UFC

MMA
[93-109] +5.92
3* [14-11] +9.62

GRADED:

6/26/21
3*Jai Herbert +190 L Closing Line: +195
0.5*Jai Herbert +210 L
0.5*Jai Herbert Inside the Distance +325 L Closing Line: +325
1*Alexander Volkov +115 L Closing Line: +130
1*Alexander Volkov +152 L Closing Line:
1*Isaac Villanueva by TKO/KO/DQ +300 L Closing Line: +250
0.25*Isaac Villanueva Win in Round1 +600 L Closing Line: +500
1*Daniel Pineda Inside the Distance +425 No Contest
0.5*Daniel Pineda Inside the Distance. Goes to Decision=No Action +150 No Contest
1*Timur Valiev +180 W Closing Line: +180
0.5*Timur Valiev "Live Bet" +111 W
1*Tim Means -150 W Closing Line: -140
1*Parlay (Shavkat Rakhmonov -300/Under 2.5rds Damir Hadzovic/Yancy Medeiros +125) +200 L Closing Line: -330/+100
1*Under 2.5rds Justin Jaynes/Charles Rosa -125 L Closing Line: -125
1*Kennedy Nzechukwu -130 W Closing Line: -135
1*Kennedy Nzechekwu -140 W

1*Parlay (Shavkat Rakhmonov -300 (WIN)/Zhalgas Zhumagulov -365) -143
 
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MMA
[93-109] +5.92
3* [14-11] +9.62

PENDING:

7/10/21
3*Conor McGregor -125
1*Conor McGregor -105
3*Stephen Thompson -130
3*Trevin Giles +105
2*Greg Hardy +140
1*Parlay (Shavkat Rakhmonov -300 (WIN)/Zhalgas Zhumagulov -365) -143

7/17/21
1*Guram Kutateladze -195

Future Event
3*Colby Covington +250 vs Usman
 
Smartz any chance you will post your analysis for your selections on this Saturday’s huge UFC card?
3*Conor McGregor -125/-105 (74" Reach) vs Dustin Poirier (72" reach)
Current line: McGregor +105

Writeup from 2nd bout
I expect a similar high intensity fight for McGregor/Poirier. Except from a skill and power perspective, I think Conor is far superior. People forget how elite and powerful of a striker Conor is after his fights with Diaz and Khabib. Diaz is a zombie (survived 3 knockdowns in their last fight) that has a unique ability to just eat shots in hopes of you wearing down and beating you late. Khabib is just Khabib and Conor is the only one imo who has made it a real fight with him. However, it is hard to back Conor in a 5 round fight because of his cardio issues. Conor is an uber high energy starter. Uses loads of energy to maintain distance defensively and land big combos offensively. But this fighting style saps energy quick. If Poirier can weather the storm, I think he has a clear cardio/output advantage in rounds 3-5. Rewatching their fight in 2014, it's clear whos strikes carry more weight. I understand it was 6 years ago, but I have a hard time believing the power differential has changed. The play is based on my expectation that Conor finishes the fight in the first 2 rounds if he wins and laying -116 on the total is far more appealing than laying -240 on Conor. (Conor now up to -340 since writing this)

If you strip away the outcome of the 2nd fight and analyze what occurred, there was not a whole lot that Poirier did very effectively aside from calf kicks. McGregor clearly took the 1st round, outlanding Poirier 38-22 (all 3 judges agreed). However, he did absorb quite a bit of damage to that lead leg, which proved to be crucial in the round to come. We all know what eventually transpired. For me a few things come to mind. How often do calf kicks debilitate the opponent? Pretty rare. Not to say they aren't damaging, they clearly are. It has become the most spammed offensive attack in MMA for good reason. But to get the effect Poirier got is not common and most likely a freak occurrence. Especially from a guy who is not known as being an overly effective kicker compared to the likes of someone like Gaethje or Barboza. Second, Conor read the leg kicks well. You can see he angled the shin outward with many oncoming kicks but was not getting the desired effect. Conor seemed puzzled in post fight interviews about why the checks were so ineffective. Poirier commented multiple times that Conor was not angling his leg properly and he was still making contact with the fleshy bits of the shin. Lastly, Conors boxing heavy stance made him ripe for the picking with these types of kicks. A great read by Poirier and he implemented the kicks effectively. Is this something that can be overcome from Conor? I think undoubtedly yes. Conor is an uber athletic striker and on his rise to stardom used much more a karate type stance (link below) that allowed him to dart in and out of range. Being lighter on the lead leg not only allows him to evade more quickly but it puts alot less weight on the leg and limits the effectiveness of the strike if it lands. The fact that he was reading the kicks well and can easily adopt a stance he has used for his entire career gives me the feeling that calf kicks probably won't be a big factor in this one. Why did he go boxing heavy? Rumors have swirled that he was overlooking Poirier and was training for Pacquiao. Both of which make sense to me, but I obviously couldn't tell you with 100% certainty. Could also be that he instituted a more flat footed approach to spare the gas tank for later rounds. Whatever the reason, with how unsuccessful he was, I have a hard time seeing him going back to the boxing heavy approach.

One big takeaway from his rematch with Diaz, is Conor is willing and fully capable to adopting a new strategy. In the Diaz 2 fight, he implemented better distance control and was heavy on the leg kick offensive to counter Diaz's boxing heavy approach. Reviewing the tape of Conor/Poirier 2, you're left wondering where are the kicks? Conor handcuffed himself and didn't use any of his other tools. For example, his front kick is a weapon. It not only maintains distance effectively but it forces his opponents to be honest with their defense. You can't shell up for headshots when your torso is getting lit up. His approach was far too predictable for a fighter of Poirier's caliber. The fight with Diaz got close late despite the early offensive onslaught because his cardio issues reared their ugly head as we got deeper into the fight. That I don't see changing. if the fight goes deeper, Poirier will gain some significant advantages with his cardio/durability.

Again I see Conor as being the far superior striker if he uses all of his tools effectively and doesn't pigeon hole himself as a boxer. I think there is considerable value on Conor as well as he was priced in the -300 range last bout and is now a short pooch. I personally think the appropriate price is closer to -180/-200. But if this fight gets to round 3, I will most likely be hedging via live bets on Dustin. If all goes as planned you should be able to get Poirier at a more affordable price by then as well. In summary, I see Conor making alot of adjustments this time around. Allowing him to maximize his strengths and end the fight via round 2 TKO.
 
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3*Trevin Giles +105 (74" Reach) vs Dricus Du Plessis (76" reach)
Current line: Giles -105

This is my favorite wager on the card and this line is a bit of a head scratcher to me. Du Plessis came in as a highly touted prospect out of South Africa and won via 1st round KO in his first UFC bout. My take is the hype train is continuing to roll given his debut. Dricus does not resemble what I'd expect out of a 15-2 fighter. Not a great athlete, he is very stiff in his movements, and tends to wing blitz attacks ala Tyron Woodley but without the same type of speed or explosivity. Where Du Plessis shines is in his durability and finishing ability. However, I don't think he outshines Giles in either of those attributes. Giles has successfully faced bigger, stronger, more skilled fighters in the past. Beating the likes of guys like Ryan Spann (205'er) and Ike Villanueva (205'er). As well as Brendan Allen, Dolidze, Krause.

I don't have a whole lot to say in this one because to me Giles is just the far superior fighter. By far the more technical of the two, better defender, probably has the power advantage, more athletic, faster, and faced better competition. I think Giles can finish this fight but he has a tendency to stay safe and pick his opponents off from range even when they are hurt. My prediction is Giles puts on a clinic and cruises to unanimous decision
 
MMA
[93-109] +5.92
3* [14-11] +9.62

PENDING:

7/10/21
3*Conor McGregor -125
1*Conor McGregor -105
3*Stephen Thompson -130
3*Trevin Giles +105
2*Greg Hardy +140
1*Michel Perreira -162
1*Yana Kunitskaya +107
1*Parlay (Shavkat Rakhmonov -300 (WIN)/Zhalgas Zhumagulov -365) -143

7/17/21

7/24/21
3*Tony Kelley +135
3*Darren Elkins +125
1*Julio Arce -179


Future Event
3*Colby Covington +250 vs Usman
 
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3*Stephen Thompson -130 (75" Reach) vs Gilbert Burns (71" reach)
Current line: Thompson -165

2nd favorite wager on the card. In theory this matchup feels like it could be -250+ depending on who can dictate where the fight takes place. Thompson realistically has no answer if Burns can control him on the mat. Burns BJJ super legit. But does the fight get there? That is where I have serious doubts. Do not see Burns having the ability to cut distance and get a hold of Wonderboy. Too elusive, too slick, and far too dangerous to do his normal blitzes on. I expect Burns to do his normal balls to the wall approach early on but just see him getting picked apart on the feet. Eventually walking into a fight ending counter. If Geoff Neal and Vicente Luques grade A chins didn't hold up when getting dismantled by Thompson, I'd expect this line to be easy -200+. Decision wins don't get the love a finish does. Burns does not have near the durability those two have but he does have a dangerous BJJ game if he can somehow get Thompson flattened. That is why I am playing does not go the distance as well. Either Burns does what I think he can't or Thompson does what I think he can. Do not see this fight making the final bell. Stephen Thompson by 1st round KO.
 
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2*Greg Hardy +140 (80" Reach) vs Tai Tuivasa (75" reach)
Current line: Hardy +115

If I had more confidence in Hardy's game I'd bet this bigger. We know what he can do, throw hammers. If he had a takedown in him this fight is over. The thing with Hardy is he is learning as he goes and for all I know he may be ready to introduce a grappling/ground n pound game. He has improved mightily with each fight. His defense, counters, cardio, and ring IQ all continue to improve. He did take a step back in his last fight with Tybura by gassing and getting finished. Things to consider, Tybura's durability is top notch. Hardy had him on deaths door and blew his load trying to get the finish. Not the best decision he has ever made but after all, it is Greg Hardy. He has made worse decisions in the past. At least this time it was against a 260lb man. Just as he's made adjustments with all other facets of his game I expect Hardy to learn from the setback. I don't think his cardio is shit as most are making it out to be after his last bout. Cardio held up in an ass whooping to Volkov over 3 as well as a decision win vs De Castro. I think its just a case of him emptying the tank trying to finish Tybura. Skill for skill, I don't think Tuivasa has anything on Hardy. Tuivasa a power puncher himself, has also had issues with cardio in the past. He also has no ground game worth mentioning. What I'm confident in is that Hardy is the bigger man, 5 inch reach advantage, the better athlete, the more powerful puncher, and is a willing student of the game. Whereas Tuivasa has been fairly public about him just wanting to stand and bang for the entirety of his career. Assuming Hardy has learned nothing in the 7 months since his loss, I'd still line Hardy in the -110/-140 range on past performances alone. Greg Hardy via 3rd Rd TKO
 
MMA
[93-109] +5.92
3* [14-11] +9.62

PENDING:

7/10/21
3*Trevin Giles +105
1*Trevin Giles +100
3*Conor McGregor -125
1*Conor McGregor -105
3*Stephen Thompson -130
0.5*Stephen Thompson via KO/TKO/DQ +250
2*Gilbert Burns/Stephen Thompson Does Not Go the Distance +100

2*Greg Hardy +140
1*Michel Perreira -162
0.5*Michel Perreira by KO/TKO/DQ +225
1*Michel Pereira/Niko Price Does Not Start Round 3 -110

1*Yana Kunitskaya +107
1*Parlay (Shavkat Rakhmonov -300 (WIN)/Zhalgas Zhumagulov -365) -143

7/17/21

7/24/21
3*Darren Elkins +125
1*Julio Arce -179

Future Event
3*Colby Covington +250 vs Usman
 
Cant believe where this McGregor line is going. Thought -105 was a bargain. Wish I waited
Lots of places offering +200 or more for Conor to get the KO/TKO...think that's a better bet than getting short dog money to win the fight? Doesn't sound like you think he can survive a full fight and win anyways?
 
Lots of places offering +200 or more for Conor to get the KO/TKO...think that's a better bet than getting short dog money to win the fight? Doesn't sound like you think he can survive a full fight and win anyways?
I do. But part of me thinks he can get out way ahead and limp to victory late like the Diaz fight. At the price he's at I'm willing to leave the door open for a decision win. But you're right, I think his win condition lies heavily on a finish.
 
Live bet opportunity in the next bout. Omari Akhmedov's cardio is not good. I'm expecting a competitive first round and hopefully catch Tavares at a cheaper price entering round 2.
 
No idea how this next one goes. No one really knows how good Topuria is. Grappling has looked excellent so far but imagine Hall is superior. I fear Topuria too young and too confident and will chase Hall to the mat. His path to victory is on the feet
 
People keep commenting on Topurias superior wrestling. Doubt it matters here. Hall never goes for conventional takedowns. He's about as unique a fighter out there.
 
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