Uh Oh, Fezz loves Boston BIG.....Damn...

TomBrady#1

EOG Dedicated
#1
He is a copycat as several big time sharps love the Celts.


Steve Fezzik
<s>@</s>FezzikSports
I played Denver small tonight, but the best bet is Boston game 1 -5 and even better, Series -215......
 
#3
Re: Uh Oh, Fezz loves Boston BIG.....Damn...

Hmmm he even likes them in the Series.

I think Boston wins tonight, so I might buy some Sixers tomorrow. :btj:
 

TomBrady#1

EOG Dedicated
#4
Re: Uh Oh, Fezz loves Boston BIG.....Damn...

Lost game 1 ATS but Celtics and Fezz did his MUSH JOB on the Celts who looked terrible. THey did win the game and up 1-0 despite Fezz predictions.
 

Chuck Sims

EOG Dedicated
#7
Re: Uh Oh, Fezz loves Boston BIG.....Damn...

Steve Fezzik<S>@</S>FezzikSportsI played Denver small tonight, but the best bet is Boston game 1 -5 and even better, Series -215......

Fade Fezzik continues to shine. God awful is now the norm for the man who can't pick his nose.
 
#8
Re: Uh Oh, Fezz loves Boston BIG.....Damn...

Weird thing is that he only released Boston as a 1 weight to his service. Half the time it seems like he doesn't even know what he gives out as his best bet on the radio or twitter vs his service. There was one week he gave out a best bet on some EOG related thing that he never even gave out to his service until someone reminded him, and even then it was only his 4th highest play of the week. But when you're throwing darts and flipping coins I guess it doesn't matter.

His other highlight was posting DEN +6 the day before the game when the WA line was +5.5 and claimed the line would "crash down to +5.5 on game day." That's one way to beat the closing line, claiming that it would "crash down" to the current line.

He managed to salvage one winner on the day though, posting an in running bet on the DEN/LAL under sometime during the first quarter. I'm sure plenty of subscribers got down on that one.
 
#9
Re: Uh Oh, Fezz loves Boston BIG.....Damn...

I don't know what's worse, Fezzwick trying to deceive the public or his 5 year losing streak elling plays to the public.
 

Heim

EOG Master
#11
Re: Uh Oh, Fezz loves Boston BIG.....Damn...

From Fezzik a half hour ago:


"I don't check final scores anymore......I just glance at message boards, if there aren't any posts discussing my plays, I know I've won"



:lol


 
#12
Re: Uh Oh, Fezz loves Boston BIG.....Damn...

What a turd. I'm certainly one of his most vocal critics and I don't think I've ever criticized him for the result of any particular play. When he brags after a pick loses by 20 because he beat the closing line when he only beat the closing line because he posted an unavailable line in the first place, I criticize him for lying about beating the closing line, not about the result.

Funny thing is that he only won 1.9u today on real picks, with a 1u garbage prop (I actually liked the same prop at a slightly better line and was able to bet a whopping $350 on it), which I believe finally pulls him into the black for the playoffs at +1.8u on real bets, ignoring prop/live betting/stuff available at one book garbage. It takes a lot of balls to lose, and lose, and lose some more over a very long period of time and when you go on a good run for a few days call attention to yourself as if your critics are only complaining about a handful of bad losses, not 7 years worth of losses.

He pulled off a typical move today, Bookmaker was the last major book to move from Celtics +2.5 to +2 at 742am Pacific, and right after the move he posted Celtics +2.5. A subscriber asked if any book had Celtics +2.5 at the time Fezzwick posted, and Fezzwick said "Bookmaker had it and Greek had +2.5 -115, but it moved fast, so I'll grade it at +2." That makes his subscribers think he's grading plays honestly, when anyone with half a clue can tell he posted it right after the line move and only adjusted the grading because someone called him on it.
 
#13
Re: Uh Oh, Fezz loves Boston BIG.....Damn...

What a turd. I'm certainly one of his most vocal critics and I don't think I've ever criticized him for the result of any particular play. When he brags after a pick loses by 20 because he beat the closing line when he only beat the closing line because he posted an unavailable line in the first place, I criticize him for lying about beating the closing line, not about the result.

Funny thing is that he only won 1.9u today on real picks, with a 1u garbage prop (I actually liked the same prop at a slightly better line and was able to bet a whopping $350 on it), which I believe finally pulls him into the black for the playoffs at +1.8u on real bets, ignoring prop/live betting/stuff available at one book garbage. It takes a lot of balls to lose, and lose, and lose some more over a very long period of time and when you go on a good run for a few days call attention to yourself as if your critics are only complaining about a handful of bad losses, not 7 years worth of losses.

He pulled off a typical move today, Bookmaker was the last major book to move from Celtics +2.5 to +2 at 742am Pacific, and right after the move he posted Celtics +2.5. A subscriber asked if any book had Celtics +2.5 at the time Fezzwick posted, and Fezzwick said "Bookmaker had it and Greek had +2.5 -115, but it moved fast, so I'll grade it at +2." That makes his subscribers think he's grading plays honestly, when anyone with half a clue can tell he posted it right after the line move and only adjusted the grading because someone called him on it.
I opened the Greek line at -2.5 flat and from there I went to -2.5 -105 to -2 flat. And PS: Fezzik didn't bet me +2.5. I guess it was just another one of those none existing lines...LOL...
 

Heim

EOG Master
#14
Re: Uh Oh, Fezz loves Boston BIG.....Damn...

Interesting how Fezzik is slowly trying to assert himself as a in-game expert in a effort
to diffuse some of the heat from his capping demise. Now (twitter) he'll be trying
to gain a edge with in-game WNBA. Who the hell can watch one of those games?

In-game is a waste of time and 99% lose.....try it next time you're at a Cantor
property......Nonetheless, Fezzik trying to assimilate in-game wagering into his
arsenal. Gezz Fezz isn't it hard enough to get down on your numbers pre-flop?
 
#15
Re: Uh Oh, Fezz loves Boston BIG.....Damn...

I opened the Greek line at -2.5 flat and from there I went to -2.5 -105 to -2 flat. And PS: Fezzik didn't bet me +2.5. I guess it was just another one of those none existing lines...LOL...
According to SBR's line history, Greek was dealing +2.5 -115 when he posted and moved to +2 5 minutes later, so he was at least honest about that one, but when he posted he never said anything about -115, and a 1% difference is pretty significant.
 

Heim

EOG Master
#16
Re: Uh Oh, Fezz loves Boston BIG.....Damn...

"......I gave out Wade UND 23 +110......Wade "I have to find NON SCORING ways I can help us win"



I believe Fezzik's brother posted a list '10 biggest mistakes gamblers make' and over-reacting
to one ga
me was on that list....
 

Bagiant

EOG Dedicated
#18
Re: Uh Oh, Fezz loves Boston BIG.....Damn...

Do you realize that if you turn the Fezzik "Z" on their side..it will give you his real name!
 
#19
Re: Uh Oh, Fezz loves Boston BIG.....Damn...

I tell you what, I had the Celts pretty good as did many others but did not like seeing Fezzik preaching Boston as bad as he has been for a few years. Phili hung tough and the Boston injuries helped with that...but Boston was better. CHalk one up for the sharps too......
 
#20
Re: Uh Oh, Fezz loves Boston BIG.....Damn...

I tell you what, I had the Celts pretty good as did many others but did not like seeing Fezzik preaching Boston as bad as he has been for a few years. Phili hung tough and the Boston injuries helped with that...but Boston was better. CHalk one up for the sharps too......

Who didn't know the Celtics were the bet.

:+clueless
 

GameBred

I Trade Therefore I Am
#22
Re: Uh Oh, Fezz loves Boston BIG.....Damn...

Groovin,

Pardon my ignorance and can you please explain the 1% difference you were referring to and how you came to that figure?

Please advise. Thank you.
 
#23
Re: Uh Oh, Fezz loves Boston BIG.....Damn...

Groovin,

Pardon my ignorance and can you please explain the 1% difference you were referring to and how you came to that figure?
Fezzik posted +2.5, implying the line was available somewhere at -110. -110 corresponds to a probability of 52.38% (110/(110+100)). The only major offshore that he was able to quote with +2.5 when he posted was Greek +2.5 -115. -115 corresponds to 53.49%, so the required win rate to win at -115 vs -110 is about 1% more (more precisely, 1.11%.)
 

GameBred

I Trade Therefore I Am
#24
Re: Uh Oh, Fezz loves Boston BIG.....Damn...

Thank you very much for your response Groovin. I feel silly now, as I understand win probabilities but never made the connection. I was trying to divide 115/110, and variations of that; ridiculous I know.

Thanks again Groovin.
 
#25
Re: Uh Oh, Fezz loves Boston BIG.....Damn...

Fezzik posted +2.5, implying the line was available somewhere at -110. -110 corresponds to a probability of 52.38% (110/(110+100)). The only major offshore that he was able to quote with +2.5 when he posted was Greek +2.5 -115. -115 corresponds to 53.49%, so the required win rate to win at -115 vs -110 is about 1% more (more precisely, 1.11%.)
That is the break-even point, not the win probability.
 

GameBred

I Trade Therefore I Am
#26
Re: Uh Oh, Fezz loves Boston BIG.....Damn...

Thanks Doughboy, I appreciate your due diligence. Baseball ML's renting space in my brain:) Nonetheless, I understood Groovin's explanation.

In regards to the "win probabality" vs. break even point, is this just a question of semantics though? I understand you need to win 52.38% of your plays when laying the 10-cents to just break even. However, If you think or your model suggests they cover the +2.5, say 55% of the time, you fire on it and take the best of it by about 2.5 percentage points despite the 10-cent juice. Correct? And you are basing this decision on win probability, are you not?

You're basically collecting $55 when a quarter comes up heads and paying out $52.40 when it comes up tails. I know that's the idiot's version to gambling math but the premise holds?

Just trying to learn, thanks.
 
#27
Re: Uh Oh, Fezz loves Boston BIG.....Damn...

No, BE and win probability are two different things.

Yes, if you think a team covers the +2.5 55% of the time you should make the bet at -110. If I think a team should be, say, Pick'em and they're at +2.5, then I perceive there is a slight edge against the house. You can use a half-point calculator to figure out the alleged edge. Just beat the closing line and don't worry about the rest.
 

GameBred

I Trade Therefore I Am
#28
Re: Uh Oh, Fezz loves Boston BIG.....Damn...

Good advice DB, thanks. I guess I never gave much thought to the differences between BE and win probability. I always thought they went hand-in-hand. I am trying to tighten up my quantitative game so to speak and you and Groovin have already helped, much appreciated.
 
#29
Re: Uh Oh, Fezz loves Boston BIG.....Damn...

That is the break-even point, not the win probability.
Nowhere in his post does he mention "win probability".

In regards to the "win probabality" vs. break even point, is this just a question of semantics though?
Yes. Doughboy is unnecessarily complicating things. All the information you need for this exercise was contained in groovin's original post.
 
#30
Re: Uh Oh, Fezz loves Boston BIG.....Damn...

I understand how moneylines convert to break evens, but is the moneyline also what the casino believes is the win probability?

Example: The LA Kings are -175 for the series vs NJ Devils. Does this mean that the casino thinks LA has a 63.6% (175/(175+100)) win probability (or chance) to win the Stanley Cup?

Also, do people use their data bases to calculate win probability and then convert the casino moneyline to win probability and then reconcile the two to calculate your advantage?
 
#31
Re: Uh Oh, Fezz loves Boston BIG.....Damn...

Nowhere in his post does he mention "win probability".



Yes. Doughboy is unnecessarily complicating things. All the information you need for this exercise was contained in groovin's original post.
Reread what he stated:

"Fezzik posted +2.5, implying the line was available somewhere at -110. -110 corresponds to a probability of 52.38% (110/(110+100)). The only major offshore that he was able to quote with +2.5 when he posted was Greek +2.5 -115. -115 corresponds to 53.49%, so the required win rate to win at -115 vs -110 is about 1% more (more precisely, 1.11%.)"

I agree with his math, but I still think it is worded poorly. And no, win probability and BE are two different things. If you have +2.5 -110 and -2.5 -110 as a closing line at Pinny (which we will use for the sake of argument, even though Pinny doesn't deal -110 lines), then the win probability is 50% per side, but the BE is 52.38%. It's not the same thing which is why I took umbrage at his choice of words.
 
#33
Re: Uh Oh, Fezz loves Boston BIG.....Damn...

Jeez, get over it. He used the words "win rate" and "-110 corresponds to a probability of 52.38%". Probability of 52.38% of what, if not wins?
 
#35
Re: Uh Oh, Fezz loves Boston BIG.....Damn...

Probability and win probability are two different things. If you think breakeven probability is more clear, feel free to say that. I actually originally typed "breakeven rate" but thought that sounded excessively wordy.
 

GameBred

I Trade Therefore I Am
#38
Re: Uh Oh, Fezz loves Boston BIG.....Damn...

Hey Fellas,

Just seeing this now. I am the one who used the term "win probabality" not Groovin.

PC, At first I thought DB was unnecassarily complicating things because I was all confused but upon further review I revised that opinion. I found the exchanges edifying if not somewhat confusing at first:)
 
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