown defense is going to hold up against an All American collegiate wrestler in Derek Brunson (who averages 3+ takedowns per match). And just to get it out of the way, Brunson has never been submitted in his 21 fight UFC/Strikeforce career. Brunson is a brown belt in BJJ and does not seem to hunt for submissions much. However, he uses his weight well and controls his opponents all while delivering heavy ground and pound. No one has ever questioned Brunsons ability but many have questioned his tactics. For a while in his career he became a walking cautionary tale of the wrestler who fell in love with his hands. After going on a 4 fight win streak from 2015-2016 where no takedowns were attempted and he finished all 4 opponents by 1st round KO, Brunson lost sight of what got him to the UFC. From 2016-2018, Brunson continued to rush after his opponents wildly and attempt to overpower them with strikes. During this span he went 2-4, losing by 1st round KO 3x. His stock plummeted and he decided to change his approach. For the first time in his career after 20+ pro fights, he decided to hire a head coach. He shockingly made it this far without someone to help train and gameplan for him. He began working with Henry Hooft and the results have been outstanding. Since joining Sanford MMA, he has gone 3-0, with all 3 bouts going 3 rounds after his string of 1 round mayhem matches. He solved the puzzle of Elias Theodorou, handled a very game Ian Heinisch, and finished an incredibly talented Edmen Shahbazyan. His entire approach has changed. He is patient, manages his energy, re-embraced his high caliber wrestling, and began using his veteran experience to his advantage. He landed 10 takedowns in 3 bouts with Sanford MMA after landing 0 in the 4 matches previous to joining them. I personally think Shahbazyan is a much scarier fighter than Holland and Brunson's patient deliberate approach broke the young man. Last but not least Brunson's chin also has seemed to come back. Absorbing some big shots well in his last 2 fights.
I think Hollands inability to control where the fight takes place is going to loom large in this one. While I expect Brunson to exchange with Holland standing, I also expect him to mix in takedowns and rack up the control time. He will wear Holland out, slow his movement and finish him late. I've cashed on Brunson in 2 straight and think its continues. Derek Brunson by 3rd round TKO.
Trevin Giles +135 (74" Reach) vs Roman Dolidze (75" reach)
Current line: Giles +100
This line is puzzling to me. There is a lot of hype surrounding Dolidze with his grappling background, but he is 2-0 in the UFC and favored to Giles who is 4-2 in the UFC. Dolidze has fought nobody worth mentioning. Roman beat an 0-4 Khadis Ibragimov via 1st round KO and barely snuck out a W vs 0-2 John Allan. Where is Dolidze strong? He is a large man for the division and a very skilled grappler. His striking is clunky though he does have some power behind his shots. His cardio is not great. After controlling John Allan for the 1st round of action he was gassed and nearly loss the fight after a fairly dominant 1st round. Giles on the other hand has fought good UFC caliber talent (beat Ryan Spann, Ike Villanueva, and Brendan Allen prior to UFC) and has for the most part performed well during his 6 fight UFC career. His 2 losses have come via submission which is cause for concern but both were not because he was manhandled on the ground. Poor judgement accounted for the loss vs Meerschaert. Meerschaerts only way to win was to turn the fight into a grappling affair. He was unable to force the fight there and it was actually Giles that allowed for the grappling to occur, rather than exercise his decisive advantage striking. I think Giles at 26 was just overconfident in his abilities and the gameplan was poor. He was winning the fight going into the 3rd and after a failed takedown attempt by Meerschaert Giles decided to take top position rather than separate. Eventually he got submitted during a scramble as Meerschaert was able to grab his neck. In his loss vs Zak Cummings he was 1:00 away from most likely securing a decision win when he got rocked by a haymaker, and Cummings grabbed his neck while he was dazed and ended the fight. While he has been submitted twice he is far from a fish out of water on the mat. In both bouts he defended well, reversed position, and even had Meerschaert mounted a few times.
Trevin's overall skillset is impressive. His footwork is outstanding, his cardio is great, his takedown defense is excellent (pummels underhooks extremely well, 80% takedown defense), his jab is electric, heavy power and great speed in his hands, defends very well (3.57-1.83 landed vs absorbed). In this fight Trevins athleticism, speed, cardio, and skill are going to be massive advantages for him against Dolidze. In my opinion, Dolidze has one round to win this fight. He needs to land a power takedown early and submit Giles before his cardio starts to sap and the fighters get slippery. All while avoiding getting KO'd by Giles heavy hands and finding a way to get him to the mat in the first place. I think Giles has all the tools to make some serious noise in the 185lb division and see him winning by 2nd round KO. I will probably be adding a within the distance bet closer to fight time.
Forgot to mention Dolidze is dropping down to 185lbs for the first time ever and took the fight on 10 days notice. For a guy who has struggled with cardio in the past, I can only think this favors Giles. Giles has also fought and beat bigger men. Spann and Villanueva are both 205'ers.