What does Fezzik do after football season?

J

joeybagadonuts

Guest
#4
Re: What does Fezzik do after football season?

Looks for loans to pay off his gambling losses?

Fires his computer?

Tries to figure out if there are still sucker who will buy his plays next year for $2 a play?

:+clueless
 
#6
Re: What does Fezzik do after football season?

Thanks Kinger, but you can give my free weeks at Railbirds to someone else..........




:cheers
 
#12
Re: What does Fezzik do after football season?

You fellas might be right-- check out the rug on this chap. Holy hell!


LOL the 3 is worth 23-26 cents. I debunked that nonsense a decade ago. It is actually worth even less now than it was then.

Guys continues to show why he loses.

Not sure when the vid was shot or when the comments were made but at no time in the histroy of sports gambling has the 3 ever been worth that much. So it doesnt really matter anyway I guess.
 
#14
Re: What does Fezzik do after football season?

The same thing he does during football season.

He follows the moves and tells everyone without a clue he's moving them.

:pop:
 

IrishTim

EOG Dedicated
#17
Re: What does Fezzik do after football season?

LOL the 3 is worth 23-26 cents. I debunked that nonsense a decade ago. It is actually worth even less now than it was then.

Guys continues to show why he loses.

Not sure when the vid was shot or when the comments were made but at no time in the histroy of sports gambling has the 3 ever been worth that much. So it doesnt really matter anyway I guess.
Do you even know how to turn a push percentage into "cents"?
 
#18
Re: What does Fezzik do after football season?

Do you even know how to turn a push percentage into "cents"?

You really do think you are smarter than everybody :LMAO

You are not joking are you?

All this time I thought you were screwing around with everyone, but all along you do really think your smarter than people who have actually made money in this business........

:LMAO
 
J

joeybagadonuts

Guest
#20
Re: What does Fezzik do after football season?

Do you even know how to turn a push percentage into "cents"?
No is off the board.

This is the same guy that claimed if you went 15-25 over 40 plays you should quit bc there is no way you're a winning gambler.
 
#22
Re: What does Fezzik do after football season?

Do you even know how to turn a push percentage into "cents"?
Do you even know what the push rate is on the 3 since say 2000? I will answer that...no you dont because there is no way to determine it. I could show that it is less than 2% depending on what books you had access to, or when you bet. As it is I think the most generic results are less than 8% now.

The only results that matter are when there was a game posted and painted -3 and it ended up with the fav winning by 3. The number of games where that happen is actually way less than 2% and almost a non issue. Mostly because there arent many examples where every book for a solid week was at -3 without a move anywhere at all or no other book offered +3.5 or -2.5 in some circumstance.

what confuses people is they would have lost or won anyway without buying the half point so they just lump those results in across the board. Which is obviously incorrect.

Bottomline is if youre buying a game to -2.5 for say -130 that opened -2.5 -110 but you waited until late to play it, youre a sucker and more than likely a long term loser. If that teams win 14-0 buying the half point was irrelevant and doesnt hurt most people. But if the team loses SU then you will have lost more than the guy who bet -2.5 -110.
 
#23
Re: What does Fezzik do after football season?

I could also throw up results that show 3 or 4 teams have not ecver pushed on a 3 number either as a fav or a dog. since 2000,, despite them having maybe 40 or so games between them. So those 4 teams for all intents and purposes are at 0%. On the flip side I could also show a couple teams that have a lot of 'pushes' on the 3. Assuming you played the 3 and didnt bet when you didnt have to. A few teams are almost 15% push rate.

So it just shows it is all situational. From the line to even the team and the coaching mentality that all adds up to this fictitious price tag someone wants to put on this number. For example say the TB Bucs have 23 games lined -3 to their credit with ZERO pushes and they have another 19 games where theyre +3 thats 42 games without a single push. How do you determine how much to spend on a game where they are involved in a 3 point line? If they have 0 pushes in 42 games then what is a half point worth off the 3?
 
#27
Re: What does Fezzik do after football season?

Guess neither of you subscribe to Keep It Simple Stupid

KISS
thats exactly what I do, I dont worry about a 3 line whatsoever therefore I dont worry about the vig it has or how much it is 'worth' to buy off it. Probably the most over rated thing in all of sports betting, although starting pitching in baseball is a close.
 

Ray Luca

EOG Dedicated
#28
Re: What does Fezzik do after football season?

thats exactly what I do, I dont worry about a 3 line whatsoever therefore I dont worry about the vig it has or how much it is 'worth' to buy off it. Probably the most over rated thing in all of sports betting, although starting pitching in baseball is a close.
agreed :cheers
 
#29
Re: What does Fezzik do after football season?

Typical I guess, it turns to crickets on here when you put up something anyone can verify for themselves and find out they probably have to rethink their positiion.

Whether youre a math guy, a handicapper, a modelr, or whatever taking league averages andtrying to impose them on every team is just wrong, and dumb.

Even if you want to try an assign a 'probability' of something happening and thus try to 'value' it. You cant just lump everything together and think it is valid.

Like I said there are almost half the teams in the league, that with or without line shopping havent pushed on -3 or +3 since at least 2000 some even way before then. There are also some coaches you could look at (with different teams) that have the same results. Will they in the future? Sure maybe its its the most common point differential but for it to matter the game has to have that spread. THAT is the only percentage you can verify with no question....the number of games overall that end with a 3 point difference. But that too changes from year to year as each new results changes the percentage. That is going to be 501/3161 (15.8%) since 2000. That includes playoffs as well. I remember a few years ago it was over 17.5% so for that to happen the 3 point differential in the past few years has had to have been much lower than the average it is right now. This year it has been 35/264 (13.2%) so far.

I have never been a guy to use past results to predict future events or probability. But I assume that people who try and value the 3 are doing just that. Or they just use whatever Pinnacle has in their drop down as a price and think it is gospel. But as I have shown for over a decade the results are never close to being similar from year to year, and even the average (mean) people claimed was there has shifted 3 or 4 percentage points down, which means the yearly results to do that were much lower than the average prior.

Last point. Of the 501 games since 2000 that finished with one team winning by 3 points. 45 of those, versus a generic widely available closing number ended in a push. So even 'worst case' scenario league wide that is around 9% results. With some line shopping or just buying the game when the line wasnt 3 gives you 11 results only (thats the 2% I alluded to earlier). If you have other books that arent in the list of 16 I used it could even be lower than that. I would say you could get it down to nearly zero. I would almost guarantee it as I dont use any exchanges and very few CR books.

Anyway still waiting on what people would like to offer as a value under certain circumstances.
 
#30
Re: What does Fezzik do after football season?

I like to hear these discussions as usually a few interesting ideas come out.

One thing I'd like to point out is that the NFL, in particular, is changing significant rules just about every season now. This has had high impact on game results. Add in the fact that it is a short season (only 16 regular season games) and it is a statistical crap shoot every year. If you live life *on the edge* (an advantage player, in some folks terms) and don't do much originating (as Fezzik calls it) life around 3s is high adventure. It is less so when you are looking at everything through a simulation, but we are still very careful and try to buy a half point around this number when it makes sense. Most non-modelers will not understand that these situations are model dependent (it goes to the distribution results, and how well fitted the residuals are to actual results).

I will not try to convince anyone of any particular value, it depends on the season, and how well that season's model is working.
 
#31
Re: What does Fezzik do after football season?

I like to hear these discussions as usually a few interesting ideas come out.

One thing I'd like to point out is that the NFL, in particular, is changing significant rules just about every season now. This has had high impact on game results. Add in the fact that it is a short season (only 16 regular season games) and it is a statistical crap shoot every year. If you live life *on the edge* (an advantage player, in some folks terms) and don't do much originating (as Fezzik calls it) life around 3s is high adventure. It is less so when you are looking at everything through a simulation, but we are still very careful and try to buy a half point around this number when it makes sense. Most non-modelers will not understand that these situations are model dependent (it goes to the distribution results, and how well fitted the residuals are to actual results).

I will not try to convince anyone of any particular value, it depends on the season, and how well that season's model is working.
yeah thats all I did this year for the most part was bet overs and unders across the board. First 5 weeks over were money. 4 of the 5 they were very good one week was a loser. Then the next 5 bet straight unders all 5 weeks were profitable. But this year was pretty easy to do that as they changed the rule with the kick off and teams just went pass crazy and defenses were non existent.

My main thing is people who talk about sample size. In the NFL the sample size isnt big enough to worry about anyway, add in all these rule changes and other anomalies and it is eve less relevant. Not that I am a trend guy or anything like that but some of them have merit. Regardless of sample size. Although they need a few qualifiers.

Most of the 'bigger' name touts/handicappers that get some cred here on the forums actually used super systems which were basically trends that had more than an average amount of results coupled with some fairly good success rates and made a name off that. They obviously tailed off but still some people are still living of the rep those things got them.
 
#33
Re: What does Fezzik do after football season?

yeah thats all I did this year for the most part was bet overs and unders across the board. First 5 weeks over were money. 4 of the 5 they were very good one week was a loser. Then the next 5 bet straight unders all 5 weeks were profitable. But this year was pretty easy to do that as they changed the rule with the kick off and teams just went pass crazy and defenses were non existent.

My main thing is people who talk about sample size. In the NFL the sample size isnt big enough to worry about anyway, add in all these rule changes and other anomalies and it is eve less relevant. Not that I am a trend guy or anything like that but some of them have merit. Regardless of sample size. Although they need a few qualifiers.

Most of the 'bigger' name touts/handicappers that get some cred here on the forums actually used super systems which were basically trends that had more than an average amount of results coupled with some fairly good success rates and made a name off that. They obviously tailed off but still some people are still living of the rep those things got them.
This season was among the worst for trends, and yet it resulted in the best NFL model we've ever had. I put that to the lockout. We dug up 1987 and 1982 numbers before the season started to see if we could see anything, and we came up with: offenses would be ahead of defenses early in the season, but we thought defenses would catch back up at end of the year. We expected a lot of injuries and a larger amount of big winners and big losers SU by mid-season.

This largely happened, and now we see defensive teams winning more often in the playoffs (again).

Next year we'll go back to the old shitty win rate, I guess.

We should have a lockout every year...
 
#34
Re: What does Fezzik do after football season?

Math is a starting point, but in no way can be used to actually make bets.

Look at it this way.

20 years ago in baseball they would make run lines and use a chart. If the Cubs OR Dodgers at home was a -150 favorite they would make the run line -1 1/2 (+150) or close to that.

After getting beat on them the books finally realized that games in Chicago were covering the run line a lot more than the games in Los Angeles. It took them a while but they finally realized that laying the run line in Chicago was much more profitable than laying the run line in Los Angeles.

So now when you have both teams a -150 favorite the run line in Chicago would be -1 1/2 (+140) and the run line in Los Angeles should be -1 1/2 (+160). It took them a a while to understand this because math CAN'T be used as an absolute fact.

The math still needs to be adjusted in almost every case! By feel! By the situation!

Math can only help, but everybody has the same math so how much of a help is it really?

And

Who the fuck buys points? :+clueless
 
#35
Re: What does Fezzik do after football season?

Math is a starting point, but in no way can be used to actually make bets.

...yadda, yadda...

The math still needs to be adjusted in almost every case! By feel! By the situation!

Math can only help, but everybody has the same math so how much of a help is it really?

And

Who the fuck buys points? :+clueless
Absolute and utter bullshit.

EVERYTHING CAN BE QUANTIFIED.

If you can't do it, all it means is you are a poor mathematician and/or model builder. Just because you can't do it, does not mean it can't be done.

Go check my NFL thread, you'll see what a decent model can do when everything is clicking.

BTW, baseball guy, in the NFL there is a virtual wall at the number 3 in some seasons. You must always be aware that it can exist.
 
#36
Re: What does Fezzik do after football season?

Absolute and utter bullshit.

EVERYTHING CAN BE QUANTIFIED.

If you can't do it, all it means is you are a poor mathematician and/or model builder. Just because you can't do it, does not mean it can't be done.

Go check my NFL thread, you'll see what a decent model can do when everything is clicking.

BTW, baseball guy, in the NFL there is a virtual wall at the number 3 in some seasons. You must always be aware that it can exist.

You missed my point

All I am saying is it doesn't take math to figure out what is valuable and what isn't.

If you need to look at results to predict the future .... You're never going to make it.
 
#37
Re: What does Fezzik do after football season?

Absolute and utter bullshit.

EVERYTHING CAN BE QUANTIFIED.

If you can't do it, all it means is you are a poor mathematician and/or model builder. Just because you can't do it, does not mean it can't be done.

Go check my NFL thread, you'll see what a decent model can do when everything is clicking.

BTW, baseball guy, in the NFL there is a virtual wall at the number 3 in some seasons. You must always be aware that it can exist.
I don't need math to tell me a 3 in football is key.

The Saints/49er game either side landing 3 would have been awesome, but that didn't happen. I don't need math to tell me how valuable a 3 in football is worth.

Jesus you math guys don't know more than anybody else when it comes to the value of a number.

:shoot:
 
#38
Re: What does Fezzik do after football season?

You missed my point

All I am saying is it doesn't take math to figure out what is valuable and what isn't.

If you need to look at results to predict the future .... You're never going to make it.
Again, pure and utter bullshit: everything we do is looking at results, how else are you going to have some vision into the future? You do it too, you've just snookered yourself in believing you're not doing it.

Again on the math; just because you can't do it, it certainly doesn't mean it is not being done.
 
#40
Re: What does Fezzik do after football season?

I don't need math to tell me a 3 in football is key.

The Saints/49er game either side landing 3 would have been awesome, but that didn't happen. I don't need math to tell me how valuable a 3 in football is worth.

Jesus you math guys don't know more than anybody else when it comes to the value of a number.

:shoot:
Bolded since you said it yourself. Just because it teases people doesnt mean shit. If it doesnt happen it doesnt matter.

The most middles anyone could have since 2000 is 501. To do that you would have to be able to get every single NFL game in that time period -2.5 and +3.5. Thats 3161 games. Obviously you arent going to do that, but it is the only way to get every single middle available.

As you start breaking down subsets and parameters you start to see how the 3 point differential is nearly meaningless in regards to the specifics lines in games where it happens. In other words the chance of a 3 point differential is greater in the NFL as a whole than it is in a game where the spread is between +3 and -3. Meaning just because a game is lined as 'competitive' doesnt mean it will come down to a FG differential.
 
Top