KingRevolver
Born Rambler
Funniest answer possibly gets a one-week pass to Railbird Sports.
Moi, give us a one-liner, and not a soliloquy. Thanks, pal. :scooter
Moi, give us a one-liner, and not a soliloquy. Thanks, pal. :scooter
Watches a ton of porn.
You fellas might be right-- check out the rug on this chap. Holy hell!
LOL the 3 is worth 23-26 cents. I debunked that nonsense a decade ago. It is actually worth even less now than it was then.
Guys continues to show why he loses.
Not sure when the vid was shot or when the comments were made but at no time in the histroy of sports gambling has the 3 ever been worth that much. So it doesnt really matter anyway I guess.
Do you even know how to turn a push percentage into "cents"?
Do you even know how to turn a push percentage into "cents"?
No is off the board.
This is the same guy that claimed if you went 15-25 over 40 plays you should quit bc there is no way you're a winning gambler.
Do you even know how to turn a push percentage into "cents"?
Guess neither of you subscribe to Keep It Simple Stupid
KISS
thats exactly what I do, I dont worry about a 3 line whatsoever therefore I dont worry about the vig it has or how much it is 'worth' to buy off it. Probably the most over rated thing in all of sports betting, although starting pitching in baseball is a close.
I like to hear these discussions as usually a few interesting ideas come out.
One thing I'd like to point out is that the NFL, in particular, is changing significant rules just about every season now. This has had high impact on game results. Add in the fact that it is a short season (only 16 regular season games) and it is a statistical crap shoot every year. If you live life *on the edge* (an advantage player, in some folks terms) and don't do much originating (as Fezzik calls it) life around 3s is high adventure. It is less so when you are looking at everything through a simulation, but we are still very careful and try to buy a half point around this number when it makes sense. Most non-modelers will not understand that these situations are model dependent (it goes to the distribution results, and how well fitted the residuals are to actual results).
I will not try to convince anyone of any particular value, it depends on the season, and how well that season's model is working.
yeah thats all I did this year for the most part was bet overs and unders across the board. First 5 weeks over were money. 4 of the 5 they were very good one week was a loser. Then the next 5 bet straight unders all 5 weeks were profitable. But this year was pretty easy to do that as they changed the rule with the kick off and teams just went pass crazy and defenses were non existent.
My main thing is people who talk about sample size. In the NFL the sample size isnt big enough to worry about anyway, add in all these rule changes and other anomalies and it is eve less relevant. Not that I am a trend guy or anything like that but some of them have merit. Regardless of sample size. Although they need a few qualifiers.
Most of the 'bigger' name touts/handicappers that get some cred here on the forums actually used super systems which were basically trends that had more than an average amount of results coupled with some fairly good success rates and made a name off that. They obviously tailed off but still some people are still living of the rep those things got them.
Math is a starting point, but in no way can be used to actually make bets.
...yadda, yadda...
The math still needs to be adjusted in almost every case! By feel! By the situation!
Math can only help, but everybody has the same math so how much of a help is it really?
And
Who the fuck buys points? :+clueless
Absolute and utter bullshit.
EVERYTHING CAN BE QUANTIFIED.
If you can't do it, all it means is you are a poor mathematician and/or model builder. Just because you can't do it, does not mean it can't be done.
Go check my NFL thread, you'll see what a decent model can do when everything is clicking.
BTW, baseball guy, in the NFL there is a virtual wall at the number 3 in some seasons. You must always be aware that it can exist.
Absolute and utter bullshit.
EVERYTHING CAN BE QUANTIFIED.
If you can't do it, all it means is you are a poor mathematician and/or model builder. Just because you can't do it, does not mean it can't be done.
Go check my NFL thread, you'll see what a decent model can do when everything is clicking.
BTW, baseball guy, in the NFL there is a virtual wall at the number 3 in some seasons. You must always be aware that it can exist.
You missed my point
All I am saying is it doesn't take math to figure out what is valuable and what isn't.
If you need to look at results to predict the future .... You're never going to make it.
I don't need math to tell me a 3 in football is key.
The Saints/49er game either side landing 3 would have been awesome, but that didn't happen. I don't need math to tell me how valuable a 3 in football is worth.
Jesus you math guys don't know more than anybody else when it comes to the value of a number.
:shoot: