UFC

This should be a massive mismatch on the feet. Grant struggled with Martin Days striking who fights in a division 10lbs lighter. Nowhere near as technical or powerful as Martinez either. Fight off the takedown attempts and he should be fine
 
Huge knockdown for martinez. Shocked Davey is trying to stand with him. Here come the takedown attempts and Martinez's counter knees

Easy 1-0
 
True split decision imo. Won a coinflip. Kape finished strong but Nicolau controlled the first 4 minutes. Thought Kape may have stole it. Don't listen to the commentators when DC and Rogan are commentating with their friends fighting. DC trains Kape. Too much bias from color commentary
I don’t mind DC but I hear what you’re saying

Bisping drives me crazy though. Dude never shuts up and gives awful analysis imo
 
Fuck that last fight was sickening to watch. Hope he doesn't lose his eyesight...
Took an L tonight.

[33-27] +12.43
3* [5-3] +4.37

3/6/21
1*Parlay (Islam Makhachev -400 (WIN) /Leon Edwards -255/Jonathan Martinez -300) +132 L

3/13/21
3*Misha Cirkunov -125 L Closing Line: -140
1*Leon Edwards -260 No Action
1*Gavin Tucker +110 L Closing Line: +165
1*Gavin Tucker +162 L Closing Line: +165
1*Over 2.5 Rds Manel Kape/Matheus Nicolau -125 W Closing Line: -150
1*Matheus Nicolau +110 W Closing Line: +110
 
[33-27] +12.43
3* [5-3] +4.37

GRADED:

1/16/21
3*Dusko Todorovic -140 L Closing Line: -175
1*Max Holloway -180 W Closing Line: -160
1*Max Holloway -155 W

1/20/21
1*Mike Davis -180 W Closing Line: -165
1*Tom Breese -122 L Closing Line: -155
1*Tyson Nam -130 L Closing Line: -125
1*Michael Chiesa by Submission +250 L Closing Line: +250

1/23/21
3*Makhmud Muradov +103 W Closing Line: -220
2*Amir Albazi +120 W Closing Line: -120
1*Amir Albazi +105 W
2*Julianna Pena +110 W Closing Line: +100
1*Amanda Ribas -253 L Closing Line: -345
0.5*Amanda Ribas by Submission +275 L Closing Line: +165
1*Under 2.5 Michael Chandler/Dan Hooker -110 W Closing Line: -110
1*Under 2.5 McGregor/Poirier -116 W Closing Line: -190
Hit Chandler +350 KO for 0.25* but only posted it in BB thread. Wont count it

2/6/21
3*Diego Ferreira -110 L Closing Line: +100
2*Alexander Volkov -160 W Closing Line: -170
0.5*Alexander Volkov by KO/TKO/DQ +140 W Closing Line: +100
2*Under 1.5 Rds Devonte Smith/Justin Jaynes -155 L Closing Line: -190
1.25*Frankie Edgar +350 L Closing Line: +280
0.25*Frankie Edgar by decision +500 L Closing Line: +400
1*Alexandre Pantoja -125 W Closing Line: -110
1*Danilo Marques +205 W Closing Line: +195
1*Seung Woo Choi +205 W Closing Line: +200

2/13/21
1*Gabe Green +103 W Closing Line: -140
2*Gabe Green -110 W
1*Under 2.5 Rds Gabe Green/Phil Rowe -135 L Closing Line: -140
2*Chris Gutierrez -150 W Closing Line: -135
1*Chris Gutierrez -125 W
1*Maycee Barber +159 L Closing Line: -115
1*Kelvin Gastelum -219 W Closing Line: -200
1*Anthony Hernandez +300 W Closing Line: +370

2/19/21 LFA Bout
1*Nate Davis -145 L Closing Line: -155

2/20/21
1*John Castaneda +120 W Closing Line: -130
1*Julian Erosa +120 W Closing Line: +130
1*Yana Kunitskaya +250 W Closing Line: +235

2/27/21
1*Ciryl Gane -265 W Closing Line: -245
0.5* Ciryl Gane Wins Inside The Distance -105 L Closing Line: -105
1*Nikita Krylov +250 L Closing Line: +250
1*Nikita Krylov +260 L
1*Thiago Moises +165 W Closing Line: +185
1*Maxim Grishin +150 L Closing Line: +140
1*Pedro Munhoz +133 W Closing Line: +110
1*Kevin Croom +162 L Closing Line: +135

3/6/21
3*Amanda Lemos -104 W Closing Line: -225
2*Thiago Santos +232 L Closing Line: +160
2*Kyler Phillips +169 W Closing Line: +160
2*Over 3.5 Rds Petr Yan/Aljamain Sterling -105 W Closing Line: -140
2*Over 1.5 Rds Amanda Nunes/Megan Anderson -115 L Closing Line: -160
2*Fight does not go the distance Dober/Makhachev -105 W Closing Line: -105
1*Parlay (Jan Blachowicz +225 & Islam Makhachev -310) +330 W
1*Casey Kenney -108 L Closing Line: -130
1*Mario Bautista -205 L Closing Line: -240
1*Carlos Ulberg -172 L Closing Line: -240
1*Aljamain Sterling by Decision +350 L Closing Line: +350

3/6/21
1*Parlay (Islam Makhachev -400 (WIN) /Leon Edwards -255/Jonathan Martinez -300) +132 L

3/13/21
3*Misha Cirkunov -125 L Closing Line: -140
1*Leon Edwards -260 No Action
1*Gavin Tucker +110 L Closing Line: +165
1*Gavin Tucker +162 L Closing Line: +165
1*Over 2.5 Rds Manel Kape/Matheus Nicolau -125 W Closing Line: -150
1*Matheus Nicolau +110 W Closing Line: +110

PENDING:

3/20/21
3*Derek Brunson +145
3*Trevin Giles +135
2*Gustavo Lopez +185
1*Gregor Gillespie -155
1*Don'tale Mayes +210

3/27/21
2*Stipe Miocic +140
1*Gillian Robertson +150

4/9/21 Bellator
2*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov -120
1*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov +110

4/10/21
2*Darren Till +125
1*Darren Till +130
2*Nina Ansaroff -110
1*Sodiq Yusuff -145
1*Kyle Daukaus +140
1*Hunter Azure +125

4/16/21 Bellator
1*Phil Davis +149

4/24/21
3*Rose Namajunas +170
 
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Derek Brunson +145 (77" Reach) vs Kevin Holland (81" reach)
Current line: Brunson +140

There are few other fighters getting as much hype as Kevin Holland is right now. Currently on a 5 fight win streak with an incredible stoppage of Jacare Souza in his last bout. Of those 5 wins, Jacare is the only fighter with a winning UFC record (Jacare is showing his age and is currently on a 3 fight losing streak and has dropped 4/5). His mouth and showmanship have garnered him the attention, not the quality of his wins. Holland is a technical striker. He throws a variety of techniques effortlessly with his long rangy frame. His striking is crisp, his chin is tested, he defends well but has a tendency to sit too long in the pocket at times. His cardio is very average. Recently, much is being made of his jiu jitsu after spoiling Jacare and finishing him from his back. But Holland's strength is standing and he is rarely looking to get the fight to the mat. Despite the praise he gets for his bjj, he gets taken to the mat far too frequently. As much as people were impressed by his performance against Jacare, was no one concerned he was on his back in under a minute? When everyone in the building knows that's where Jacare wants to take this fight. In the world of MMA when you start fighting the higher echelon fighters, fighting off your back is almost never advantageous. In Kevin Hollands 10 fight career he has been taken down in 6/10 fights. He was taken down multiple times in 5/10 fights. And just for good measure in those 4 fights in which he wasn't taken down, only 2 takedowns were attempted total by all 4 opponents combined. And lastly, against Thiago Santos and Gerald Meerschaert he was controlled for over 9 minutes in a 3 round bout. I'll admit he can be very slick on the ground but he is for sure no Brian Ortega off his back. I really question how his 52% takedown defense is going to hold up against an All American collegiate wrestler in Derek Brunson (who averages 3+ takedowns per match). And just to get it out of the way, Brunson has never been submitted in his 21 fight UFC/Strikeforce career. Brunson is a brown belt in BJJ and does not seem to hunt for submissions much. However, he uses his weight well and controls his opponents all while delivering heavy ground and pound. No one has ever questioned Brunsons ability but many have questioned his tactics. For a while in his career he became a walking cautionary tale of the wrestler who fell in love with his hands. After going on a 4 fight win streak from 2015-2016 where no takedowns were attempted and he finished all 4 opponents by 1st round KO, Brunson lost sight of what got him to the UFC. From 2016-2018, Brunson continued to rush after his opponents wildly and attempt to overpower them with strikes. During this span he went 2-4, losing by 1st round KO 3x. His stock plummeted and he decided to change his approach. For the first time in his career after 20+ pro fights, he decided to hire a head coach. He shockingly made it this far without someone to help train and gameplan for him. He began working with Henry Hooft and the results have been outstanding. Since joining Sanford MMA, he has gone 3-0, with all 3 bouts going 3 rounds after his string of 1 round mayhem matches. He solved the puzzle of Elias Theodorou, handled a very game Ian Heinisch, and finished an incredibly talented Edmen Shahbazyan. His entire approach has changed. He is patient, manages his energy, re-embraced his high caliber wrestling, and began using his veteran experience to his advantage. He landed 10 takedowns in 3 bouts with Sanford MMA after landing 0 in the 4 matches previous to joining them. I personally think Shahbazyan is a much scarier fighter than Holland and Brunson's patient deliberate approach broke the young man. Last but not least Brunson's chin also has seemed to come back. Absorbing some big shots well in his last 2 fights.

I think Hollands inability to control where the fight takes place is going to loom large in this one. While I expect Brunson to exchange with Holland standing, I also expect him to mix in takedowns and rack up the control time. He will wear Holland out, slow his movement and finish him late. I've cashed on Brunson in 2 straight and think its continues. Derek Brunson by 3rd round TKO.
 
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Trevin Giles +135 (74" Reach) vs Roman Dolidze (75" reach)
Current line: Giles +110

This line is puzzling to me. There is a lot of hype surrounding Dolidze with his grappling background, but he is 2-0 in the UFC and favored to Giles who is 4-2 in the UFC. Dolidze has fought nobody worth mentioning. Roman beat an 0-4 Khadis Ibragimov via 1st round KO and barely snuck out a W vs 0-2 John Allan. Where is Dolidze strong? He is a large man for the division and a very skilled grappler. His striking is clunky though he does have some power behind his shots. His cardio is not great. After controlling John Allan for the 1st round of action he was gassed and nearly loss the fight after a fairly dominant 1st round. Giles on the other hand has fought good UFC caliber talent (beat Ryan Spann, Ike Villanueva, and Brendan Allen prior to UFC) and has for the most part performed well during his 6 fight UFC career. His 2 losses have come via submission which is cause for concern but both were not because he was manhandled on the ground. Poor judgement accounted for the loss vs Meerschaert. Meerschaerts only way to win was to turn the fight into a grappling affair. He was unable to force the fight there and it was actually Giles that allowed for the grappling to occur, rather than exercise his decisive advantage striking. I think Giles at 26 was just overconfident in his abilities and the gameplan was poor. He was winning the fight going into the 3rd and after a failed takedown attempt by Meerschaert Giles decided to take top position rather than separate. Eventually he got submitted during a scramble as Meerschaert was able to grab his neck. In his loss vs Zak Cummings he was 1:00 away from most likely securing a decision win when he got rocked by a haymaker, and Cummings grabbed his neck while he was dazed and ended the fight. While he has been submitted twice he is far from a fish out of water on the mat. In both bouts he defended well, reversed position, and even had Meerschaert mounted a few times.

Trevin's overall skillset is impressive. His footwork is outstanding, his cardio is great, his takedown defense is excellent (pummels underhooks extremely well, 80% takedown defense), his jab is electric, heavy power and great speed in his hands, defends very well (3.57-1.83 landed vs absorbed). In this fight Trevins athleticism, speed, cardio, and skill are going to be massive advantages for him against Dolidze. In my opinion, Dolidze has one round to win this fight. He needs to land a power takedown early and submit Giles before his cardio starts to sap and the fighters get slippery. All while avoiding getting KO'd by Giles heavy hands and finding a way to get him to the mat in the first place. I think Giles has all the tools to make some serious noise in the 185lb division and see him winning by 2nd round KO. I will probably be adding a within the distance bet closer to fight time.
 
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Gustavo Lopez +185 (67" Reach) vs Adrian Yanez (70" reach)
Current line: Lopez +175

Not a whole lot to not like about Yanez. He has impressed mightily in his first two UFC bouts (He has loss by split decision vs other UFC competition he has faced prior. Miles Johns, Domingo Pilarte). For his slight frame he has some serious power for the division. Strikes are lightning quick and throws a variety of techniques well. His takedown defense has been good so far. Really has not been tested vs a quality grappler. While has been finishing most of his foes in the 1st lately, he has gone the distance numerous times which leads me to believe his cardio is at minimum average. There is danger looming everytime he throws his hands. It will be interesting to see how he handles a durable and talented Gustavo Lopez. I am a big fan of Lopez's game. A gritty fighter, he never seems to be out of his opponents face. He takes shots well, his cardio is solid, heavy hands, good wrestling, and pressures well. Lopez is a very fast starter as well but he can maintain the pace. I could very easily see Yanez having to fight off his back foot in this one which isn't typical for him. He generally stalks his opponent with power shots and gets respect early. Yanez is probably the more skilled striker of the two but Lopez has a pace that can wear on you and has very strong grappling to use in his back pocket. I see Gustavo limiting breathing space all fight and limiting opportunity for Yanez's flashy strikes. Make this an ugly fight, clinching against the cage, mixing in takedowns, and landing timely power shots. Gustavo by unanimous decision or 3rd round finish.
 
Gregor Gillespie -155 (71" Reach) vs Brad Riddell (71" reach)
Current line: Gillespie -250

I figured this line would move when I hit the opener but I have a hard time betting with confidence against Brad Riddell. I think the value is on Riddells side with the current line of +210. Riddell is a former pro kickboxer and his striking is outstanding. Utilizes distance well, defends well, and I have nothing but good things to say about his overall game. I think he got a horrible draw in Gillespie though. Prior to Gillespie falling victim to a headkick by Kevin Lee a year and a half ago, he was being touted as the next Khabib. An incredible wrestler he averages over 7 takedowns a contest. His motor is high, his cardio is great, and his strength is unreal. He absolutely ran through the competition in his first 6 UFC bouts. Despite how well Riddell defends takedowns, Gillespie is on another level in the grappling department and it's not hard to see him ragdolling him just like everyone else. This is the fight I am most interested in on the entire card. If Riddell can solve Gillespie, sky is the limit for him. And if Gillespie disposes of him Riddell like the rest, he is right back on track to be guy no one in the division wants to fight. My guess is Gillespie by unanimous decision.
 
PENDING:

3/20/21
3*Derek Brunson +145
3*Trevin Giles +135
0.5*Trevin Giles Wins Inside the Distance +325
0.5*Trevin Giles Wins Inside the Distance Goes Distance = No Action +185

2*Gustavo Lopez +185
1*Gregor Gillespie -155

3/27/21
2*Stipe Miocic +140
2*Alexander Volkanovski -172
1*Gillian Robertson +150

4/9/21 Bellator
2*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov -120
1*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov +110

4/10/21
2*Darren Till +125
1*Darren Till +130
2*Nina Ansaroff -110
1*Sodiq Yusuff -145
1*Kyle Daukaus +140
1*Hunter Azure +125

4/16/21 Bellator
1*Phil Davis +149

4/24/21
3*Rose Namajunas +170
 
PENDING:

3/20/21
3*Derek Brunson +145
3*Trevin Giles +135
0.5*Trevin Giles Wins Inside the Distance +325
0.5*Trevin Giles Wins Inside the Distance Goes Distance = No Action +185
2*Gustavo Lopez +185
1*Gregor Gillespie -155

3/27/21
2*Stipe Miocic +140
2*Alexander Volkanovski -172
1*Gillian Robertson +150

4/9/21 Bellator
2*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov -120
1*Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov +110

4/10/21
2*Darren Till +125
1*Darren Till +130
2*Nina Ansaroff -110
1*Sodiq Yusuff -145
1*Kyle Daukaus +140
1*Hunter Azure +125

4/16/21 Bellator
1*Phil Davis +149

4/17/21
3*Austin Hubbard -105
2*Alexander Romanov +105
1*Drakkar Klose +130
1*Kelvin Gastelum +220
1*Gerald Meerschaert +130


4/24/21
3*Rose Namajunas +170
2*Brendan Allen -145
Quote Reply
 
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[33-27] +12.43
3* [5-3] +4.37

3/20/21
3*Derek Brunson +145
3*Trevin Giles +135
0.5*Trevin Giles Wins Inside the Distance +325
0.5*Trevin Giles Wins Inside the Distance Goes Distance = No Action +185
2*Gustavo Lopez +185
1*Gregor Gillespie -155

Derek Brunson +145 (77" Reach) vs Kevin Holland (81" reach)
Current line: Brunson +160

There are few other fighters getting as much hype as Kevin Holland is right now. Currently on a 5 fight win streak with an incredible stoppage of Jacare Souza in his last bout. Of those 5 wins, Jacare is the only fighter with a winning UFC record (Jacare is showing his age and is currently on a 3 fight losing streak and has dropped 4/5). His mouth and showmanship have garnered him the attention, not the quality of his wins. Holland is a technical striker. He throws a variety of techniques effortlessly with his long rangy frame. His striking is crisp, his chin is tested, he defends well but has a tendency to sit too long in the pocket at times. His cardio is very average. Recently, much is being made of his jiu jitsu after spoiling Jacare and finishing him from his back. But Holland's strength is standing and he is rarely looking to get the fight to the mat. Despite the praise he gets for his bjj, he gets taken to the mat far too frequently. As much as people were impressed by his performance against Jacare, was no one concerned he was on his back in under a minute? When everyone in the building knows that's where Jacare wants to take this fight. In the world of MMA when you start fighting the higher echelon fighters, fighting off your back is almost never advantageous. In Kevin Hollands 10 fight career he has been taken down in 6/10 fights. He was taken down multiple times in 5/10 fights. And just for good measure in those 4 fights in which he wasn't taken down, only 2 takedowns were attempted total by all 4 opponents combined. And lastly, against Thiago Santos and Gerald Meerschaert he was controlled for over 9 minutes in a 3 round bout. I'll admit he can be very slick on the ground but he is for sure no Brian Ortega off his back. I really question how his 52% takedown defense is going to hold up against an All American collegiate wrestler in Derek Brunson (who averages 3+ takedowns per match). And just to get it out of the way, Brunson has never been submitted in his 21 fight UFC/Strikeforce career. Brunson is a brown belt in BJJ and does not seem to hunt for submissions much. However, he uses his weight well and controls his opponents all while delivering heavy ground and pound. No one has ever questioned Brunsons ability but many have questioned his tactics. For a while in his career he became a walking cautionary tale of the wrestler who fell in love with his hands. After going on a 4 fight win streak from 2015-2016 where no takedowns were attempted and he finished all 4 opponents by 1st round KO, Brunson lost sight of what got him to the UFC. From 2016-2018, Brunson continued to rush after his opponents wildly and attempt to overpower them with strikes. During this span he went 2-4, losing by 1st round KO 3x. His stock plummeted and he decided to change his approach. For the first time in his career after 20+ pro fights, he decided to hire a head coach. He shockingly made it this far without someone to help train and gameplan for him. He began working with Henry Hooft and the results have been outstanding. Since joining Sanford MMA, he has gone 3-0, with all 3 bouts going 3 rounds after his string of 1 round mayhem matches. He solved the puzzle of Elias Theodorou, handled a very game Ian Heinisch, and finished an incredibly talented Edmen Shahbazyan. His entire approach has changed. He is patient, manages his energy, re-embraced his high caliber wrestling, and began using his veteran experience to his advantage. He landed 10 takedowns in 3 bouts with Sanford MMA after landing 0 in the 4 matches previous to joining them. I personally think Shahbazyan is a much scarier fighter than Holland and Brunson's patient deliberate approach broke the young man. Last but not least Brunson's chin also has seemed to come back. Absorbing some big shots well in his last 2 fights.

I think Hollands inability to control where the fight takes place is going to loom large in this one. While I expect Brunson to exchange with Holland standing, I also expect him to mix in takedowns and rack up the control time. He will wear Holland out, slow his movement and finish him late. I've cashed on Brunson in 2 straight and think its continues. Derek Brunson by 3rd round TKO.

Trevin Giles +135 (74" Reach) vs Roman Dolidze (75" reach)
Current line: Giles +100

This line is puzzling to me. There is a lot of hype surrounding Dolidze with his grappling background, but he is 2-0 in the UFC and favored to Giles who is 4-2 in the UFC. Dolidze has fought nobody worth mentioning. Roman beat an 0-4 Khadis Ibragimov via 1st round KO and barely snuck out a W vs 0-2 John Allan. Where is Dolidze strong? He is a large man for the division and a very skilled grappler. His striking is clunky though he does have some power behind his shots. His cardio is not great. After controlling John Allan for the 1st round of action he was gassed and nearly loss the fight after a fairly dominant 1st round. Giles on the other hand has fought good UFC caliber talent (beat Ryan Spann, Ike Villanueva, and Brendan Allen prior to UFC) and has for the most part performed well during his 6 fight UFC career. His 2 losses have come via submission which is cause for concern but both were not because he was manhandled on the ground. Poor judgement accounted for the loss vs Meerschaert. Meerschaerts only way to win was to turn the fight into a grappling affair. He was unable to force the fight there and it was actually Giles that allowed for the grappling to occur, rather than exercise his decisive advantage striking. I think Giles at 26 was just overconfident in his abilities and the gameplan was poor. He was winning the fight going into the 3rd and after a failed takedown attempt by Meerschaert Giles decided to take top position rather than separate. Eventually he got submitted during a scramble as Meerschaert was able to grab his neck. In his loss vs Zak Cummings he was 1:00 away from most likely securing a decision win when he got rocked by a haymaker, and Cummings grabbed his neck while he was dazed and ended the fight. While he has been submitted twice he is far from a fish out of water on the mat. In both bouts he defended well, reversed position, and even had Meerschaert mounted a few times.

Trevin's overall skillset is impressive. His footwork is outstanding, his cardio is great, his takedown defense is excellent (pummels underhooks extremely well, 80% takedown defense), his jab is electric, heavy power and great speed in his hands, defends very well (3.57-1.83 landed vs absorbed). In this fight Trevins athleticism, speed, cardio, and skill are going to be massive advantages for him against Dolidze. In my opinion, Dolidze has one round to win this fight. He needs to land a power takedown early and submit Giles before his cardio starts to sap and the fighters get slippery. All while avoiding getting KO'd by Giles heavy hands and finding a way to get him to the mat in the first place. I think Giles has all the tools to make some serious noise in the 185lb division and see him winning by 2nd round KO. I will probably be adding a within the distance bet closer to fight time.
Forgot to mention Dolidze is dropping down to 185lbs for the first time ever and took the fight on 10 days notice. For a guy who has struggled with cardio in the past, I can only think this favors Giles. Giles has also fought and beat bigger men. Spann and Villanueva are both 205'ers.
 
Gustavo Lopez +185 (67" Reach) vs Adrian Yanez (70" reach)
Current line: Lopez +180

Not a whole lot to not like about Yanez. He has impressed mightily in his first two UFC bouts (He has loss by split decision vs other UFC competition he has faced prior. Miles Johns, Domingo Pilarte). For his slight frame he has some serious power for the division. Strikes are lightning quick and throws a variety of techniques well. His takedown defense has been good so far. Really has not been tested vs a quality grappler. While has been finishing most of his foes in the 1st lately, he has gone the distance numerous times which leads me to believe his cardio is at minimum average. There is danger looming everytime he throws his hands. It will be interesting to see how he handles a durable and talented Gustavo Lopez. I am a big fan of Lopez's game. A gritty fighter, he never seems to be out of his opponents face. He takes shots well, his cardio is solid, heavy hands, good wrestling, and pressures well. Lopez is a very fast starter as well but he can maintain the pace. I could very easily see Yanez having to fight off his back foot in this one which isn't typical for him. He generally stalks his opponent with power shots and gets respect early. Yanez is probably the more skilled striker of the two but Lopez has a pace that can wear on you and has very strong grappling to use in his back pocket. I see Gustavo limiting breathing space all fight and limiting opportunity for Yanez's flashy strikes. Make this an ugly fight, clinching against the cage, mixing in takedowns, and landing timely power shots. Gustavo by unanimous decision or 3rd round finish.

Gregor Gillespie -155 (71" Reach) vs Brad Riddell (71" reach)
Current line: Gillespie -270

I figured this line would move when I hit the opener but I have a hard time betting with confidence against Brad Riddell. I think the value is on Riddells side with the current line of +210. Riddell is a former pro kickboxer and his striking is outstanding. Utilizes distance well, defends well, and I have nothing but good things to say about his overall game. I think he got a horrible draw in Gillespie though. Prior to Gillespie falling victim to a headkick by Kevin Lee a year and a half ago, he was being touted as the next Khabib. An incredible wrestler he averages over 7 takedowns a contest. His motor is high, his cardio is great, and his strength is unreal. He absolutely ran through the competition in his first 6 UFC bouts. Despite how well Riddell defends takedowns, Gillespie is on another level in the grappling department and it's not hard to see him ragdolling him just like everyone else. This is the fight I am most interested in on the entire card. If Riddell can solve Gillespie, sky is the limit for him. And if Gillespie disposes of him Riddell like the rest, he is right back on track to be guy no one in the division wants to fight. My guess is Gillespie by unanimous decision.
 
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