Westgate SuperContest, possibly entering

#1
Greetings,

I'm considering entering this contest for the first time. It has been something I've always wanted to do. For those who have entered and played before, do you have any advice? How was your experience. How much time were you putting in to coming up with your five selections.

Maybe there's something that I'm not even considering in making my decision to move forward or not?

Thanks so much!
 
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#2
Skip the Thursday game, I came in 3rd in 2000, Friday injury report is important.

SQUAREPANTS put plays in the last 30 minutes, probably for line moves.
 
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#4
Get lucky, Keith.

It's only an 85-game sample.
Thanks JK.....I've done very well in other contests like this, local pools, etc., but I'm not up against sharp players in those contests, like I would in the Supercontest. I want to take it to the next level, which I why I want to enter. It's been a dream of mine for many years now to do this.
 
#6
Thanks JK.....I've done very well in other contests like this, local pools, etc., but I'm not up against sharp players in those contests, like I would in the Supercontest. I want to take it to the next level, which I why I want to enter. It's been a dream of mine for many years now to do this.
not sharp, the win rate was below 50pct last yr, golden nugget contest has higher sharp %
 
#7
Actually last year's Westgate had the highest overall win% since I've kept track (2002-2018), W/L/T: 131632-122390-6818, 51.82%. Only 3 years have had an overall record < 50% in the last 17 years. With the 8% rake, the contest is -EV for probably 85% to 90% of the entrants. By far, luck is the primary factor in determining the Top places.
 
#8
For those who have entered and played before, do you have any advice?
Do your own homework and tune everything/everyone else out.

I’m not in the “listen to everyone, follow no one” camp. I just cut it down to “listen to no one.” This takes hard work; but it’s not rocket science, and I know how to find the actual information (not an in truth opinion being sold by a tout as “information”) that I work with.

And don’t spend a lot of time on social media. It’s a major time and focus leak. (Ah, if I only followed my own advice, lol . . . .)


How was your experience.
So far, so good. :cool:


How much time were you putting in to coming up with your five selections.
When I’m not working a day job, basically every reasonably available working hour during the week and – during the offseason – extensive offseason tracking of personnel moves and other general research that I’ve held to look at until the offseason. (I try to avoid making picks in-season based on unvetted research ideas that I have or see in-season.)

When I’m instead dragging around a day job ball and chain, that all gets stripped down to what I can do with the time available after work and working out to maintain my health, both in-season and during the offseason.

To put all that in perspective, however, I basically just do the NFL anyway, even vis-a-vis live betting. So it’s not like I typically would be looking at, e.g., college football from a betting perspective in season. I focus on the one thing, as much as I can in my situation at the time, for the entire year.


Maybe there's something that I'm not even considering in making my decision to move forward or not?
To me at least, it seems easier to beat a couple of hundred or so mostly sharps than it is to beat 3000 plus entries, including statistical outliers with people with, e.g., a mindless jersey-color “system” that just happened to hit 65% that year. [Semi-tongue-in-cheek.]

That’s why I plonked down the 5K also for the SuperContest Gold this past year.

There are a fair number of sharps also over in the SuperContest Classic (regarding Rail’s other point comparing the SuperContest to the Golden Nugget contest), but there’s of course also that deluge of over 3000 total entries that drags the – overall – win percentage down in that contest.

Either way, I wouldn’t worry specifically about going against sharps. My rookie year in 2004, I beat 400 out of 405 entries, with there likely being a few sharps in that 400. And no one had ever heard of Squarepants (the SuperContest alias, not the toon) before. Just do your own homework and if you have any aptitude at this, you’ll have as decent a chance as anyone else in a given year’s 85-game sample, sharps included.


It's only an 85-game sample.

To reinforce John's point, Keith . . . one pass glancing off a WR’s fingertips, or not; one bad call; one bonehead time management decision by a head coach; etc., etc., etc., going your way or not even only just once every other week during the season can make the difference in 8 to 9 spread decisions over the course of a season. 8.5 picks is 10% of the 85 plays in the contest, a difference between a nice payout at 65% or no return at 55%.

That all may even out over time for a bettor. But 85 plays is like an 800 meter race run at pretty close to a full on sprint at an elite level, not a 10K (although it instead will feel like a marathon for you personally over 17 weeks). It may not even out for you on only 85 plays within one NFL season.

So luck – or the random distribution of expected results or whatever the math guys like ComptrBob call it – definitely is involved.


skip the Thursday game, I came in 3rd in 2000, Friday inj report is important. squarepants put plays in the last 30 mins, probably for line moves
I’m with Rail on skipping ThNF for contest plays.

But there are others that are adamant basically that (a) in their mind it’s foolish to skip ThNF when they see big “value” in that particular game; and (b) the information that comes in after ThNF, like the Friday night injury report, isn’t significant to their appraisal of "value" on their 5 picks as a whole.

Some of those guys have done quite well in the contests, IIRC.

For me, particularly when I’m working, I’m not close to being finished with my overall process by ThNF; and, especially when I’m working, cutting my NFL workload by the one game helps me in getting more or less through my process on the rest of the board.

And I like to have as much information as I can get – including, e.g., both injury information and market information – before pulling the trigger.

So, Rail is right, I’m usually there in that last hour, particularly when I’m also working, as Friday evening and Saturday morning I’m racing to get through my process even without regard to watching for any late line moves or injury information.

My internal and at times public research going back through 2011 tells at least me that just mechanically playing line moves won’t win the SuperContest. You’d almost definitely make money at the windows each year if you could make five NFL bets with Wednesday afternoon’s lines on Saturday morning. But to hit the uber high results needed these days for a contest win with the large fields (and also taking into account that the lines used to be posted on Tuesday rather than Wednesday) . . . .

But if folks feel differently, I certainly hope they enter the contests and put their money in the prize pool for me to take a shot at, even if it is a long shot for me going in each and every year.
 
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John Kelly

Born Gambler
Staff member
#9
For the uninitiated, EOG contributor SQUAREPANTS captured last season's SuperContest Gold contest with a record of 55-27-3.

SQUAREPANTS used the clever alias THERE CAN BE ONLY 1 in the winner-take-all contest which featured a $5,000 buy-in.

Turns out, he was the one and his first-place prize was $640,000.

What separates SQUAREPANTS from the competiton?

As he told journalist Dave Tuley, he's a "competitive son of a bitch."
 
#11
For the uninitiated, EOG contributor SQUAREPANTS captured last season's SuperContest Gold contest with a record of 55-27-3.

SQUAREPANTS used the clever alias THERE CAN BE ONLY 1 in the winner-take-all contest which featured a $5,000 buy-in.

Turns out, he was the one and his first-place prize was $640,000.

What separates SQUAREPANTS from the competiton?

As he told journalist Dave Tuley, he's a "competitive son of a bitch."
Being a Las Vegas resident is a huge advantage in the contest.
 
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#13
Thank you guys, was nice to get that bankroll boost after all the years slogging away at it.

Yep, Rail, I do like knowing that -- should I ever attain any notoriety where other players would want to know my picks before the selection deadline -- my cards will definitely remain close to my vest at least until I myself put my picks in each week, preserving my competitive advantage in that respect. And not using a proxy keeps the costs down.

Out of towners can and do win, though, of course, including this year in the Classic. Recall seeing that at least one proxy will put picks in as late as 10:30 am, albeit for a premium price. Believe that most proxy picks go in on Friday night, and if they use the mobile app this year the picks will have to go in by I believe 11PM (for anyone using the app to put selections in, proxy or not).
 
#14
The proxy I'm going to use charges $300 for the year, with selections being due by 10 pm ET, or for $50 more (which I would do), your deadline becomes 10am ET on Saturday.

When is the actual deadline for submission?
 
#15
11AM PT on Saturday morning.

The rules for both contests are at the .pdf link on this page:

https://www.westgateresorts.com/hot...-las-vegas-resort-casino/casino/supercontest/

Helpful to be conversant with the rules, including those re: date changes that may result in a game being no action (equivalent to a loss on the pick for the player). Sundry things can implicate the no action rule during a season, such as hurricanes.

(That's me in the pic in the Knights jersey with the lovely Vegas showgirls, Brooke and Sisha.)
 
#17
Absolutely don't use a proxy who doesn't have a Saturday AM deadline.

10am deadline is very solid. You really don't want to cut it too close anyway.

I'd tell him you want the Saturday deadline for the $300 and if he refuses tell him you're going to look elsewhere.
 
#18
. . . . You really don't want to cut it too close anyway. . . . .
Got that right, one of my biggest in-season paranoias is, e.g., getting in a fender-bender or stopped by the 25 mph speed trap cop on Joe W. Brown in the shadow of the Westgate with the buzzer about to sound for the selection deadline.

Still call it the Frogger Run (Seinfeld), from back when I came over from work downtown on my lunch hour for the back then 1PM Friday selection deadline.
 
#19
Yep. It just isnt worth it...especially with an NFL only contest.

I went to the wire last year the final week with the WH college contest (which I split the top spot 3 ways).

The sweat I had when all 3 machines went down and the subsequent line with 2$ 10-team parlay bettors was enough to get this steel-balled gambler to reassess the need to push time limits to the edge.
 

winkyduck

TYVM Morgan William!!!
#20
Never done it but some tips I can pass along

***Realize the $1500 you invest is money you will almost certainly never see again. Plus the proxy fee - if you use one

***Don't suffer from "Paralysis by Analysis." At some point in time you can't do any more homework. Shut it down and submit your picks and move on. Others may disagree but I would try and have one night where you be a "normal" person and spend it with family (wife/g-f?) or similar and take your mind off things

***Have fun. I know the money involved is "F U" Money but try and have fun and don't let it overtake your life like many have
 
#21
Actually last year's Westgate had the highest overall win% since I've kept track (2002-2018), W/L/T: 131632-122390-6818, 51.82%. Only 3 years have had an overall record < 50% in the last 17 years. With the 8% rake, the contest is -EV for probably 85% to 90% of the entrants. By far, luck is the primary factor in determining the Top places.

But the Ultimate Winner usually ends the season with anywhere from 55-58 Wins.
 
#22
But the Ultimate Winner usually ends the season with anywhere from 55-58 Wins.
Yes, actually the average # of points for the winner is 59.6 over the past 6 years (all with more than 1000 contestants, up to 3123 last year).

If you have a population of 3123 entrants that pick 50.8% correctly on average, by luck, slightly over 2 1/2 will have 58 or more Points . So a very good handicapper may be competing with 2+ entrants that got there through pure luck.
 
#23
I was in LV last week for my bowling tournament, USBC National tournament at South Point. While I was in town, I ended up submitting my entry at the Westgate, and met the proxy, Matty of http://footballcontest.com/ I had heard of them last year, and VSiN has been advertising the sh*t out of them as well. They have a Saturday morning deadline, so it looks like I'm all set. My username is the same as here, mrbowling300.
 
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