Glaken
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Unbeaten teams could cause perfect BCS storm
<HR width="100%" noShade SIZE=1>By Brad Edwards
Special to ESPN.com
With only nine teams still unbeaten at the unofficial halfway point of college football's regular season, statistical logic says the odds to end with more than two perfect teams are extremely slim.
In addition to the fact that it's difficult to win five or six more games in a row against opposition that mostly ranks among the upper half of Division I-A, there is also the "cannibalization process" by which these undefeated teams eliminate each other. Penn State, for example, is the only unbeaten that can finish its pre-bowl schedule without the possibility of meeting another team that currently has a perfect record.
It sounds like a natural selection case study. The pretenders will be weeded out, and the contenders will be left to play in the BCS title game.
You would have thought so last year, too.
<!---------------------INLINE TABLE (BEGIN)---------------------><TABLE id=inlinetable cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width=198 align=right border=0><TBODY><TR><TH style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #000000" colSpan=3><CENTER>Undefeated teams on Oct. 10
(* finished regular season undefeated)</CENTER></TH><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" vAlign=top><TD>League </TD><TD>2004 </TD><TD>2005 </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD>ACC </TD><TD>Miami, Virginia </TD><TD>Va. Tech, Florida State </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD>Big 12 </TD><TD>Oklahoma*, OSU </TD><TD>Texas, Texas Tech </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD>Pac-10 </TD><TD>USC*, Arizona State </TD><TD>USC, UCLA </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD>Big Ten </TD><TD>Purdue, Wisconsin </TD><TD>Penn State </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD>SEC </TD><TD>Auburn* </TD><TD>Georgia, Alabama </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!---------------------INLINE TABLE (END)--------------------->
At this same point in the 2004 season, there were 13 undefeated teams. But a closer look reveals that four of them were from non-automatic-qualifying conferences, meaning there were nine from the major conferences -- just as there are right now. And like this time last year, there were four AQ conferences that each had two unbeaten teams and one major conference with a single unbeaten team.
That single team a year ago was Auburn and, like Penn State this year, it was the only one of the bunch not on a collision course with another perfect team. Needless to say, Auburn went through the rest of its schedule unscathed. Obviously, two of the other eight teams did, as well, and that led to national consternation over the BCS.
Could it happen again?
The blueprint does look remarkably similar to a year ago, but that doesn't necessarily mean anything. It's still very possible there could be two or fewer unbeaten teams and a relatively uneventful end to the regular season. It's also possible, however, for scenarios to unfold that could be much more controversial than what happened in 2004.
The paradox of college football is that controversy is a product of excitement. And in order for what would be arguably the most controversial situation of all-time to unfold, what would be arguably the most exciting day in college football history would have to take place. And it could all happen on the first weekend of December.
One major difference between this season and last season is timing. Of the four midseason possibilities for matchups of undefeated teams a year ago, three were scheduled in October (two actually materialized). Of the four possibilities for unbeaten teams to meet later this year, three would take place on the final day of the regular season.
Try this on for size.
It's Dec. 3, and you are settling into your living room to watch a full day of football. Perhaps the Penn State players and coaches, having completed an 11-0 regular season, are also sitting around their TV sets and waiting for the events of the day to unfold.
It starts with the Big 12 championship game, featuring undefeated Texas (or undefeated Texas Tech). The Longhorns would likely be a prohibitive favorite over whatever team represents the North division, but anytime an undefeated team is playing on the final day of the season, there's always drama for at least the first few minutes. And if Texas wins, it kind of makes the rest of the day even better ... unless you're one of those Nittany Lions.
The next game on ABC is UCLA (10-0) at USC (10-0). Not only is this for the Pac-10 title, but there are also clearly national title implications. If the Trojans finish off an undefeated regular season, they will be one win away from a third straight championship. If the Bruins pull off the upset, you never know what such a monumental win could do to their standing in the polls (not to mention the BCS computers). Sounds like a few hours of good drama at the L.A. Coliseum.
After that game, there will be dueling conference championship tilts in primetime. In the ACC, it's 11-0 Florida State against 11-0 Virginia Tech. In the SEC, it's 11-0 Alabama vs. 11-0 Georgia. And if Texas and USC have already won their games, you can be almost certain that one of these title winners will be left out of the BCS Championship -- if not both of them.
Think that day would be intense? Just wait until the following day when the final BCS standings are released.
If this scenario miraculously played out, or even if there were three or four undefeated teams at the end of the regular season, it would not necessarily shake down the same way it did a year ago. Last season, Auburn finished third in the polls but was also third in the computers, which made a difficult situation a little easier because of the agreement between all elements of the BCS formula.
The difference this season is that Texas, which is currently a solid No. 2 in both human polls, is not even close to being the second-best team in the computers right now. The Longhorns have beaten Ohio State and Oklahoma but are ranked eighth by both the Sagarin and Colley ratings, which were the only ones to have published at the time of this writing. The schedule strength will improve when Texas plays Colorado and Texas Tech the next two weeks, but it still won't be as tough as what the other undefeated teams have in front of them the rest of the way. The Big 12 is down, the Buckeyes are out of the Top 10 and it all adds up to possible trouble for the Longhorns.
Translation: Among all the undefeated teams at the end of the regular season, Texas may rank last in the computer element of the BCS formula, which could open the door to the Longhorns getting jumped in the standings by the No. 3 team in the polls. Penn State is currently the highest-rated team in the computers, followed by Florida State, Alabama, Georgia, USC and Virginia Tech.
All Texas can really do is keep winning convincingly and hope those other teams lose. A loss by USC would be most beneficial, although just having the Trojans continue to look vulnerable could pay dividends, as well. If the Longhorns' point totals in the polls continue to be closer to first than they are to third, that might be enough to hold off any challengers.
Is this only the second week of October? It already has the feel of November.
This could be another really fun finish.
<!---------------------INLINE TABLE (BEGIN)---------------------><TABLE id=inlinetable cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width=420 border=0><TBODY><TR><TH style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #000000"><CENTER>Mock BCS standings</CENTER></TH><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD width=416>1. USC Trojans (5-0) </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD width=416>2. Virginia Tech Hokies (6-0) </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD width=416>3. Florida State Seminoles (5-0) </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD width=416>4. Texas Longhorns (5-0) </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD width=416>5. Georgia Bulldogs (5-0) </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD width=416>6. Alabama Crimson Tide (5-0) </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD width=416>7. Penn State Nittany Lions (6-0) </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD width=416>8. Miami Hurricanes (4-1) </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD width=416>9. LSU Tigers (3-1) </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD width=416>10. Florida Gators (5-1) </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD width=416>11. UCLA Bruins (5-0) </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD width=416>12. Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-0) </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD width=416>* Through games of Oct. 8 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!---------------------INLINE TABLE (END)--------------------->The first official BCS Standings of the season will be released on Monday, Oct. 17.
<HR width="100%" noShade SIZE=1>By Brad Edwards
Special to ESPN.com
With only nine teams still unbeaten at the unofficial halfway point of college football's regular season, statistical logic says the odds to end with more than two perfect teams are extremely slim.
In addition to the fact that it's difficult to win five or six more games in a row against opposition that mostly ranks among the upper half of Division I-A, there is also the "cannibalization process" by which these undefeated teams eliminate each other. Penn State, for example, is the only unbeaten that can finish its pre-bowl schedule without the possibility of meeting another team that currently has a perfect record.
It sounds like a natural selection case study. The pretenders will be weeded out, and the contenders will be left to play in the BCS title game.
You would have thought so last year, too.
<!---------------------INLINE TABLE (BEGIN)---------------------><TABLE id=inlinetable cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width=198 align=right border=0><TBODY><TR><TH style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #000000" colSpan=3><CENTER>Undefeated teams on Oct. 10
(* finished regular season undefeated)</CENTER></TH><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" vAlign=top><TD>League </TD><TD>2004 </TD><TD>2005 </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD>ACC </TD><TD>Miami, Virginia </TD><TD>Va. Tech, Florida State </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD>Big 12 </TD><TD>Oklahoma*, OSU </TD><TD>Texas, Texas Tech </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD>Pac-10 </TD><TD>USC*, Arizona State </TD><TD>USC, UCLA </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD>Big Ten </TD><TD>Purdue, Wisconsin </TD><TD>Penn State </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD>SEC </TD><TD>Auburn* </TD><TD>Georgia, Alabama </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!---------------------INLINE TABLE (END)--------------------->
At this same point in the 2004 season, there were 13 undefeated teams. But a closer look reveals that four of them were from non-automatic-qualifying conferences, meaning there were nine from the major conferences -- just as there are right now. And like this time last year, there were four AQ conferences that each had two unbeaten teams and one major conference with a single unbeaten team.
That single team a year ago was Auburn and, like Penn State this year, it was the only one of the bunch not on a collision course with another perfect team. Needless to say, Auburn went through the rest of its schedule unscathed. Obviously, two of the other eight teams did, as well, and that led to national consternation over the BCS.
Could it happen again?
The blueprint does look remarkably similar to a year ago, but that doesn't necessarily mean anything. It's still very possible there could be two or fewer unbeaten teams and a relatively uneventful end to the regular season. It's also possible, however, for scenarios to unfold that could be much more controversial than what happened in 2004.
The paradox of college football is that controversy is a product of excitement. And in order for what would be arguably the most controversial situation of all-time to unfold, what would be arguably the most exciting day in college football history would have to take place. And it could all happen on the first weekend of December.
One major difference between this season and last season is timing. Of the four midseason possibilities for matchups of undefeated teams a year ago, three were scheduled in October (two actually materialized). Of the four possibilities for unbeaten teams to meet later this year, three would take place on the final day of the regular season.
Try this on for size.
It's Dec. 3, and you are settling into your living room to watch a full day of football. Perhaps the Penn State players and coaches, having completed an 11-0 regular season, are also sitting around their TV sets and waiting for the events of the day to unfold.
It starts with the Big 12 championship game, featuring undefeated Texas (or undefeated Texas Tech). The Longhorns would likely be a prohibitive favorite over whatever team represents the North division, but anytime an undefeated team is playing on the final day of the season, there's always drama for at least the first few minutes. And if Texas wins, it kind of makes the rest of the day even better ... unless you're one of those Nittany Lions.
The next game on ABC is UCLA (10-0) at USC (10-0). Not only is this for the Pac-10 title, but there are also clearly national title implications. If the Trojans finish off an undefeated regular season, they will be one win away from a third straight championship. If the Bruins pull off the upset, you never know what such a monumental win could do to their standing in the polls (not to mention the BCS computers). Sounds like a few hours of good drama at the L.A. Coliseum.
After that game, there will be dueling conference championship tilts in primetime. In the ACC, it's 11-0 Florida State against 11-0 Virginia Tech. In the SEC, it's 11-0 Alabama vs. 11-0 Georgia. And if Texas and USC have already won their games, you can be almost certain that one of these title winners will be left out of the BCS Championship -- if not both of them.
Think that day would be intense? Just wait until the following day when the final BCS standings are released.
If this scenario miraculously played out, or even if there were three or four undefeated teams at the end of the regular season, it would not necessarily shake down the same way it did a year ago. Last season, Auburn finished third in the polls but was also third in the computers, which made a difficult situation a little easier because of the agreement between all elements of the BCS formula.
The difference this season is that Texas, which is currently a solid No. 2 in both human polls, is not even close to being the second-best team in the computers right now. The Longhorns have beaten Ohio State and Oklahoma but are ranked eighth by both the Sagarin and Colley ratings, which were the only ones to have published at the time of this writing. The schedule strength will improve when Texas plays Colorado and Texas Tech the next two weeks, but it still won't be as tough as what the other undefeated teams have in front of them the rest of the way. The Big 12 is down, the Buckeyes are out of the Top 10 and it all adds up to possible trouble for the Longhorns.
Translation: Among all the undefeated teams at the end of the regular season, Texas may rank last in the computer element of the BCS formula, which could open the door to the Longhorns getting jumped in the standings by the No. 3 team in the polls. Penn State is currently the highest-rated team in the computers, followed by Florida State, Alabama, Georgia, USC and Virginia Tech.
All Texas can really do is keep winning convincingly and hope those other teams lose. A loss by USC would be most beneficial, although just having the Trojans continue to look vulnerable could pay dividends, as well. If the Longhorns' point totals in the polls continue to be closer to first than they are to third, that might be enough to hold off any challengers.
Is this only the second week of October? It already has the feel of November.
This could be another really fun finish.
<!---------------------INLINE TABLE (BEGIN)---------------------><TABLE id=inlinetable cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width=420 border=0><TBODY><TR><TH style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #000000"><CENTER>Mock BCS standings</CENTER></TH><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD width=416>1. USC Trojans (5-0) </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD width=416>2. Virginia Tech Hokies (6-0) </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD width=416>3. Florida State Seminoles (5-0) </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD width=416>4. Texas Longhorns (5-0) </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD width=416>5. Georgia Bulldogs (5-0) </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD width=416>6. Alabama Crimson Tide (5-0) </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD width=416>7. Penn State Nittany Lions (6-0) </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD width=416>8. Miami Hurricanes (4-1) </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD width=416>9. LSU Tigers (3-1) </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD width=416>10. Florida Gators (5-1) </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD width=416>11. UCLA Bruins (5-0) </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD width=416>12. Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-0) </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD width=416>* Through games of Oct. 8 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!---------------------INLINE TABLE (END)--------------------->The first official BCS Standings of the season will be released on Monday, Oct. 17.
