Imagine USC as a 28-point underdog
By DAVE TULEY
DRF
LAS VEGAS - USC is a great college team. No doubt about it.
The Trojans are the two-time defending champs - okay, they are the two-time defending Associated Press champs, since they didn't get to play in the BCS title game two years ago - and the MGM Mirage properties have them as overwhelming 1-2 favorites to win the Rose Bowl, this year's BCS title game, after being available at 7-5 before the season started.
USC has annihilated its first two opponents this year, 63-17 over Hawaii as 35-point favorites and 70-17 over Arkansas as 31-point favorites. This week, the Trojans are 21-point favorites over Oregon despite having to play a Pac-10 rival on the road.
The Trojans are being compared to a pro team, and I'm sure you've heard people say that they could beat the 49ers or the Cardinals.
But don't believe it.
Ken White, the head oddsmaker and current co-owner of Las Vegas Sports Consultants, said the Trojans don't have the overall talent or depth to compete with any pro team.
"The worst NFL teams have got to be 28-point favorites over the top college team, even USC," White said. "They could name their score. It's professionals against college kids, and that's such a big difference. Carson Palmer was a great college player, but he had to sit on the bench right away with the Bengals. It's a big step up to the pros. Last year, Ben Roethlisberger kind of broke the mold, but before him, rookie quarterbacks were 28 percent against the spread over a long sample of games.
"Matt Leinart, as good as he is, would basically be a rookie quarterback going against the pros, and Leinart isn't surrounded by all NFL-quality players."
Michael "Roxy" Roxborough, who founded LVSC and was the nation's top oddsmakers from 1982 to 1999, said these comparisons are nothing new.
"This comes up from time to time," Roxy said, "but pro teams by their very nature are a collection of college all-stars. The 49ers, or whoever you think is the worst team in the NFL, would wax any college team if they really had to win and were trying the whole game."
Both White and Roxborough referenced the old annual exhibition game in Chicago from 1934-1976 between the defending NFL champs and a team of college all-stars. In the first 14 games in the 1930's and 40's, the NFL went 7-5-2. But as pro teams became more, well, professional in their training, the NFL teams started to dominate, and by the time the series ended (with a rain-shortened 24-0 victory by the Steelers in 1976), the NFL teams were 31-9-2 with only one loss in the final 18 games.
And this was with all the best college players, not just one team.