Week 6 NFL, ZzyxzxRoad goes back to Reno

[ZzyzxRoad]

Made the drive from Vegas to Reno again yesterday. Actually broke it in half and spent the night in Tonopah here: https://www.tonopahnevada.com/clown-motel/
Not even sure why, I just driven by that place a million times and wanted to say that I stayed there. Then of course I couldn't sleep after the Vikings game ended, so I wound up hooking up my Raspberry Pi to the tv and played video games for a few hours. I wound up playing an old 8 bit Nes game called Deja Vu; vaguely remember playing it at a friend's house in 1990. Finally slept for two hours, and started driving, breakfast in the car at a McDonald's in Hawthorne, and I was in Reno three hours later. Stopped at Western Village and bet the under in the Monday night game, then wandered downtown and picked up freeplay at a few places.
Checked in at a hotel and waiting for whatever comes next. A friend is coming from Vegas on a gambling trip, and can't wait to see him.

 

[X-Files]

Monday morning NFL "Pinnacle leans" were:

NYG/Redskins under 44.5 -110

LA Rams -165 ML (vs SF 69ers ; )

BTW, 2-1 on "Pinnacle leans" (NCAAF/NFL) in last week's thread, including 1-0 NFL.

 

[ZzyzxRoad]

Looks like a very tight board for the NFL, leaning to Bears and Jaguars for sides, probably will bet Jags at current price and wait for a three or better on the Bears.
My totals guy loves two bets, under in the Vikings-Falcons, and under in the Cowboys-Cardinals. I always bet his picks but I don't know if I can make myself bet another Cowboys under this year. Their defense has been absolutely horrible, and their offense isn't. I don't think Arizona is designed to play shootouts, but it's just a hard game to figure. Will wait to see what the market does, but I have a hunch the over gets bet here.
That's pretty much it for me. I just don't have a strong feel on anything else, but I'd love to know what others think, especially Heim and Kane. Kane, please pm if you'd prefer. Would love to know what you're on this week.

 

[jimmythegreek]

As crazy as this sounds, it's going to be interesting to see if this explosive Dallas offense may be susceptible to a hangover with Dalton in there for 60 minutes. I see the total is around 55, but may be worth a shot for the under.

On the flip side, taking a look at Cleveland/Pittsburgh over 51.

 

[TheGuesser]

I bet GB on the advance line last week at +2.5 @ TB. Might come back a little now on TB if GB goes to -3.
Like Dallas alot at +2.5. It's a severe overreaction to Dak's injury. They are making Dak worth about 6 Points more than Dalton based on the advance line of Dallas -3-125. That's about 3 too many, IMO. Dak is great, but Dalton is about as good as it gets as a backup.

 

[kane]

Benny, I'll send you a PM later in the week

 

[Valuist]

Kane, did the Dolphins stay on the West Coast or head back to Miami after the game vs the Niners?

 

[Valuist]

Kane, did the Dolphins stay on the West Coast or head back to Miami after the game vs the Niners?

Never mind. They must have one of the altered schedules. I had them at Denver but instead they get to face the Jets. Nobody will turn down a chance to face the Jets.

 

[Valuist]

If they were horses, Tennessee probably a Grade 3 runner while the Bills coming off runaway wins vs NY bred allowance foes. No doubt who was the better horse.

 

[John Kelly]

If they were horses, Tennessee probably a Grade 3 runner while the Bills coming off runaway wins vs NY bred allowance foes. No doubt who was the better horse.

Love the analogy.

We can bet sports at 4.54% or horses at four times that number.

No wonder it's hard to find a winning horseplayer.

 

[WildBill]

Love the analogy.

We can bet sports at 4.54% or horses at four times that number.

No wonder it's hard to find a winning horseplayer.

Pure stupidity rules when it comes to gambling JK. Go to Asian casinos where the slots are mostly ignored and the baccarat games with just over 1% house edge are overcrowded with gamblers. Not like Asian gamblers grew up playing Bac, they just go after bargains.

 

[Foresthill]

Go to Asian casinos where the slots are mostly ignored and the baccarat games with just over 1% house edge are overcrowded with gamblers. Not like Asian gamblers grew up playing Bac, they just go after bargains.

Minus EV is Minus EV. The only difference is a person loses their money slower, so baccarat is no bargain.

 

[kane]

Benny, check your PM's

 

[pro analyser]

Like Az over Dallas. Kyler Murray won 3 state titles all at AT and T stadium. He also went 2-0 in college at At and T stadium. Overall record 5-0 at At and T stadium. Also grew up 44 miles from At and T stadium https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.c...eturns-home-having-never-lost-at-att-stadium/

 

[kane]

Like Az over Dallas. Kyler Murray won 3 state titles all at AT and T stadium. He also went 2-0 in college at At and T stadium. Overall record 5-0 at At and T stadium. Also grew up 44 miles from At and T stadium https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.c...eturns-home-having-never-lost-at-att-stadium/

I don't want to sound like a dick, but the fact Murray is 5-0 in that stadium means absolutely nothing

 

[railbird]

I don't want to sound like a dick, but the fact Murray is 5-0 in that stadium means absolutely nothing

i lean dallas, but i disagree that it means nothing.

 

[railbird]

dallas gets a qb upgrade and a ats discount

 

[pro analyser]

dallas gets a qb upgrade and a ats discount

Dallas needs an ats discount,their 0-5 ats this year

 

[TheGuesser]

I don't want to sound like a dick, but the fact Murray is 5-0 in that stadium means absolutely nothing

 

[ZzyzxRoad]

R.I.P. Burgundy Toyota Higlander Smith
Born August 2000, Tokyo, Japan
Died October 17, 2020, Reno, NV.
"She gave me 318,000 miles of off-roading in places most men would fear to go. I'll always miss and love her"

 

[kane]

Damn Benny, first your dog now your car. 318,000 miles, at least you got your money's worth

 

[ZzyzxRoad]

Damn Benny, first your dog now your car. 318,000 miles, at least you got your money's worth

Dont worry about me, I have a solution!
I just overhead several people in this sportsbook talking. Apparently, Ravens -10 is the biggest lock of the week, and there's "literally no fucking chance it will lose!!"
I usually don't pay attention to people who wear their baseball caps backwards, but this guy swears it's a lock. 11,000 on the Ravens, and after I win, that's the down payment on the next beast.

 

[kane]

Dont worry about me, I have a solution!
I just overhead several people in this sportsbook talking. Apparently, Ravens -10 is the biggest lock of the week, and there's "literally no fucking chance it will lose!!"
I usually don't pay attention to people who wear their baseball caps backwards, but this guy swears it's a lock. 11,000 on the Ravens, and after I win, that's the down payment on the next beast.

LOL

 

[kane]

Hey Benny, the game closed 2, we're getting 3.5, Pros vs Joes

 

[ZzyzxRoad]

Hey Benny, the game closed 2, we're getting 3.5, Pros vs Joes

What do you think of Chiefs-Bills tomorrow? This has to be the biggest regular season game in Buffalo since Marv Levy was the coach, but the line just keeps going up. I'm absolutely making a sizable bet at the best possible line, but I don't want to bet too little.

 

[kane]

What do you think of Chiefs-Bills tomorrow? This has to be the biggest regular season game in Buffalo since Marv Levy was the coach, but the line just keeps going up. I'm absolutely making a sizable bet at the best possible line, but I don't want to bet too little.

No opinion on Chiefs/Bills. Just Dallas for me tomorrow

 

[kane]

Hey Benny, you see Dallas is now -1, I told you the wrong team was favored

 

[ZzyzxRoad]

Hey Benny, you see Dallas is now -1, I told you the wrong team was favored

I got em as the last leg in all my parlay cards, so if Dallas comes through, I'll be happy.

 

[kane]

Follow me Benny, follow me and I'll lead you to the promised land

 

[Patkeats]

Is the a bump?