Vegas May 1st- May 28th (All bets inside)
- Thread starter OSU COWBOYS
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royalfan
EOG Dedicated
High Times
EOG Master
Re: Vegas May 1st- May 28th (All bets inside)
So the Idiots bet the game over and like I always do I don't fucking care. You had the right play and this was just another example of the Idiots making the lines/odds better as they bet a good under OVER.
I myself love to bet against the moves and have become very successful doing just that so when you say "I want to be with the market" it shows how little you guys really know. Why?
Because you never know who bet the WRONG side and should never let the line move CHANGE your initial play because it was solid as soon as you decided it was the play.
I hope you kept you under bet and didn't budge!
Good luck
12io4j2w90
So the Idiots bet the game over and like I always do I don't fucking care. You had the right play and this was just another example of the Idiots making the lines/odds better as they bet a good under OVER.
I myself love to bet against the moves and have become very successful doing just that so when you say "I want to be with the market" it shows how little you guys really know. Why?
Because you never know who bet the WRONG side and should never let the line move CHANGE your initial play because it was solid as soon as you decided it was the play.
I hope you kept you under bet and didn't budge!
Good luck
12io4j2w90
IrishTim
EOG Dedicated
Re: Vegas May 1st- May 28th (All bets inside)
HT, you know one game doesn't mean anything. I am not a strict market handicapper like OSU, I am working with my MLB model (for better or worse) right now. Whenever it says go, I bet - market be damned, though I obviously prefer for the market to agree.
This under was one of my stronger total plays of the season. For whatever reason, the number for tomorrow's Boston/LAA game is significantly higher than what my projections once again. There are still some under 10.5 at -115s out there :cheers
HT, you know one game doesn't mean anything. I am not a strict market handicapper like OSU, I am working with my MLB model (for better or worse) right now. Whenever it says go, I bet - market be damned, though I obviously prefer for the market to agree.
This under was one of my stronger total plays of the season. For whatever reason, the number for tomorrow's Boston/LAA game is significantly higher than what my projections once again. There are still some under 10.5 at -115s out there :cheers
cheapseats
EOG Master
Re: Vegas May 1st- May 28th (All bets inside)
best post from you in a long time.....if it were pure stats of any mix or match, any pair or deviation or any other pure statistical measure, the books from las vegas to the end of the world would be out of business, especially in this age of information and so forth..........
High Times
EOG Master
Re: Vegas May 1st- May 28th (All bets inside)
Dice K is very average right now, but in situations like this I would bet the game under for a little because I believe in trends in baseball as they seem to be able to last 7 to 10 games when they happen.
The Nationals went 10 straight scoring 4 runs or more 2 weeks ago and was a great OVER play during that time.
Baseball is great for betting streaks.
And this is not just 1 game. I thrive on betting against the moves. Now how is that possible if the moves are so strong like you say?
Not arguing either I'm just stating what I have done for a long time.
As a bookmaker I never avoid the early plays as I'm not concerned 1 bit about the moves because the book has a huge advantage in taking bets and not avoiding them. Most bookmakers have no clue as to why they aew good bets for the book.
Whatever you guys are looking at isn't reality. It's more like 50/50 jusrt like the whole gambling thing. It's hard to over come the juice no matter what odds/lines you are betting into unless
You are a middler or scalper. For those guys the moves are everything! EVERYTHING
good day and good luck tomarrow
Dice K is very average right now, but in situations like this I would bet the game under for a little because I believe in trends in baseball as they seem to be able to last 7 to 10 games when they happen.
The Nationals went 10 straight scoring 4 runs or more 2 weeks ago and was a great OVER play during that time.
Baseball is great for betting streaks.
And this is not just 1 game. I thrive on betting against the moves. Now how is that possible if the moves are so strong like you say?
Not arguing either I'm just stating what I have done for a long time.
As a bookmaker I never avoid the early plays as I'm not concerned 1 bit about the moves because the book has a huge advantage in taking bets and not avoiding them. Most bookmakers have no clue as to why they aew good bets for the book.
Whatever you guys are looking at isn't reality. It's more like 50/50 jusrt like the whole gambling thing. It's hard to over come the juice no matter what odds/lines you are betting into unless
You are a middler or scalper. For those guys the moves are everything! EVERYTHING
good day and good luck tomarrow
High Times
EOG Master
Re: Vegas May 1st- May 28th (All bets inside)
Try telling these guys this. They have this grand illusion that beating the closing lines makes you a winner instantly.
Never did and never will.
Try telling these guys this. They have this grand illusion that beating the closing lines makes you a winner instantly.
Never did and never will.
High Times
EOG Master
Re: Vegas May 1st- May 28th (All bets inside)
The Giant game opened -135 and the Suns game opened -3 1/2
You bet against the market and won both bets. Damn are you nuts?
:LMAO
The Giant game opened -135 and the Suns game opened -3 1/2
You bet against the market and won both bets. Damn are you nuts?
:LMAO
cheapseats
EOG Master
IrishTim
EOG Dedicated
Re: Vegas May 1st- May 28th (All bets inside)
I've seen this argument a few times and it doesn't make sense to me. Not only have I seen guys who couldn't name a single player on either team (i.e. "Kobe O'Bryant") who make well over 100k a year from straight statistical modeling. You can definitely create better numbers than the Vegas openers with pure statistics. It's just that there are very very very few people who have the math background (the real disqualifier for most people), patience, and discipline to develop +EV stat models.
You could give 1,000 guys a full database with the line data, box score stats, and individual player stats and only one or two gamblers at most would be able to make a +EV model out of it.
Secondly - with the way most sportsbooks operate, even if there are a handful of guys winning 57% of their bets betting the full limit, that's still not enough to outweigh the other 99% who are absolutely clueless. So I don't agree that Vegas would "go broke" if pure stat models could make money (which they can).
I've seen this argument a few times and it doesn't make sense to me. Not only have I seen guys who couldn't name a single player on either team (i.e. "Kobe O'Bryant") who make well over 100k a year from straight statistical modeling. You can definitely create better numbers than the Vegas openers with pure statistics. It's just that there are very very very few people who have the math background (the real disqualifier for most people), patience, and discipline to develop +EV stat models.
You could give 1,000 guys a full database with the line data, box score stats, and individual player stats and only one or two gamblers at most would be able to make a +EV model out of it.
Secondly - with the way most sportsbooks operate, even if there are a handful of guys winning 57% of their bets betting the full limit, that's still not enough to outweigh the other 99% who are absolutely clueless. So I don't agree that Vegas would "go broke" if pure stat models could make money (which they can).
cheapseats
EOG Master
Re: Vegas May 1st- May 28th (All bets inside)
In my 15+ years of these forums, I have yet to see anybody post what you are talking about. Of course, those with the math and understanding are not about to give away the holly grail, right. Look, there is always someone that is willing to sell their holly grail, and I have yet to see that. Tim, I know you are of the math and all, but you yourself do not post the +ev's that you say you have. I think in a prior post, you were just looking to have conversation and such. Let's see your math work.
In my 15+ years of these forums, I have yet to see anybody post what you are talking about. Of course, those with the math and understanding are not about to give away the holly grail, right. Look, there is always someone that is willing to sell their holly grail, and I have yet to see that. Tim, I know you are of the math and all, but you yourself do not post the +ev's that you say you have. I think in a prior post, you were just looking to have conversation and such. Let's see your math work.
IrishTim
EOG Dedicated
Re: Vegas May 1st- May 28th (All bets inside)
I've made my case for the markets so I'll leave it up to others to bring a new take to the discussion. Just one more point I want to make about cheapseats' (not calling you out necessarily, I've seen it said dozens of times on the forum) assertion that "if you could win with just math, the books would shut down". Basic hi-lo card counting is enough to win money long-term in blackjack; do all the Vegas casinos have to shut down? No, because most people are either unwilling or incapable of learning how to count cards.
Now there are other far more advanced blackjack techniques that can significantly increase your edge. There are extremely advanced card location (specifically the ace) strategies for blackjack that makes it impossible to lose long-term in cards. Why haven't the books gone broke because of this? Because the number of people in the country who have the mathematical background (probably needs to exceed an undergrad degree in math) and gambling knowledge to apply it is in the triple digits. Same can be said for sports betting.
I've made my case for the markets so I'll leave it up to others to bring a new take to the discussion. Just one more point I want to make about cheapseats' (not calling you out necessarily, I've seen it said dozens of times on the forum) assertion that "if you could win with just math, the books would shut down". Basic hi-lo card counting is enough to win money long-term in blackjack; do all the Vegas casinos have to shut down? No, because most people are either unwilling or incapable of learning how to count cards.
Now there are other far more advanced blackjack techniques that can significantly increase your edge. There are extremely advanced card location (specifically the ace) strategies for blackjack that makes it impossible to lose long-term in cards. Why haven't the books gone broke because of this? Because the number of people in the country who have the mathematical background (probably needs to exceed an undergrad degree in math) and gambling knowledge to apply it is in the triple digits. Same can be said for sports betting.
IrishTim
EOG Dedicated
Re: Vegas May 1st- May 28th (All bets inside)
Buffett Gambler at the Rx is one example of a +EV modeler who posts his plays. He had to stop posting one year because the touts were stealing his plays and write-ups. Another poster at SBR shared with me a technique (pure stats modeling) that hit over 60% in Arena before they shut down. The same methods hit around 55% in NCAAF. A different poster has a documented record of hitting close to 60% in WNBA last season with a pure stat model (he's not a pro, but does forecasting in other fields for a living).
Talk to RayCabino, 34%Capper ComptrBob, etc. All successful quantitative handicappers who choose not to post plays. When you're worried about betting 10k for your group at the right line, posting on an anonymous gambling forum doesn't rank very highly on your list of priorities.
Lastly - I don't believe I ever bragged about having a +EV model. Hell I highly doubt any of the stuff I'm doing right now will work long-term (though it's working short-term). This is my first year modeling and I would be highly suspicious if anyone said they figured it out in only a couple of months. One thing is for certain, with close to 10k plays since I converted from a "ESPN handicapper" to a quantitative handicapper, I went from making 8-10 deposits in my first year with 1 payout to making 0 new deposits in the second year with over 10 payouts. I don't plan on going back to the old method any time soon.
Buffett Gambler at the Rx is one example of a +EV modeler who posts his plays. He had to stop posting one year because the touts were stealing his plays and write-ups. Another poster at SBR shared with me a technique (pure stats modeling) that hit over 60% in Arena before they shut down. The same methods hit around 55% in NCAAF. A different poster has a documented record of hitting close to 60% in WNBA last season with a pure stat model (he's not a pro, but does forecasting in other fields for a living).
Talk to RayCabino, 34%Capper ComptrBob, etc. All successful quantitative handicappers who choose not to post plays. When you're worried about betting 10k for your group at the right line, posting on an anonymous gambling forum doesn't rank very highly on your list of priorities.
Lastly - I don't believe I ever bragged about having a +EV model. Hell I highly doubt any of the stuff I'm doing right now will work long-term (though it's working short-term). This is my first year modeling and I would be highly suspicious if anyone said they figured it out in only a couple of months. One thing is for certain, with close to 10k plays since I converted from a "ESPN handicapper" to a quantitative handicapper, I went from making 8-10 deposits in my first year with 1 payout to making 0 new deposits in the second year with over 10 payouts. I don't plan on going back to the old method any time soon.
cheapseats
EOG Master
Re: Vegas May 1st- May 28th (All bets inside)
I don't claim to have the knowledge, the time, nor the inclination to do what you say can be done, and, I have yet to see anybody put forth proof here. I do not buy cards (blackjack) as apple and apple to sports betting, maybe my stat classes failed me. Best of luck to you and your conversations here.
I don't claim to have the knowledge, the time, nor the inclination to do what you say can be done, and, I have yet to see anybody put forth proof here. I do not buy cards (blackjack) as apple and apple to sports betting, maybe my stat classes failed me. Best of luck to you and your conversations here.
IrishTim
EOG Dedicated
Re: Vegas May 1st- May 28th (All bets inside)
There are definitely differences between blackjack and sports betting - namely you can calculate with razor sharp precision what your edge is in blackjack whereas it's more of a projection or estimate in sports based on historical tendencies. However I still believe my point is valid: the info is out there to make money using stats - you just need to have the programming skills to scrape it and the statistical skills to apply it. And this is a combination only an extremely small minority of sports bettors have (note: not including myself in this minority).
There are definitely differences between blackjack and sports betting - namely you can calculate with razor sharp precision what your edge is in blackjack whereas it's more of a projection or estimate in sports based on historical tendencies. However I still believe my point is valid: the info is out there to make money using stats - you just need to have the programming skills to scrape it and the statistical skills to apply it. And this is a combination only an extremely small minority of sports bettors have (note: not including myself in this minority).
High Times
EOG Master
Re: Vegas May 1st- May 28th (All bets inside)
There are not people collecting huge amounts of money from sports books because they are winning at this great pace. That is just not happening.
The reality is that there isn't that much bet in the first place (it's baseball) and basketball and hockey are getting very little big action. Those other sports you can't even make a big bet on them
These claims of people winning big amounts because they are hitting these great %'s are just the rest of this stuff.
Make believe!
Very, very few bettors are winning week after week and hitting these sports books up for a lot of money.
Just a myth. It really is not happening
There are not people collecting huge amounts of money from sports books because they are winning at this great pace. That is just not happening.
The reality is that there isn't that much bet in the first place (it's baseball) and basketball and hockey are getting very little big action. Those other sports you can't even make a big bet on them
These claims of people winning big amounts because they are hitting these great %'s are just the rest of this stuff.
Make believe!
Very, very few bettors are winning week after week and hitting these sports books up for a lot of money.
Just a myth. It really is not happening
High Times
EOG Master
Re: Vegas May 1st- May 28th (All bets inside)
And the reason guys quit posting bets was because they couldn't win and nothing else. You don't go from posting bets and trying to be the hero to "I'm not posting any more because posters don't respect what I am trying to do or I don't have the time." That's non-sense.
Every poster here posted losers or they would still be posting them. That is pretty obvious. The only reason the shrink kept posting bets was because he had too as he needed the chance it gave him in case he actually went on a winning streak.
Way too many people/posters love to claim they are winning and have this great system, but most of it is bull.
Very, very few guys are betting big money day after day.
And the reason guys quit posting bets was because they couldn't win and nothing else. You don't go from posting bets and trying to be the hero to "I'm not posting any more because posters don't respect what I am trying to do or I don't have the time." That's non-sense.
Every poster here posted losers or they would still be posting them. That is pretty obvious. The only reason the shrink kept posting bets was because he had too as he needed the chance it gave him in case he actually went on a winning streak.
Way too many people/posters love to claim they are winning and have this great system, but most of it is bull.
Very, very few guys are betting big money day after day.
IrishTim
EOG Dedicated
Re: Vegas May 1st- May 28th (All bets inside)
HT - I will chime in with a play every now and then if I feel it is merited in the discussion, but it's enough of a hassle just entering all my plays in my record-keeping spreadsheet every day and tallying up the results (I'm consistently 2-3 days behind). Who wants to do this and then go and post them all on a forum? Then you have to deal with people accusing you of lying with lines, getting flamed for an 1-4 day, etc.
HT - I will chime in with a play every now and then if I feel it is merited in the discussion, but it's enough of a hassle just entering all my plays in my record-keeping spreadsheet every day and tallying up the results (I'm consistently 2-3 days behind). Who wants to do this and then go and post them all on a forum? Then you have to deal with people accusing you of lying with lines, getting flamed for an 1-4 day, etc.
JerseyShop101
EOG Dedicated
Re: Vegas May 1st- May 28th (All bets inside)
To avoid the bashing, just put the disclaimer in the 1st post, like some do across the street, lol. But seriously, I would like you to still post it. I believe you would post accurate records, even if you went on a terrible losing streak. The forums are supposed to be informative and enjoyable.
:cheers
To avoid the bashing, just put the disclaimer in the 1st post, like some do across the street, lol. But seriously, I would like you to still post it. I believe you would post accurate records, even if you went on a terrible losing streak. The forums are supposed to be informative and enjoyable.
:cheers
Ray Luca
EOG Master
munson15
I want winners...
Re: Vegas May 1st- May 28th (All bets inside)
Not trying to straddle the fence, what I'm saying is that I think your statistical models CAN produce consistent winners, but once the computer 'has its mind made up' I don't believe the line movement afterwards dictates whether you are going to do well. Hope that made sense. :+clueless
Completely valid points, Tim. I can't say that I blame you for keeping things close to the vest, anyway, since you are working off a model and not, strictly speaking, handicapping the games. I believe you are on the right track, although I can see a bit of the argument on the other side.
Not trying to straddle the fence, what I'm saying is that I think your statistical models CAN produce consistent winners, but once the computer 'has its mind made up' I don't believe the line movement afterwards dictates whether you are going to do well. Hope that made sense. :+clueless
WINBET
EOG Dedicated
Re: Vegas May 1st- May 28th (All bets inside)
Where's the Cowboy:+clueless Any suicide reports in Vegas
op: maybe there's an epidemic of EOG sharps topping themselves :LMAOlets hope that terrorist Jeff is close to the edge. :+excited-
This place is full of wankers 91023i2ndw;l :cheers
Where's the Cowboy:+clueless Any suicide reports in Vegas
op: maybe there's an epidemic of EOG sharps topping themselves :LMAOlets hope that terrorist Jeff is close to the edge. :+excited-This place is full of wankers 91023i2ndw;l :cheers
WildBill
2
Re: Vegas May 1st- May 28th (All bets inside)
If people were "smart" at the betting models then the books numbers would adjust and the pure math angle would not work. Best handicappers realize math is just a piece of the puzzle. If you stuck to math only you might miss something like NBA teams and their need for rest. Or the fact that a team can play way over their heads for a short period of time and then sharply regress the other way. Math is merely a tool to help point one towards the side with more value if the game was played in a vacuum, but bettors realize games have tons of human factors to go with them which can sometimes overwhelm even what the math suggests.
Here is my point on the efficiency of the markets. Openers contain some clear mistakes, but they aren't that common. Once you take the mistakes out you are often left with moves that are merely opinions. Informed opinions, but not necessarily something you should get too excited about. Lets say there are 100 betting syndicates or lone bettors out there strong enough to move the number. It might only take one or two to get a pretty significant move in the market. You might think that one or two sharp bettors opinion matters, but what about the 98 others who don't have a strong opinion on the game? How about the fact that the one or two make a few bets that send off the "steam" alarms all over the place getting lots of books to move on air and also drawing in the followers who see the same thing and keep backing the bet. It all just makes me pause and think there isn't really that much which goes into openers versus closing lines argument. Yes there will be sharper results around closing lines, but I'd say a large portion of it just comes from bad openers. That is why I have long believed once you get to around 2pm ET with a daily sport you have a fairly decent line to work with out of the books which take on the sharpest action. Whatever moves come after can come in all flavors and you can't necessarily say they all are worth following or even noting.
If people were "smart" at the betting models then the books numbers would adjust and the pure math angle would not work. Best handicappers realize math is just a piece of the puzzle. If you stuck to math only you might miss something like NBA teams and their need for rest. Or the fact that a team can play way over their heads for a short period of time and then sharply regress the other way. Math is merely a tool to help point one towards the side with more value if the game was played in a vacuum, but bettors realize games have tons of human factors to go with them which can sometimes overwhelm even what the math suggests.
Here is my point on the efficiency of the markets. Openers contain some clear mistakes, but they aren't that common. Once you take the mistakes out you are often left with moves that are merely opinions. Informed opinions, but not necessarily something you should get too excited about. Lets say there are 100 betting syndicates or lone bettors out there strong enough to move the number. It might only take one or two to get a pretty significant move in the market. You might think that one or two sharp bettors opinion matters, but what about the 98 others who don't have a strong opinion on the game? How about the fact that the one or two make a few bets that send off the "steam" alarms all over the place getting lots of books to move on air and also drawing in the followers who see the same thing and keep backing the bet. It all just makes me pause and think there isn't really that much which goes into openers versus closing lines argument. Yes there will be sharper results around closing lines, but I'd say a large portion of it just comes from bad openers. That is why I have long believed once you get to around 2pm ET with a daily sport you have a fairly decent line to work with out of the books which take on the sharpest action. Whatever moves come after can come in all flavors and you can't necessarily say they all are worth following or even noting.
IrishTim
EOG Dedicated
Re: Vegas May 1st- May 28th (All bets inside)
Definitely makes sense, Munson. The model gives you a number to work off of, but you obviously have to decide whether or not to bet it based on the information that is out there. If I (my blackbox) likes an under 8.5 but the wind is blowing 30 MPH out to left (or is forecasted to be like that), I'm not going to bet it. Same type of thing for a handful of umpires. As I believe I've said previously, I bet the unpainted openers, so market handicapping doesn't really play much of a factor in how I wager.
I'm addressing a point Bill made here - I tend to agree that some of the small moves throughout the day may just be opinions of different guys betting the limit, but I do believe that it moves in the correct direction from the OL to CL more often than not. This is the point that the data confirms. If the Yankees open -150 and close at -185, it is probably the right side.
If one of the big books like Cris, Olympic, Pinny puts up an opening # and it gets hit by a bunch of sharps for the limit (albeit opening limit) at say a rate of 5 to 1, you have to believe that is a market correction. Same thing when the lineups are released. If the lineups come out and you see a line move 15 cents, I believe that is the right move way more often than not.
But just because Pinnacle has a no-vig line of +/- 175 five hours before the first pitch, and I can get -173 at another shop, that's not an auto bet for me. For OSU and others, it probably would be.
I'm a statistical handicapper first, but I would prefer that the market would agree with me 60-70% of the time. I think that is the mark of a valid model.
WildBill, really good points in that second paragraph that I don't really dispute. Those two things you mention (NBA teams needing rest and teams on a hot streak) are both quantifiable. In fact, Munson and I had a good discussion on NBA players' rest, back to backs, etc. earlier this winter with regard to the NBA. You just need to have the right tools, and very few of us do.
P.S. Munson, I'll get you that MLB totals data later. I just got done with exams...time to have a little fun :+excited-
Definitely makes sense, Munson. The model gives you a number to work off of, but you obviously have to decide whether or not to bet it based on the information that is out there. If I (my blackbox) likes an under 8.5 but the wind is blowing 30 MPH out to left (or is forecasted to be like that), I'm not going to bet it. Same type of thing for a handful of umpires. As I believe I've said previously, I bet the unpainted openers, so market handicapping doesn't really play much of a factor in how I wager.
I'm addressing a point Bill made here - I tend to agree that some of the small moves throughout the day may just be opinions of different guys betting the limit, but I do believe that it moves in the correct direction from the OL to CL more often than not. This is the point that the data confirms. If the Yankees open -150 and close at -185, it is probably the right side.
If one of the big books like Cris, Olympic, Pinny puts up an opening # and it gets hit by a bunch of sharps for the limit (albeit opening limit) at say a rate of 5 to 1, you have to believe that is a market correction. Same thing when the lineups are released. If the lineups come out and you see a line move 15 cents, I believe that is the right move way more often than not.
But just because Pinnacle has a no-vig line of +/- 175 five hours before the first pitch, and I can get -173 at another shop, that's not an auto bet for me. For OSU and others, it probably would be.
I'm a statistical handicapper first, but I would prefer that the market would agree with me 60-70% of the time. I think that is the mark of a valid model.
WildBill, really good points in that second paragraph that I don't really dispute. Those two things you mention (NBA teams needing rest and teams on a hot streak) are both quantifiable. In fact, Munson and I had a good discussion on NBA players' rest, back to backs, etc. earlier this winter with regard to the NBA. You just need to have the right tools, and very few of us do.
P.S. Munson, I'll get you that MLB totals data later. I just got done with exams...time to have a little fun :+excited-
WildBill
2
Re: Vegas May 1st- May 28th (All bets inside)
It is not beating the closer that gets them to act, its beating any sort of move consistently. If you make bets and then the market two hours later moves they probably won't care much. If each time you bet the marketplace is getting hit by steam on the game then you are going to get cut in most places.
It is not beating the closer that gets them to act, its beating any sort of move consistently. If you make bets and then the market two hours later moves they probably won't care much. If each time you bet the marketplace is getting hit by steam on the game then you are going to get cut in most places.
WildBill
2
Re: Vegas May 1st- May 28th (All bets inside)
I think we are on the same page. Sure for a game moving from -150 to -185 you probably have a good EV if you get it at -150, but I doubt its a good bet at -185. When I see that sort of move I am almost reflexively interested in the dog once it crosses a 20 cent move. So often times I put in an offer at Matchbook that is a few cents out of the money and figure if its still getting hit to the point I get taken out, then I like my chances because that almost certainly is just followers betting and not the sharps. I don't know of many sharps who still hit something once its moved more than a dime unless it was a borderline mistake opener.
A lot of what I am doing these days is sort of what you mention when a no-vig line at Pinny suggest value at Matchbook. Matchbook has made this a very good volume line of betting. As long as one accepts the lower ROI nature of this and keeps a large bankroll as a result I think it works better than finding the few and far between true scalps out there.
I think we are on the same page. Sure for a game moving from -150 to -185 you probably have a good EV if you get it at -150, but I doubt its a good bet at -185. When I see that sort of move I am almost reflexively interested in the dog once it crosses a 20 cent move. So often times I put in an offer at Matchbook that is a few cents out of the money and figure if its still getting hit to the point I get taken out, then I like my chances because that almost certainly is just followers betting and not the sharps. I don't know of many sharps who still hit something once its moved more than a dime unless it was a borderline mistake opener.
A lot of what I am doing these days is sort of what you mention when a no-vig line at Pinny suggest value at Matchbook. Matchbook has made this a very good volume line of betting. As long as one accepts the lower ROI nature of this and keeps a large bankroll as a result I think it works better than finding the few and far between true scalps out there.
IrishTim
EOG Dedicated
Re: Vegas May 1st- May 28th (All bets inside)
I agree with pretty much everything you said there, Bill.
That makes two of us :cheers
I agree with pretty much everything you said there, Bill.
That makes two of us :cheers
munson15
I want winners...
Re: Vegas May 1st- May 28th (All bets inside)
Bill, employing the same logic you laid out, that is a project I attempted last year in bases with no luck good or bad. Did I not stick to it long enough? Ironically, I used a 20-cent move to trigger my plays, and did this for about 2 months to no effect.
Bill, employing the same logic you laid out, that is a project I attempted last year in bases with no luck good or bad. Did I not stick to it long enough? Ironically, I used a 20-cent move to trigger my plays, and did this for about 2 months to no effect.
Re: Vegas May 1st- May 28th (All bets inside)
when the family went to las vegas last year we stayed at excalibur,and in the sportsbook it had wrightings on a ticker on the left side of the big screen tv that it was forbiden to use a computer.i cant live without my computer,and i found out that they charged for internet usage.when i gamble on sports i feel like it helps by listening to sports x radio on the lv noise internet radio,and morency sports.iam hoping to stay at the mgm this year.two things i hated about the excalibur was the fact it wasnt handicap friendly.my dad suffers from congestive heart failure,poor circulation of his legs,and shortness of breath.i had to push my dad around and i had wrecked my back in 2006,and tore my acl in 2008.this will be the last time my family will ever stay there again,but besides that we had a damn fun time.i hope we can go back in september this year.i want a condo so we can go anytime we want to.:cheers
Re: Vegas May 1st- May 28th (All bets inside)
i hope you and your wife win a boat full of money,and i hpoe you and your wife have fun and also have a:cheers:cheers safe trip.GREAT idea!
KingRevolver
Born Rambler
Re: Vegas May 1st- May 28th (All bets inside)
Sorry to hear about your pops.
A condo would be nice in Vegas. :cheers
Sorry to hear about your pops.
A condo would be nice in Vegas. :cheers
Re: Vegas May 1st- May 28th (All bets inside)
LOL...I think we were hoping for the same thing.:cheers
LOL...I think we were hoping for the same thing.:cheers
munson15
I want winners...
Re: Vegas May 1st- May 28th (All bets inside)
OSU rarely disappoints, and it's only 8:30 am in Vegas, so there is still hope!:thumbsup
